Need Help Finding the Win Bet

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by CaptDon100

Hi Ted #5 is a Fighter, I must have the definition wrong. What do you consider a Fighter?
Thanks

Don,

I consider a 'Fighter' to be one who is in 1st or 2nd position within .5 lengths (ahead or behind). That's why you see the position italicized and and the beaten lengths italicized and underlined. The #5 is the only horse here who (consistently) fits that bill. Watch the replay - the 4 and 5 were often along side and right next to each other. They were 'fighting' with each other to get their nose infront - not letting the other get away with it. The #4 never typically did that before (except for line #7), needing open lengths last race.



The Fighter Earlies will often run on until one gets its way, or they tire each other out completely. This is distinct from the kind of Early horse who needs open lengths ( > .5 lengths and often a full length ahead) and a pace to support that. If they are challenged by a Fighter style early, they often collapse. Here, the #4 got an open length lead over the #5 the entire first 2f, and at a F1 time (24.5) we know the #5 cannot survive.

HTH,

Ted

[Capcondo]

First off, I'm a matcher. This post seems to talk a great deal about matching concepts which is good. So I'll pipe in here. Secondly, based on Ted's screen prints, I'm know I wouldn't have gotten the winner. However, when he showed the 1 total past performance, you can see that there wasn't a pace he might face today he couldn't handle. What's more, his running style had changed in the last three races to become an OTE horse.

Three more points:

Ted correctly analyzed this race as OTE (nice call). The 1 had a slow pace to run against in each of his last three races. As a sustained horse, he can only run against the pace of the horses in front of him.

His last three races all show power moves (gaining position from the first to second or second to third call). This is a good thing.

Deeper in his PPs, he showed that he could run closer to the pace which he did today. The chart shows he sat 4th at the first call today.

[CaptDon100]

This is where I get lost. After I take my time and pick pace lines, I have trouble seeing the race.
I look at the segment screen at each position and see who will win each one.
I look at beaten lengths, I look but is put more into the running positions on the screen. I then look at TPR screen and see if the CPR is between the 1st and 2nd pick.
I then go to BL/BL screen to see the top four then check the Segment screen.
I know there are video's I have watched, and have not grasped the concept
of seeing the race. I am back to the 1st post, After I pick my pace line where
do I go.
Thanks for all for taking the time to reply, This probably has already been
addressed already, but I can't seem to grasp it. I know it's right in front of me.

Thanks Don

[Appy]

"I know it's right in front of me."

CaptDon, I've been training horses and involved in horse racing to one degree or another for the better part of 6 decades, but have only taken a serious interest in handicapping in the last year or so. And I'm right there with you!
I'm just starting to see it happen. You're looking, and learning the right way to look by threads like this one (thanks for starting it!). We just need to keep practicing.
Sun comes up after every dark night.

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by Appy

Sun comes up after every dark night.

As George Harrison once said " Daylight is good at arriving at the right time".

You are not alone Don, we all struggle with this.

There is a treasure trove of information here which will help light the way. Read, read and read some more. There are no shortcuts.

[JIMBOB1002]

Thanks Bill. The shirt is little small for me right now
but if I can keep losing weight I will get in it soon.
Its been really cold and snowy here but this weekend
its going to get about 60, oh well thats OHIO weather
for ya.

[JIMBOB1002]

Originally Posted by noddub62

nice win JimBob

Thanks Budman.

[JIMBOB1002]

Originally Posted by Segwin

Nice hit Jim!

Thanks Terry

[JIMBOB1002]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Nicely done Jim! I made a judgement call whether the #1 was going to close any better against the projected pace than it didn't in its 2nd back (25.3 49.4). I could forgive the last race as way too fast a pace for it - but not 2 races in a row. I hope I would make the same kind of judgement (was it fit today, did it have an excuse) the next time and win because of it

The analysis was correct - the 4 and 5 dueled each other throughout (though the 5 did not get it's F1 lead - the kiss of doom) - setting up for an OTE.

It's nice to see that it ranks on top on its natural line selection (Line 3) - but I would still have had trouble selecting it over the 2 or 4, even if I thought it was a Win contender today.

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Thanks Ted