Santa Anita 3-29

[patecatl]

Would love to hear everyones thoughts on Race 3 tomorrow. Im not the least bit good at Turf races, especially with the dirt section at Santa Anita. Ive seen some horses get spooked if its there first time there. Anyways I have the PPs, thanks in advance

[sudu1234]

my thoughts are a shot . the 2 and 7

[dlivery]

Thanks for the pp's :-)
Will take a look and see

[Lord John]

Pate, here are my thoughts:
8-E horse--blasts to the lead--is the one to catch
3-E has proven he can only win wire to wire but not fast enough-out
1-very suspect/ record shows a lot of layoffs, for me--out
2-has won at this distance twice BUT has to be within 2 lengths and at least 3rd to win--most likely won't get that today though last race shows she's in form--contender for now
4-very fast horse for final time BUT the +'s and 0's show that she hasn't been able to close the deal very often. She definitely has run against faster splits but the layoff concerns me and this field isn't weak. Because of Final time for me Contender for now
5-At 4-1 ML I'm licking my chops!!! Just missed last out and more importantly she was leading at the 8.0 furlong point. Has won at higher and can overcome a 23.0 first call. She has proven that she can run a sub 23 final quarter. My first OTE pick.
6-the unknown stretch-out ran evenly last out. Maybe
7-good horse. comes out of the same race as the 5 and 2. Honestly I believe the 5 is a faster horse at this distance.
Pate-The 8 is a very fast horse and his last line proves he can fight. Of the contenders-2, 4, 5, 6 and 7...I believe the 5 has the best shot at running down the 8. I would pick the 2 but I think the 2 needs more distance. Nonetheless the 2 will be flying late. So going with two horses I'm thinking a wire to wire job with 8 and the 5 as my OTE pick.
Let's see what others think. Good Luck!!!

[Bill Lyster]

8 is the one to catch and is too fast for the 3; the 5 and 7 are too slow for this pace and the 6 runs from 4th or 5th or a little better but just where it needs to today with 2 E and 1 EP, plus its only group/grade 3 winner in field.

If not challenged 8 wins, but I think 6 gets her at wire in chalkfest.

Bill

[patecatl]

I agree I think the 8 is the one to catch. I like 8 and 5

[Bill Lyster]

The hard one to gauge here is the six, because if we look only at total energy and adjust speed rating this horse would not qualify normally. This horse's 74 ASR is really equivalent to about an 79-81 on any turf surface other than the SA 6.5 downhill turf course. RDSS cannot calc it properly because true distance is 6.41 furlongs, give or take. The fact that in my readouts it is 3rd BL makes it even stronger IMHO.

In fact the 6 is 4th TE and 3rd best ASR with the lines I chose for this race, unfortunately not much price here, especially since Hollendorfer has been winning almost everything lately.

Good luck

[Ted Craven]

#6 still needs to prove it can get 8f again (i.e. since 1.5 years ago in Leister). Agreed it will be among the closers, but there are good closers here in the #2 and #5. In fact, the #5 is a former closer with a new EP strategy who will try to soften up the must-lead #8 and today does not face the same early speedball of its last race, so can possibly improve (and will need to).

it would not surprise me if at least one if not 2 horses from that Feb 23 Tandem of #2 #5 and #7 were there at the end.

The #2 and #5 still look like potent OTE's to catch the #8. So much closely matched ability here that odds will likely be very evenly matched - possibly 3 horses under 7/2. I'll check to see if any profit is available in a 4 horse Exacta dutch near post time.

Ted

[lone speed]

This race comes down to whether the #8 horse, Black Tonic bounces off his huge effort.....

But looking at how he earned the last paceline,it looks like he paired up the two races before the huge race at Sa....#8 Black Tonic controls the first two fractions in this matchup....he should dictate his own pace and run a huge 3rd fraction...

Any contenders coming off 1:13 fractions will be at a huge disadvantage even with their sub 23.0 3rd fraction....

The #8 should dominate...he is the Lone Speed......

Peter Miller who trains #4 Caelis and enter his horse in this race should have his steed prepared for this race...This one had faced similiar fractions to the expected pace today....

Good skills...

[patecatl]

2 got scratched