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RDSS 2.2 (and previous versions) Racing Decision Support System - The NEW Version 2.2 |
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03-21-2018, 09:41 AM | #21 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Bill, you look mighty sporty in that trilby.
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03-21-2018, 10:38 AM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,539
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Hey guys,
I am interested in getting opinions on what I think is an interesting predictive factor from my record keeping. I am always looking for ways to reduce the work load and spend more time matching the contenders that matter. I have a database for two years of all the tracks I play. It includes only non-maiden races of 7 or more horses running on non-off surfaces. So for 2016/2017 a total of 10,000 races breaks down to about 4500 dirt sprints, 2500 dirt routes, 2500 turf routes, and 500 turf sprints. Of the factors to the left on the entries screen that aren’t affected by paceline selection Composite Speed Rating or CSR averages out with the winner coming from the top 4, 70% of the time. Is this not fairly impressive? More specifically DS=73%, DR=72%, TR=65%, and TS=68%. Betting on the top CSR horse alone returns -13% ROI. Now when you read the Matchup section you frequently come across The Hat telling Rich that he likes fast horses. He only bets on fast horses. Makes sense that the top 4 CSR horses are fast horses. APV and CR or CR+ don’t match this level of performance. I didn’t have PL at the time so I have no stats for that. Keep in mind that this excludes short fields. With fields of 6 or less included the number jumps to 75%. The races were done for the purpose of the database with auto paceline best of last three comparable. With that the RX1 factor comes in at 60% top 4. Didn’t have RX2 and RX3. Nothing close to 85% that some of you have reported. I just find it interesting that without doing any handicapping or paceline selection at all there is a way to be working with the winner 70% of the time when looking at top 4 CSR. Any of your large databases should reflect the same thing. I didn’t do anything special except keep the database. Is there something here? Pook |
03-21-2018, 10:54 AM | #23 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Pook :
No it's not impressive. CSR is a product of final tine or final speed. It doesn't tell how it was achieved. The match up is about how it was earned or achieved. Strive for your winner in your top 4 Above 80% of the time . Have to run for a DR apt, later. Hopes this helps. Mitch4, |
03-24-2018, 03:20 PM | #24 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: central islip ny
Posts: 1,091
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based on a comment by bill v a couple of weeks back, i rechecked my database. I found that 88% of my winners have a bl/bl score greater than 10, regardless of distance. My database consists only of AQU races and numbers approximately 110 races
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Check out my daily picks for Saratoga in the Saratoga Special http://www.thisishorseracing.com Last edited by gandalf380; 03-24-2018 at 03:31 PM. |
03-25-2018, 04:51 AM | #25 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Very nice work Charlie. Great info.
Mitch44 |
03-27-2018, 10:19 AM | #26 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Follow up to Richard's posts
I've been mulling over Richard's thoughtful posts on this thread and decided to do a little work in Access combining Rx win percentages and win payouts. This chart deals solely with Rx3 and dirt sprints. While he wrote in terms of Expected Value (EV), I'm more accustomed with the $1 ROI. The lesson here is that you shouldn't blindly bet one of the top three Rx3 horses. Handicapping is still required. The fourth ranked Rx3 horse is a puzzle though. I scanned the payouts and with the exception of two big numbers, most of the payouts are healthy double digits.
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03-27-2018, 11:05 AM | #27 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,158
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Nice stats Mick. The prices are in line with what should be expected to happen when the winner performs to its tier level. You are correct that tier levels must not be blindly accepted. I, myself, routinely move horses up or down the tier levels based on handicapping factors not part of the Methodology. And remember that Doc always stated that your win bets should be your top 2 horses not the programs' top 2.
Tim
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Trust but verify |
03-27-2018, 12:45 PM | #28 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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That's a lot of work Mick, eventually hard work pays dividends. Excellent point in that handicapping is still required.
Mitch44 |
03-29-2018, 08:29 AM | #29 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Richard and Mick
Hi Richard and Mick
I'm sorry for the delay in getting this report done I have been having some more health issues. Feeling better, Here is my report My model is up to 111 races ( actually bet) Races from 2/24/18 to 3/28/18 These results are from. All race distances and surfaces Non-maiden only Field of 6 or more Tracks Aqu, Parx, Lrl, OP, GP, Tam, FG, SA, GG Contender and paceline selection method -FTL guidelines. In all 3 categories, RX 3 outperforms the public in top 4 win% and odds. |
03-29-2018, 09:52 AM | #30 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Bill,
First, I want to commend you for the amount of work you put into your statistics. And second I want to tell you how impressed I am at your ability to pick pacelines. Those odds in the third box are amazing. Wow. Betting a single horse, you only have to hit about one in four to make a profit. In my dreams ... |
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