AQI 5th -- March 7 - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 03-07-2009, 11:53 AM

Full Field. Looks like a self-slaughtering front end. I'll toss these guys:
1-6-9-10-11

That still leaves seven contenders.

I'll chuck the 8 as he looks hopeless.

That leaves six contenders: 1a-2-3-4-5-7

Presto! Half the work is done. Field of 12 down to 6 in less time than it took to type this.

alydar_ David · 03-07-2009, 12:55 PM

Came down to #4 True Rebel at 4-1. In addition to having the best Late Pace he's also got a nice TRB pattern -- third race back. Ideally, I'd like another week of rest for him, but it's close enough, all things considered.

#3 Spring Manners is my second choice at 9/2. Incidentally, Lake is 56.5% In-The-Money with Maragh.

alydar_ David · 03-07-2009, 01:37 PM

Ut oh. Looks like there may be a track bias. The best EP horse has won the first three races. If that holds for the fourth (#2 Crimsons Gold is the best EP horse), then it may be time to...I don't know. But certainly #6 Make The Point and #10 Confirmondi then become the horses to beat. *sigh* Nothing is easy, is it?

alydar_ David · 03-07-2009, 02:22 PM

That 50-1 shot winning the fourth doesn't really mean anything in terms of bias. And the best horse in the race ran second.

So, I'm not sure which way to go with the win bets. I'll skip them and play an exacta baseball: 10/ 3-4-6-1 and key the 10 for win and place in trifectas.

Charlie D · 03-07-2009, 02:25 PM

FWIW David

I got 5th down to 3, 4, 10

If #10 sits just behind Pace i think it wins, but it could get sucked in and that would leave race to 3 or 4

Pass for me, all the best

alydar_ David · 03-07-2009, 02:31 PM

Keyed the wrong early horse :>(

AQI
Race: 5 Win Place Show
1st 6 Make the Point 7.40 4.20 3.90
2nd 4 True Rebel 5.60 3.90
3rd 3 Spring Manners 3.70
4th 11 Minister's Appeal
$2 D/Double 5/6 566.00
$2 Exacta 6-4 35.80
$2 Trifecta 6-4-3 114.50
Refunds: None

03-07-2009, 02:25 PM	#5
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	FWIW David I got 5th down to 3, 4, 10 If #10 sits just behind Pace i think it wins, but it could get sucked in and that would leave race to 3 or 4 Pass for me, all the best __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Thursday -- March 5, 2009	alydar_ David	Selections	36	03-05-2009 04:22 PM
AQI 2nd -- March 5	alydar_ David	Matchup Discussion	22	03-05-2009 02:36 PM
Wednesday -- March 4, 2009	alydar_ David	Selections	31	03-04-2009 05:08 PM
AQI 1st -- March 4	alydar_ David	Matchup Discussion	6	03-04-2009 01:18 PM
Sunday -- March 1, 2009	alydar_ David	Selections	93	03-01-2009 05:22 PM

03-07-2009, 11:53 AM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	AQI 5th -- March 7 Full Field. Looks like a self-slaughtering front end. I'll toss these guys: 1-6-9-10-11 That still leaves seven contenders. I'll chuck the 8 as he looks hopeless. That leaves six contenders: 1a-2-3-4-5-7 Presto! Half the work is done. Field of 12 down to 6 in less time than it took to type this.

03-07-2009, 12:55 PM	#2
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Came down to #4 True Rebel at 4-1. In addition to having the best Late Pace he's also got a nice TRB pattern -- third race back. Ideally, I'd like another week of rest for him, but it's close enough, all things considered. #3 Spring Manners is my second choice at 9/2. Incidentally, Lake is 56.5% In-The-Money with Maragh.

03-07-2009, 01:37 PM	#3
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Ut oh. Looks like there may be a track bias. The best EP horse has won the first three races. If that holds for the fourth (#2 Crimsons Gold is the best EP horse), then it may be time to...I don't know. But certainly #6 Make The Point and #10 Confirmondi then become the horses to beat. sigh Nothing is easy, is it?

03-07-2009, 02:22 PM	#4
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	That 50-1 shot winning the fourth doesn't really mean anything in terms of bias. And the best horse in the race ran second. So, I'm not sure which way to go with the win bets. I'll skip them and play an exacta baseball: 10/ 3-4-6-1 and key the 10 for win and place in trifectas.

03-07-2009, 02:31 PM	#6
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Keyed the wrong early horse :>( AQI Race: 5 Win Place Show 1st 6 Make the Point 7.40 4.20 3.90 2nd 4 True Rebel 5.60 3.90 3rd 3 Spring Manners 3.70 4th 11 Minister's Appeal $2 D/Double 5/6 566.00 $2 Exacta 6-4 35.80 $2 Trifecta 6-4-3 114.50 Refunds: None