The Hats Equalization Times

[Jeebs]

Mark, my comment is something based on suggestions given in the book, Pace Makes The Race. Tom Hambleton suggested subtracting fractions by 2/5 and halving the beaten lengths. However in RDSS, the times are normalized by the gaps between distances. I was not sure if RDSS employed both adjustments in tandem or just the gap equalization with the beaten lengths halved. I know sprint to route, there needs to be some sort of adjustment or else it makes some sprinters stretching out appear faster than they really are. Case in point, there was such the case in the opener at Mahoning Valley yesterday. When I adjusted their 6F times, their half and 3/4 times were much faster than the rest of the field. Of course, no adjustment is foolproof.

FWIW, I have been fooling around with spreadsheets lately, employing manual entry of the Timeform US adjusted times for each individual horse since they are already variant and track to track adjusted. My original plan was trying to extrapolate times using just the pace and speed figures but the times created proved too suspect and inconsistent.

Originally Posted by Mark

No! What you are doing is removing the influence of the second turn. Horses slow down on the turns or they can't run as fast as on a straightaway because of the centrifugal forces.
Bradshaw was not interested in finding the fastest final time, he seldom took his analysis passed the Stretch Call as I understand from his writings and Richie P. The early pace was his focus. To finish a horse has to handle the early fractions in today's race. What will it do to the early speed horses? Who can press that pace and survive and not get caught by some late runner. This has nothing to do with final time.
If you have the ability to project the 1st and 2nd calls in today's race you can 1) Figure out who has successful run against it in their pps,2) Will a speed duel result among the Es and EPs and if not you very well can have a LONE F, 3) Who has the correct Running Style to get into or stay in contention through the 2nd call, 4) Who has demonstrated the ability to run against this pace and close or press past the leaders.
In my opinion, you have to visualize what is going to happen early in a race by looking at each horse, determining his Running Style or the way he distributes his energy from all the pacelines in his pps where he wins or runs very close. Then decide what kind of pace the early runners are going to set and what kind of battle is going to take place up front. If you don't find a horse that can run comfortably in the lead without excessive challenges then you have to look OTE and find the horses that have shown they can successful close on that early pace.

[Mark]

I am not sure what Ted uses in RDSS for his stretch outs and cutbacks. I read somewhere in his release notes what he did but have forgotten. When I look at a horse stretching out or cutting back in a race and he doesn't show any similar races in his pps I always ask myself why is the trainer doing this? Is he just a slow horse? Is he just a Speedball? Is the trainer just conditioning the animal as he has had a recent layoff? Is he at his wit's end and just trying something different? If he is a sprinter stretching out is he a young horse, lightly raced or an older cheaper claimer with his best days on the track behind him? There are valid reasons to make distance and even surface switches employed by sharp horsemen. You have to make a couple of decisions about these horses 1) will he have any impact on the pace of the race that I should take into consideration? 2) is this horse a Contender? Then proceed.

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Mark

Bill,
I view 1 turn miles as elongated sprints and no adjustment is made to the internal fractions.

Thanks mark, that is what I do as well. I was hoping it was the right way.

When Hollywood used to run one turn miles the six furlong times compared to SA miles were about 5 ticks faster and the 8 furlong times about 8 ticks faster, just to give an idea of how the extra turn causes the horses to run slower.

[Mark]

Bill,
I have been around the Sartin Methodology since the early 90s and have read and studied all the materials I could get my hands on as well as attend a number of seminars. But frankly, this last 4 years I have attempted to learn the Match Up exclusively. All I am doing is paraphrasing what I know that Jim Bradshaw said or wrote or conveyed through Richie P. I came no credit whatsoever.
The Match Up is foreign to any other handicapping methodology. Your focus is not on final time but how a horse reacts and performs to early pace. While everyone is trying to make the perfect adjustment, Matchers are focused to the left. The mutuels are much, much better and while it takes a lot of work and study and practice, I would never go back.

[Tim Y]

Marc Cramer has an interesting pace alteration based upon the first fraction: faster the better.

I have used it for some time to discover many a long shot.

[Mark]

I've read most of what he has written and don't recall anything regarding 1st fraction adjustment. He's living in France now and I think for about the last 10 years or so, so this must have been written before then. No racing form for European racing.

Speed and quickness. For many years I subscribed to "The Bloodhorse" magazine which was just packed with breeding and racing information. One of the many things I noticed was the horses in training 2yo sale which occurred annually in Florida. These two year olds were breezed and then worked 1 furlong. Every year the fastest workers brought the most money pedigree aside. Horses that worked near 10 seconds flat brought very good money. I never understood this until I began my study of the Match Up. What does a single furlong tell you when the majority of the purse money for Thoroughbred was in route racing. Well, I am learning! Slow horses will forever be relegated to front end meltdown and racing luck. Speed and the ability to carry it over a distance of ground is the hallmark of the Thoroughbred!

[Tim Y]

quote: "Speed and the ability to carry it over a distance of ground is the hallmark of the Thoroughbred!"

Yes the better ones do it FAR MORE often than most realize: the front end is the CORE of racing that the field reacts TO. Passive pace does not have as much a chance to score.

[CEW]

Hi guys -

Totally unrelated, but I've been in touch with Mark Cramer due to the fact that he is in to bicycling. I did a ride across the United States and he was quite interested in the details. This was about 5 years ago. Correct, he is in France.

When we were communicating, I told him I doubt he remembered, but we met each other at the Baltimore seminar in about 1991. We spoke for maybe 5 minutes. A few seconds later, I was able to talk to Tom Ainsle. Ainsle told me that after all he had been through in racing, at this point (in 1991), he was selecting contenders, running them through Thoromation, and going out to Yonkers to play them.

Just thought I would toss that memory in here!

Best,

Chuck

[tom]

Chuck,

I was at the seminar. Maybe we met there?
I remember Saturday night in the bar, I was sitting at a table with Ainslie, Crammer, Brohammer, Doc, Hat, and thinking, maybe this how the Bilderbergs started out!

[CEW]

Hi Tom -

This was right in the middle of one of the days - probably Saturday - in the seminar room, although I would have like to have been at the bar with that list of names!

Ainsle said something like: 'You know, this Thoromation is really something. I used to do all this work, and now I just put my contenders in and go to the track'.

He also told me he was partners with Henry Kuck on the speed ratings they developed and sold. But Tom broke off from Henry at some point.

Best!

Chuck