Woodbine notes Saturday 4/30

[Bill V.]

Here are some facts from my day at Woodbine
I wanted to record how the Winner and Ex came from the top 5 last line TPR , Pace line TPR and VDC

Top 5 TPR last line
Race 1. 5 3 1 2 6 winner #6 $7.80 Ex 65 $13.65
Race 2. 1 3 4 6 7 Winner # 6 $7.00 Ex. 6,4 $10.30
Race 3. 6 4 5 2 1 Winner # 6 $16.50 Ex. 6,3 $47
Race 4. 9 8 5 6 1 Winner #2 miss Ex 2.5
Race 5 Pass
Race 6 7 4 2 6 1 Winner #4 $3.90 Ex. 4,2 $6.40
Race 7 1 3 2 7 5 Winner #3 $15.00 Ex. Miss
Race 8, Only 5 horses NA
Race 9. 7 2 4 6 5 Winner # 7 $5.50 Ex. 7 6 $17.40
Race 10. 1,10, 2, 3, 6 Winner #6 $6.80 Ex. 6,1 $12.5

Winner top 2 4 times
Ex Top 3 1 time
Ex in top 4 3 times
Ex in top 5 5 times

after picking pace lines
Top 3 TPR
Race 1. 5 3 6 winner #6 $7.80 Ex 65 $13.65
Race 2. 4 1 3 Winner # 6 miss
Race 3. 3 6 4 Winner # 6 $16.50 Ex. 6,3 $47
Race 4. 4 8 5 Winner # 2 miss
Race 5. Pass
Race 6. 7 4 2 Winner #4 $3.90 Ex. 4,2 $6.40
Race 7. 7 1 3 Winner #3 $15.00 Ex. Miss
Race 8 . NA only 5 horses
Race 9. 7 2 5 Winner # 7 $5.50 Ex. Miss
Race 10. 6 1 9 Winner #6 $6.80 Ex. 6,1 $12.5

Top 3 VDC
Race 1. 5 3 6 winner #6 $7.80 Ex 65 $13.65
Race 2 . 4 1 3 Winner # 6 miss
Race 3. 8 6 3 Winner # 6 $16.50 Ex. 6,3 $47
Race 4. 4 8 9 Winner # 2 miss
Race 5. Pass
Race 6. 4 7 2 Winner #4 $3.90 Ex. 4,2 $6.40
Race 7. 2 3 6 Winner #3 $15.00 Ex. Miss
Race 8 . NA only 5 horses
Race 9. 2 6 7 Winner # 7 $5.50 Ex. 7 6 $17.40
Race 10. 9 1 6 Winner #6 $6.80 Ex. 6,1 $12.5

Running styles
Race 1 # 6 EP
Race 2 # 6 Sus
Race 3 #6 Presser
Race 4 #2 Early
Race 5 Pass
Race 6 #4 EP
Race 7 #3 Sus
Race 8 #1 Sus
Race 9 #7 Press
Race 10 # 6 SP

Early - 1
Early Presser 2
Presser 2
Sus Presser 1
Sus 3

[Mitch44]

Bill I would like to make a comment on race # 6 : The # 7 gaps the others on TPR & total energy and is a play . Now for a players 2nd horse the # 2, 4 & 6 are all very close on total energy LPR and TPR. What to do. Normally I would take the better LPR in this case but their so close its not much help.

This is where the new RDSS 2.1 comes in with the V/DC added to the screen. V/DC clearly separated the #2, 4 & 6. Ranking then 4,2,6. This would give you a final ranking of 7-4-2-6. A great result of the winner, ex.& tri. The payoff here is meaningless as this lesson applies to all races and this race could have been the springboard to a rolling DD or P3 or P4. We can't control the payoff.

V/DC measures more than just DCL or 3rd FR deceleration and is a much greater tool to use. If you have it than use it. Far too many fail to use the more advanced readouts in RDSS no matter the version, in many aspects of the game to include picking pace lines.

Of course the question now or the contrarian approach is going to tell me it won't work every time. And no it won't as nothing does however if you keep records you'll find it is an amazing readout and if you had that record I guarantee you would use it more.
Great job on capping at WO Bill, nice lessons.

Mitch44

[Bill V.]

Hey Mitch

Today race 3 Woodbine CL 40 N3-L



Top 5 TPR last line
7 4 5 1 3

fulcrum horse #7 88.7



SAR workouts
#2 #4 #5 #7

Running styles pace lines and PP's

[Bill V.]

horses 1 2 3 4

[Bill V.]

5 6 7

[Bill V.]

The top 3

TPR
1 7 4
VDC
7 1 2-5 tied all very close all all under 1.00

I eliminated the 5 because it was a early router but the 4 7 and 1 had better EPR ratings

I boxed the 1 and 7 I went with the 2 because of its good VDC ratings and EP style and 2nd best LPR

The 2 wins the race at 20/1 I wish I had bet it to win but I got the beauty exacta

[Hoof 11]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Running styles
Race 1 # 6 EP
Race 2 # 6 Sus
Race 3 #6 Presser
Race 4 #2 Early
Race 5 Pass
Race 6 #4 EP
Race 7 #3 Sus
Race 8 #1 Sus
Race 9 #7 Press
Race 10 # 6 SP

Early - 1
Early Presser 2
Presser 2
Sus Presser 1
Sus 3

Hi Bill

I understand that Running Styles can be subjective, but i have to disagree with you on races 2-3-6-10.

Race 1 # 6 EP
Race 2 # 6 P – Horse was 3+ lengths back at the first 2 call points.
Race 3 #6 EP – Horse was within 2 lengths of the lead at first 2 call points
Race 4 #2 E
Race 5 #4 S
Race 6 #4 E – Horse wired the field
Race 7 #3 S
Race 8 #1 S
Race 9 #7 P
Race 10 # 6 P – mid pack 5 lengths back

[Bill V.]

Hi Hoof
I agree with Doc We don't pick our contenders from the result charts
We look at past performances.
yes You could call horse 6's win yesterday a pressing effort but That is based on the match up in a race we did not know would turn out that way before the fact,

I mark my running styles based mostly on two things
Positions and the fulcrum pace
I also look at the break and see how the horse usually runs to the first call
by position.

I use the guidelines from PMTR

Pace Makes The Race Guidelines
Sustained< These horses run in the back half of the field and are usually morse than 4 lengths behind at the second call in a sprint,
and 5 in a route

I look mostly at position
This horse shows 3 plus races
In line 1 in a 7 horse field it was 6th at the first call and 6th at the second call
In line 2 In a 7 horse field it was 4th and 3rd
In line 5 ( turf) in a 11 horse field it was 7th and 7th
It has run against 87 horse in its last 10 races
Its total positions in the first fraction = 59
Its total Positions at the second call = 57
Yes by beaten lengths its has been close but its still closer to the back of the field than the front This horse in its best races is pressing the pressers
What I also look at is the break position
Look how often the 6 breaks 1st or second but then backs up to the back half of the field, Even yesterday it broke 3rd but went back to 4th

[Bill V.]

Race 3
Yes I would have called this one a EP If today was a route.
But
since its plus races are all routes
and its two sprints it showed no ability too be up close, I looked at the POR it has been runnning against = SLOW
In today's race there was no fulcrum The 2 would have qualified except the distance of its last line was only 5.5 furlongs
I figured about a 46.5 EPR and the 6 would be behind a few horses in today's sprint.
Again we don't pick lines from result charts but It did break 4th and went back to 6th then to 3rd at the second call.

[Bill V.]

Yes we could call this one a E. It did go wire to wire in its win
and again yesterday