2 BLBL's Hiding the favorite - Pace and Cap

Bill V. · 03-01-2009, 10:13 AM

Basic Sartin Methodology
Hiding the favorite and reordering of bottom line tiers

_____________________________________________________________
Hello Ted

This is an example of what I was asking about
Will it be possible to have 2 bottom line betting lines
both being active at the same time. See my screen shot
The top BLBL is Before Hides
The bottom BLBL is after Hides

This screen shot is from Delta Race 6 2/28
The Horse tiered 1 is the #1 horse It was a big favorite and a
hide horse It went off at .80 /1

Before hides the tiers were 1,9,4,5,3
After I hide the 1 the After hides BLBL shows how the 5 moves up
over the 4
Most people think that the order would stay the same
since the top rated horse is out, every thing underneath would move up
one spot, but many times the tiers get reshuffled and as is in this case
These improved position horse can lead to a wagering decision.

The 5 moved up 2 places Sometimes horse move up 3 places
These position improver horses have been doing well for me.

Doc writes about doing this in follow up 71 and It is the basis of
wagercapping

I would love to see something like two BLBL
One for Before hides and One for after hides

BTW the 1 horse won at short odds
the 5 placed and the 3 at 22/1 showed
I missed the win bets on the 9 and 5 but got the 1/5 exacta

froggy · 03-02-2009, 10:45 PM

BL/BL and V/DC facts.

I have found that going against the top tiered horses, especially if one is "odds on", can be devastating to your bankroll. I have had as many as 9 straight losses to the favorite.
For me at the big "A" the best thing is to just wait until you get good odds on the top two tiered horses. This past Sunday was a good example. I bet five and won five. Lowest mutual was $8 and highest was $29. This was on the top two V/dc.
Waggercapping is now something in the past for me. I just bet the top two or pass if I can't get 66 cents on the dollar. Less volatility. When one has no other income why gamble with your money.

Respectfully,
The Frogman

Bill V. · 03-03-2009, 03:39 AM

your post shows examples of 2 other basic Sartin Methodology Guidelines

1. You keep records ...
Its good that you know, at the tracks you play where your winners are coming from In your case, your top two tiers

2. You have the ability to pass races ...
If you wagercap/ then bet every race at some tracks Its very likely
you will lose. The key is knowing which races to pass and from what tier your winners most often appear at the tracks you play and based on your pace line contender selections

I find that at the tracks I work my winners were coming from tiers 2 and either 3 or 4
and generally the tier 1 favorites are over bet from pace lines were the horse peaked

I do not wager at the Big A or Santa Anita So thanks for your information

GS
Bill

bobp · 03-10-2009, 08:21 PM

Good advice Froggy. In checking my records works well for me too!
Bobp

Quote:

Originally Posted by froggy

BL/BL and V/DC facts.

I have found that going against the top tiered horses, especially if one is "odds on", can be devastating to your bankroll. I have had as many as 9 straight losses to the favorite.
For me at the big "A" the best thing is to just wait until you get good odds on the top two tiered horses. This past Sunday was a good example. I bet five and won five. Lowest mutual was $8 and highest was $29. This was on the top two V/dc.
Waggercapping is now something in the past for me. I just bet the top two or pass if I can't get 66 cents on the dollar. Less volatility. When one has no other income why gamble with your money.

Respectfully,
The Frogman

03-03-2009, 03:39 AM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Knowing your post shows examples of 2 other basic Sartin Methodology Guidelines 1. You keep records ... Its good that you know, at the tracks you play where your winners are coming from In your case, your top two tiers 2. You have the ability to pass races ... If you wagercap/ then bet every race at some tracks Its very likely you will lose. The key is knowing which races to pass and from what tier your winners most often appear at the tracks you play and based on your pace line contender selections I find that at the tracks I work my winners were coming from tiers 2 and either 3 or 4 and generally the tier 1 favorites are over bet from pace lines were the horse peaked I do not wager at the Big A or Santa Anita So thanks for your information GS Bill

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03-01-2009, 10:13 AM	#1
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	2 BLBL's Hiding the favorite Basic Sartin Methodology Hiding the favorite and reordering of bottom line tiers _____________________________________________________________ Hello Ted This is an example of what I was asking about Will it be possible to have 2 bottom line betting lines both being active at the same time. See my screen shot The top BLBL is Before Hides The bottom BLBL is after Hides This screen shot is from Delta Race 6 2/28 The Horse tiered 1 is the #1 horse It was a big favorite and a hide horse It went off at .80 /1 Before hides the tiers were 1,9,4,5,3 After I hide the 1 the After hides BLBL shows how the 5 moves up over the 4 Most people think that the order would stay the same since the top rated horse is out, every thing underneath would move up one spot, but many times the tiers get reshuffled and as is in this case These improved position horse can lead to a wagering decision. The 5 moved up 2 places Sometimes horse move up 3 places These position improver horses have been doing well for me. Doc writes about doing this in follow up 71 and It is the basis of wagercapping I would love to see something like two BLBL One for Before hides and One for after hides BTW the 1 horse won at short odds the 5 placed and the 3 at 22/1 showed I missed the win bets on the 9 and 5 but got the 1/5 exacta Attached Images

03-02-2009, 10:45 PM	#2
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	BL/BL and V/DC facts. I have found that going against the top tiered horses, especially if one is "odds on", can be devastating to your bankroll. I have had as many as 9 straight losses to the favorite. For me at the big "A" the best thing is to just wait until you get good odds on the top two tiered horses. This past Sunday was a good example. I bet five and won five. Lowest mutual was $8 and highest was $29. This was on the top two V/dc. Waggercapping is now something in the past for me. I just bet the top two or pass if I can't get 66 cents on the dollar. Less volatility. When one has no other income why gamble with your money. Respectfully, The Frogman