Review Aqu race 8 12/31 Lone early Video

[Bill V.]

Here is my video review of todays 8th race at AQU

>> Video. <<

In the video i go over some issues with pace lines and the conditions of the race.

For some reason the video panned in on the last few frames
so I have added the BLBL and result charts here as well as my pace line notes

Aqu race 8 conditions

H1. 1-7 and 1-7 E4 Maiden 30 win line +
H2 1-19 and 1-15 S1 No dirt rt form
H3 1-8 and 1 for 7 EP3 Line 1 +
H4 6-28 and 3-10 SP1 Line 1 +
H5 4-28 and 3-11 EP5 No line 30/1
H6, 2-22 and 1-9 SP1 Line 1 +
H7 1-17 and 1-14 P5 No line 20/1
H8 1-10 amd 1-6 EP5 No dirt form
H9 1-15 and 1-7 E7 Line 1 +
H10 1-8 and 1-8 P5 Sprinter Np line
H11 Scrtach

Top 5 CSR = 1 2 4 9 10
Contenders 1 3 4 6 9

[Bill V.]

problems adding the video
Hope Ted can pop it in for me

[For The Lead]

Good job Bill.
Here's what I noticed.

On the "original screen", it appears there are two early horses, #1 and #9, however, the #1 horse is being evaluated off of its' maiden win, the #9 is not.
ADVANTAGE....#9.

On the "BL/Bl screen", the #1 ranks 5th on "EPR", while the #9 ranks 1st.
ADVANTAGE....#9

Lastly, on the "BL/BL screen", the #9 is the only "early" on the "E/L Diff"
ADVANTAGE....#9

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Good job Bill.
Here's what I noticed.

On the "original screen", it appears there are two early horses, #1 and #9, however, the #1 horse is being evaluated off of its' maiden win, the #9 is not.
ADVANTAGE....#9.

On the "BL/Bl screen", the #1 ranks 5th on "EPR", while the #9 ranks 1st.
ADVANTAGE....#9

Lastly, on the "BL/BL screen", the #9 is the only "early" on the "E/L Diff"
ADVANTAGE....#9
Attachment 33264

Thanks FTL

If I can ever get the video to load onto Pace and cap

I do mention how slow the 1 horse EP rating is
the 7 ran a 90 EPR in its Paceline race
The 1 runs a 81 Thats nine lengths to over come
In Phase 1 and its a very slow EPR

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Thanks FTL

If I can ever get the video to load onto Pace and cap

I do mention how slow the 1 horse EP rating is
the 7 ran a 90 EPR in its Paceline race
The 1 runs a 81 Thats nine lengths to over come
In Phase 1 and its a very slow EPR

Attachment 33268

Bill...

Great point about the 9 lengths that the #1 horse has to overcome as in his last paceline at CD, he literally crawled thru those slow early fractions which the #1 horse will unlikely duplicate in today's matchup with the #9 horse coming off faster early pace fractions even though it was in the slop...

Or we can use a corollary to eliminate the # 1 from win consideration by checking his % median.....I believe that % median of the #1 horse is more than 1.5% below the fulcrum pace of the #9 horse in today's matchup...

The #1 horse will never get a sniff of daylight to grab the lead in today's matchup...It will be too busy playing catchup and wasting valuable early energy in the early chase thus eliminating whatever advantage it has in its late pace from the last paceline which put the #1 horse on top of the readouts in today's matchup...

[Bill V.]

Ted has added the video as a link its in the first post

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...58&postcount=1

>> Video. <<

Thanks FTL and Lone Speed for your input

Happy New Year