Marathons, Marathons and more Marathons Saturday at Arlington - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 08-07-2009, 10:03 PM

Race 7 Secretariat 10 furlongs, 3 YO

Best Mile time is the 4 - Laureate Conductor and he will either lead or track lead; comes off 111.7-135.2 effort about a half length off the lead - 135.3; ran 2-2-1, but I think he can be closed on by others

5 - Oil Man - 135.9 or 135.8 in races with paces of 111.2-135.1 and 110.9-135.1; power moved 9-6-1 and 10-9-4, so I like its 135.9 effort because of the PM

1A Driving Snow - 136.2 on a pace of 110.8-136.2; moved 4-2-1; probably gets first move on the 4, but I think the 4 can beat him.

6 - Quite a Handful - 136.6 off a pace of 110.8-136.2 in a tandem with the 1A; moved 6-3-2. No.

8 - Reb - DQ'd in last; has run 136.7 and 136.2 on paces of 112.2-136.7 and 113.2-142.4; moved 5-3-1 and 11-8-2. In both moves he made up 5 or more lengths between the first and 2nd route calls; won one race and lost by 3/4 L. This horse seems to have best closing speed even on slow-paced races

The 9 is a foreign horse owned by Americans. The comments from his last race at 12 F said beaten 2F out. If that means he was competitive to that point and you adjust his 12F time you get 136.4 (but you do not know lengths back) This is the mystery horse for me.

The 10 runs 137.2 off a 113.8 6f time, so I think he cant win. Best is probably show.

The 5 and 8 have shown some good power moves and look to me more sustained than the 4, so they are my win bets. The foreigner, the 9, could get a piece with the 10 getting 3rd.

So I will box the top 2 and use them on top to the 4-9-10 for exotics.

On to the Beverly D next post.

Bill Lyster · 08-07-2009, 10:29 PM

Three foreign horses make this race pretty tough to get warm and fuzzy.

The 1 Alnadana has run a mile in 137 not bad by European standards but that was a year ago in Italy, so probably not the highest competition.

Neither the 5 or the 8 have times that convert to competitive ones. Lately the 5 has run up to a mile; last year ran 12 and 10f races.

the 8 Denomination is a Grade 1 winner this year at 10f so has to be respected.

The locals:

3 - Points last raced at Woodbine in 133.3 with a 2.5 L comfort margin at the mile which was hardly compromised on the run in. Keep;

7 - Dynaforce has a 134.7 with the lead but in most of his races he fades after a mile, so he is out.

2 - Pure Clan and 4 - Black Mamba run about 135.4 and 135.3 respectively; both have good power moves - 7-4-1 and 4-3-1 with Black mamba running from 4th position making up 4.5 lengths while gaining a position. BM finished in 159.7. Pure Clan closed 1.6 and 0.8 lengths to finish in 200.5, so a slight nod goes to Black Mamba between these two.

the 2-3-4 are kind of chalky, but if the 8 is the real deal it could help the pricing here. I think the odds on the 3 should rise, meaning that the 2 and 4 are likely to be even lower than the ML.

Oh well. Not a lot of interest in this race except for perhaps a few pick three tickets with the races before and after.

Good luck tomorrow.

Bill Lyster · 08-07-2009, 10:41 PM

10 F Turf

Converting the time of the 7 - Gloria from its finish time you get 133.6 from a $2,000 race that it won. The race notes say it got the lead 4F from home and just held. That just might be good enough, BUT

6 - Gio Ponti has run a mile in 133.7 and won; has won 3 grade 1's in a row.

The 2, 3 and 5 all convert to 134.7 or there abouts, the 2 was on a 20 length lead, the five closed 5-6-2 (lost position but not lengths - I dont like it) and the 3 closed 9-5-2.

I think the 2 does what he does, goes to the longest lead he can get and tries to hold on. He may be caught by the 7 and or 6 or even the 3. Match the 3 against the 2's 9f race from Monmouth and 3 wins

Einstein - I can't find where he ever did anything against fractions that might be posted here. Lots of guts so I put him in 3rd hole or 4th hole for super.

For me box 3-6-7 primary and play with 2 in the top end of the mix and the 1 in the bottom end.

Lets hope for biggggggg prices tomorrow

Good luck

mikesal57 · 08-08-2009, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

10 F Turf

Converting the time of the 7 - Gloria from its finish time you get 133.6 from a $2,000 race that it won. The race notes say it got the lead 4F from home and just held. That just might be good enough, BUT

6 - Gio Ponti has run a mile in 133.7 and won; has won 3 grade 1's in a row.

The 2, 3 and 5 all convert to 134.7 or there abouts, the 2 was on a 20 length lead, the five closed 5-6-2 (lost position but not lengths - I dont like it) and the 3 closed 9-5-2.

I think the 2 does what he does, goes to the longest lead he can get and tries to hold on. He may be caught by the 7 and or 6 or even the 3. Match the 3 against the 2's 9f race from Monmouth and 3 wins

Einstein - I can't find where he ever did anything against fractions that might be posted here. Lots of guts so I put him in 3rd hole or 4th hole for super.

