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09-02-2014, 09:31 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Parx race 6 9/1/14 Entropy handicapping
This was almost a one horse bet,
This is my look by request from a private email about Parx race 6 from labor day 9/1/14 The race is a CL 7500 for non winners of 4 lifetime These are 3 time winners only females Here are the entries The 3 is a lone Early 7 !!!!! I also have a negative dropper = horse #5 and two horse that Brohamer considers highly suspect because they are last or next to last on virtually ever pace line at the first call. I will work the race in Entropy and base my bets on the final sort Here are some notes I took from my Parx data base The class CL 7.5 N4-L 3 + F The distance of 8.3 This is a uncommon distance for this class for females. My database shows only 5 such prior races for older females.The same class CL7.5N4-L but at 1 mile has 10 races for the exact same time frame. Some stats Pars are 23.7 114.1 145.7 Winners TM speed rating par =81 Ave position F1 4 Ave BL F1 = 3.75 Ave position 2nd call 2 Average bl 2nd call = .0375 Average position stretch 1 Average bl stretch 0 Days since last race Average 32 High 51 Low 14 % early par 68.54 High 69.45 Low 67.61 Running Styles Visual 1 EP 1 Press 1 SP 2 Sus Energy 1 Early 1 EP 1 SP 2 Sus No post 1 winners Records of 5 winners entering the race 3-16 = 18.7% 3-10 = 30% 3-32 = 9.3% 3-14 = 21.4% 3-18 = 16.6% From this I see the 5 previous winners were very close to the front by the second call ------------------------------------------------------------ Now here is my looks ------------------------------------------------------------ Horse 1 Sus Almost a Brohamer throw out as always at or last at the first call. Too slow Par speed rating for this class-distance is 81 She just won at CL7500 N3-L 1 class lower with a 55 Horse 2 Scratch Horse 3 E7 Excuse line 1 and 2 - sprints line 3 is a + line that fits its normal running pattern. Line 4 looks better but its against 3 year olds only. Pace line speed rating is only a 64 but with less pressure today should be able to improve. Horse 4 Sus Terrible win ratio of only 7% Speed rating fits running style but this one is a poor win prospect because its too late style poor %early and early model for this distance. Horse 5 Sus line 2. Speed rating and running style fits. However this is a Negative pattern Claimed for 12.5 but has not run in 59 days. Now is dropped to 7500 N4-L win percentage 12% Horse 6 Sus A. definite Brohamer throw out. Last or near last every race Was up close in the stretch with a drop in class on line 2 but speed rating is too low Horse 7 EP sprinter to the outside of horse 3. line 1 is 5.5 I will use line 2 for pace matching though speed rating is low Horse 8 Press. No form. Was up close at the first call against much tougher but stopped. No point entering this line Into Entropy Right away I will throw out the 1 horse. It is 3 points below the other sustained routers off a win line. Now I see the 7 is causing the 2 adjust. I will use it to even the routers to the sprinter in total energy The 7 now has no advantage in total energy This is one of my favorite features of Entropy . The knock on the 7 is now to too high percent % It is over 70% It will even use more early energy to try to out break the 3 horse because the 3 is to its inside. Now to the final sort The 7 is high with 14 so out it goes The 5 is the negative dropper, the 4 is too low on percent medium Its only hope is that the 3 7 pace dual kills them both The 3 win and pays $16.80 |
09-02-2014, 09:39 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Total energy and results
here is how Entropy adjust the total energy
Results The 7 did break first but it packed it in |
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