Last race winners Problem race

[Bill V.]

Yesterday was the big day with 2 of the major derby prep races , the Wood
and the Santa Anita, It was fun seeing
Keeneland and I even saw some turf races at Pimlico.
Yet my play of the day was this horse at Parx.
Race 8 was a NW1X AL. Of the 8 horses this horse and the 2 horse
( a sprinter ) were the only horses with plus pacelines and wins against winners
The rest only had recent MS or MC wins
The 3 was my play of the day I would have been happy to get the 5/2 ML
odds. It went off at 3/1. I put a full bet on it and a small bet on the 4
horse .
I mentioned in the make money with early thread, about horses improving,
or maintaining the selected paceline ability. I felt that the 3 after the last
OC win and a 30 day freshening with a 7 day workout would be fit and ready
We will never know as the horse stumbled and the jockey feel off at the gate.
I did learn something from this race. I wonder if anybody else might find this lesson. Give the horse a look and see if you see
what I learned, nothing works 100 percent in racing but hopefully this horse
will show you something to consider when your top selection may not
run its race.

FTL knew I was going to make this play and he sent me a nice message last night
what do you think ?Do you see a possible negative ?

Bill

[lone speed]

Hello Bill.....

A couple of comments:

1) As you mentioned, we will never know as the horse dropped the jockey.

2) The last paceline was the horse's best line---highest speed rating- unadjusted.

3)Most importantly, it would be nice to see the %percent median of this matchup. I am curious if this horse's percent median is deficient compare to the top contenders in this matchup....(deficient by more than 1.5pts)

It appears that this one had a soft early pace from the last paceline (raw fractions) In today's matchup, we have a sprinter coming from faster pace fractions. (I am presuming)

Even if the jockey did not fall, I am willing to surmise that this horse would have falter late due to a faster early pace expenditure.

[dogkatcher]

Possibilities

Breaking slower each of last 2 starts.

May be at end of form cycle, life and death to hang on in last
compared to 2 easy previous wins.

Dropping in class track wise Aqu - Prx, slightly cold on tote????

Rumor jockey had a big hangover

[Bill V.]

Some good stuff so far ..

I am going to post the rest of the horses PP's
Hope this helps

[Bill V.]

the rest

[dogkatcher]

Bill, normally you don't show the workouts. Perhaps the negative factor
could be the driving workout, which you don't see very often.

I hope that's driving and not dogs up, like they show for turf works. The condition was a fast track so I think it's driving.

Anxious to know what you now know. Have a great day. Where's Columbo when you need him.

[ABaze]

Horse overcame slow fractions in its MSW win in route race. High APV, and there was a 28 day gap between works. Something that intrigued you in another thread. Been lurking

[dogkatcher]

Bill, curiosity killed the cat, and getting close for dogkatcher........

[Bill V.]

All those who replied have good reasons why the 3 might not repeat
its pace line effort. I would just add that statistically very few horses win 4 races in a row after winning a MC.

[For The Lead]

Bill V has it pretty much correct.
I did the research and here are my findings covering a two year period.

When a horse wins its' last race and not the race before that, (71,952 trials) it will win 2 in a row approximately 17% of the time
When a horse wins its' last two races and not the one before those two, (12,442 trials) it will win 3 in a row approximately 4% of the time
When a horse wins its' last three and not the one before those three, (2,690 trials) it will win 4 in a row approximately 1% of the time.
All percentages have been rounded.

As you can see, the chances of a horse winning 4 in a row are not very good.
For that matter, the chances of a horse winning 3 in a row is not very good.

One correction to what Bill V wrote is, it doesn't matter if the first win was in a Maiden Claimer, a Grade I race or any type of race in between, my research included all types of races.

I didn't take my research beyond the statistics shown above, but I think it is reasonable to conclude that the higher class horses will win consecutive races more often than lower class horses.