Breeders Cup Marathons 11/4-9th; 11/5 3rd & 8th

[Bill Lyster]

11/4 9th, 11 F The 11 and 12 look to run early, with the 1 pressing

1 has pressed 221 and 222 and best mile time is 135.8. Looks to get first run

The next level of pressers I think are going to be the 5 and 6; they pressed the pace is Paris last out and finished within a neck of each other.

One of the strongest closers is the 8. I interpreted the chart from its last race where it closed 11-10-3 to a final time of 145.1 over 9 furlongs. My interpolation indicates a 34 second closing time from 3/4 to finish.

The 5 and 6 are 7/2 and 9/2, the 1 is 8/1 and the 8 is 30/1

Box the 4 in exacta and trifecta; win and place bets depending on odds; place and show on 8 for sure.


11/5, race 3 Mile and 3/4 MarathonThe Hats Marathon method says to calculate the adjusted mile time and keep note of positions at the mile call. A slight variation of that because of the distance of this race might be to assess running position and time at the mile and a quarter mark, since this is the last timed call in 12 furlong races.

1-Gr 2 horse 2-2-4, 137.9, also ran 1-1-1 in 137.1/202.9
2-Alw horse 2-2-1, 138.6, 204.7
3-Gr 2 horse, no position info; best 203.4
4-Stk 60, 4-3-1 and 3-3-4, best 137.0/202.8
5-Gr 1, 8-6-4, but slow 205.8
6-Gr 1 winner on hard Euro course that translates to 158.9, cant ignore @8/1
7-No
8-NW2X, 6-6-4, 137.5/203.3
9-Gr 2 placed, but best is 3-3-2 effort and 204.8
10-Gr 3 who runs 5-5-3 and 5-5-2, with best 136.1/201.7

Early pace by the 1 and 2, with 1 prevailing; pressing by 4 and 6, with 6 the better of the two;

My main three are 1-6-10 at 7/2-8/1-10/1

The 8 and 4 might be good enough for place/show consideration.

11/5-8th BC Turf at 12 F turf
Probably hardest race to gage with 5 european horses. The 1 and 2 have two tandems at 12 furlongs. My inclination is to lean to race 2 and take the 2 over the 1

The 6-7-9 from Europe and the 7 seems a reach; the 6 has not faltered over a distance, the 9 was 2nd last year this race and won it the year before but there are only two races with times that you can back calc to a mile.

The best local horse looks like the 5 who has run 4-4-5 and 3-3-2, with a mile best of 136.1. Midday, the 9, did 136.2 two Breeders Cups ago.

Without a lot of confidence I like in no particular order 2-5-9 and will probably just watch this one.

Hope you all do well,

Bill