Ote - Pace and Cap

Segwin · 03-20-2014, 08:33 AM

Are OTE less likely to show up on a 5F race?

The Pook · 03-20-2014, 03:51 PM

The shorter the race, the less likely.

DontSayDont · 03-21-2014, 06:54 AM

Not a large sample but here are the positional calls and beaten lengths from races run this year at GP and Tam.

Trk 1C 1cBL 2C 2cBL StC StC BL # of Races
GP 2.7 1.4 2.4 1.3 1.7 0.6 60
Tam 3.7 2.2 2.8 1.8 1.9 0.7 45

This was taken from Turf and Dirt races. Looks like positionally a horse can be a bit further back at First Call at Tampa. After that both clearly show that a horse, on average, must be up close to the pace at this distance.

Sorry but I couldn't get the info. to load in a cleaner form. Looked good while I was working on it but got messy when submitted.

Ray

Segwin · 03-21-2014, 07:04 AM

Thanks much for taking the time to post that Ray.

DontSayDont · 03-21-2014, 07:50 AM

Segwin,

I was just entering yesterdays races for GP and they ran 2 more 5 furlong turf races. Pace 'can' still have an outcome in these races. The first race ran to average, then the second race the splits were 20.4 and 43.0. In that race the winner was 5th by 4 lengths at 2nd call. Just a bit farther back than the average for the distance. Still fairly form-full as the winner went off at 1.5:1.

At this time, GP uses the "outer" course for their 5 furlong races. The turn shouldn't be as tight.

Ray

Segwin · 03-21-2014, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DontSayDont

Segwin,

I was just entering yesterdays races for GP and they ran 2 more 5 furlong turf races. Pace 'can' still have an outcome in these races. The first race ran to average, then the second race the splits were 20.4 and 43.0. In that race the winner was 5th by 4 lengths at 2nd call. Just a bit farther back than the average for the distance. Still fairly form-full as the winner went off at 1.5:1.

At this time, GP uses the "outer" course for their 5 furlong races. The turn shouldn't be as tight.

Ray

Thanks Ray. The race that prompted this question was the 9th at GP yesterday.

I was interested in the 2 horse as the OTE. The results speak for themselves (plus the 2 was going from dirt to turf 1st time).

Thanks for your help.

Bill Lyster · 03-21-2014, 01:27 PM

From my point of view I see a lot of the shorter races being entered by trainers whose horses can only go for the lead, both dirt and turf (and especially turf), so while I still have to find the best early horse, many times it becomes a front end battle with the pieces picked up by those that can comfortably rest in the 4-6 hole and still finish. Best prices coming from OTE types in these races. IMHO

03-20-2014, 08:33 AM	#1
Segwin Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Cleveland, Ohio Posts: 624	Ote Are OTE less likely to show up on a 5F race? __________________ Terry

03-21-2014, 06:54 AM	#3
DontSayDont Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 106	Not a large sample but here are the positional calls and beaten lengths from races run this year at GP and Tam. Trk 1C 1cBL 2C 2cBL StC StC BL # of Races GP 2.7 1.4 2.4 1.3 1.7 0.6 60 Tam 3.7 2.2 2.8 1.8 1.9 0.7 45 This was taken from Turf and Dirt races. Looks like positionally a horse can be a bit further back at First Call at Tampa. After that both clearly show that a horse, on average, must be up close to the pace at this distance. Sorry but I couldn't get the info. to load in a cleaner form. Looked good while I was working on it but got messy when submitted. Ray

03-21-2014, 07:04 AM	#4
Segwin Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Cleveland, Ohio Posts: 624	Thanks much for taking the time to post that Ray. __________________ Terry

03-20-2014, 03:51 PM	#2
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,539	The shorter the race, the less likely.

03-21-2014, 07:50 AM	#5
DontSayDont Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 106	Segwin, I was just entering yesterdays races for GP and they ran 2 more 5 furlong turf races. Pace 'can' still have an outcome in these races. The first race ran to average, then the second race the splits were 20.4 and 43.0. In that race the winner was 5th by 4 lengths at 2nd call. Just a bit farther back than the average for the distance. Still fairly form-full as the winner went off at 1.5:1. At this time, GP uses the "outer" course for their 5 furlong races. The turn shouldn't be as tight. Ray

03-21-2014, 01:27 PM	#7
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	From my point of view I see a lot of the shorter races being entered by trainers whose horses can only go for the lead, both dirt and turf (and especially turf), so while I still have to find the best early horse, many times it becomes a front end battle with the pieces picked up by those that can comfortably rest in the 4-6 hole and still finish. Best prices coming from OTE types in these races. IMHO