For me box 3-6-7 primary and play with 2 in the top end of the mix and the 1 in the bottom end.

Lets hope for biggggggg prices tomorrow

Good luck

betting w/p on the #3

gl

mike

mikesal57 · 08-08-2009, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57

betting w/p on the #3

gl

mike

there we go ..the favorite beats me again..but I collect $11.80

nice hit Bill on your ex..72 bucks

thxs for putting these up!!

mike

gandalf380 · 08-09-2009, 08:03 AM

nice exacta bill

08-07-2009, 10:03 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Marathons, Marathons and more Marathons Saturday at Arlington Race 7 Secretariat 10 furlongs, 3 YO Best Mile time is the 4 - Laureate Conductor and he will either lead or track lead; comes off 111.7-135.2 effort about a half length off the lead - 135.3; ran 2-2-1, but I think he can be closed on by others 5 - Oil Man - 135.9 or 135.8 in races with paces of 111.2-135.1 and 110.9-135.1; power moved 9-6-1 and 10-9-4, so I like its 135.9 effort because of the PM 1A Driving Snow - 136.2 on a pace of 110.8-136.2; moved 4-2-1; probably gets first move on the 4, but I think the 4 can beat him. 6 - Quite a Handful - 136.6 off a pace of 110.8-136.2 in a tandem with the 1A; moved 6-3-2. No. 8 - Reb - DQ'd in last; has run 136.7 and 136.2 on paces of 112.2-136.7 and 113.2-142.4; moved 5-3-1 and 11-8-2. In both moves he made up 5 or more lengths between the first and 2nd route calls; won one race and lost by 3/4 L. This horse seems to have best closing speed even on slow-paced races The 9 is a foreign horse owned by Americans. The comments from his last race at 12 F said beaten 2F out. If that means he was competitive to that point and you adjust his 12F time you get 136.4 (but you do not know lengths back) This is the mystery horse for me. The 10 runs 137.2 off a 113.8 6f time, so I think he cant win. Best is probably show. The 5 and 8 have shown some good power moves and look to me more sustained than the 4, so they are my win bets. The foreigner, the 9, could get a piece with the 10 getting 3rd. So I will box the top 2 and use them on top to the 4-9-10 for exotics. On to the Beverly D next post.

08-07-2009, 10:29 PM	#2
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Race 8 The Beverly D Three foreign horses make this race pretty tough to get warm and fuzzy. The 1 Alnadana has run a mile in 137 not bad by European standards but that was a year ago in Italy, so probably not the highest competition. Neither the 5 or the 8 have times that convert to competitive ones. Lately the 5 has run up to a mile; last year ran 12 and 10f races. the 8 Denomination is a Grade 1 winner this year at 10f so has to be respected. The locals: 3 - Points last raced at Woodbine in 133.3 with a 2.5 L comfort margin at the mile which was hardly compromised on the run in. Keep; 7 - Dynaforce has a 134.7 with the lead but in most of his races he fades after a mile, so he is out. 2 - Pure Clan and 4 - Black Mamba run about 135.4 and 135.3 respectively; both have good power moves - 7-4-1 and 4-3-1 with Black mamba running from 4th position making up 4.5 lengths while gaining a position. BM finished in 159.7. Pure Clan closed 1.6 and 0.8 lengths to finish in 200.5, so a slight nod goes to Black Mamba between these two. the 2-3-4 are kind of chalky, but if the 8 is the real deal it could help the pricing here. I think the odds on the 3 should rise, meaning that the 2 and 4 are likely to be even lower than the ML. Oh well. Not a lot of interest in this race except for perhaps a few pick three tickets with the races before and after. Good luck tomorrow.

08-09-2009, 08:03 AM	#6
gandalf380 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: central islip ny Posts: 1,091	nice exacta bill __________________ Check out my daily picks for Saratoga in the Saratoga Special http://www.thisishorseracing.com

08-07-2009, 10:41 PM	#3
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Race 9 The Million 10 F Turf Converting the time of the 7 - Gloria from its finish time you get 133.6 from a $2,000 race that it won. The race notes say it got the lead 4F from home and just held. That just might be good enough, BUT 6 - Gio Ponti has run a mile in 133.7 and won; has won 3 grade 1's in a row. The 2, 3 and 5 all convert to 134.7 or there abouts, the 2 was on a 20 length lead, the five closed 5-6-2 (lost position but not lengths - I dont like it) and the 3 closed 9-5-2. I think the 2 does what he does, goes to the longest lead he can get and tries to hold on. He may be caught by the 7 and or 6 or even the 3. Match the 3 against the 2's 9f race from Monmouth and 3 wins Einstein - I can't find where he ever did anything against fractions that might be posted here. Lots of guts so I put him in 3rd hole or 4th hole for super. For me box 3-6-7 primary and play with 2 in the top end of the mix and the 1 in the bottom end. Lets hope for biggggggg prices tomorrow Good luck