Way early Derby musings - marathon method

[Bill Lyster]

Heading out on a limb here, but what the heck...

The Derby this year is once again loaded with early speed types, but it appears that there are not that many qualified SP or S types to upset the apple cart.

The top two mile times come from California Chrome who recorded those times, once on the lead and another time early pressing, but be aware that earlier races show wins from 4th position, so he might be content to let others lead and pounce when needed.

FYI I considered only horses that were in the top 25 points earners so far, with a couple of exceptions.

Of interest here is that Chitu a fairly committed EP type has the 3rd and 7th best mile times, but current thinking is this one is going in the Derby Trial this weekend. Should be interesting what running style is used in that race. I would probably like him if he shows he can press from a couple off or more.

Also, prior to yesterday 4 of the top 15 miles had been run by Midnight Hawk - #3-9-12-15, but they say he will not run in the Derby.

The early contingent looks to include Ca Chrome, Chitu (?), Wildcat Red and General a Rod as the serious early horses. Others like Social Inclusion and Uncle Sigh could enter this duel to add to the clutter up front.

There do not appear to be any true fighters on the lead at a pace that will hold up for 10 furlongs.

So far with the contenders I am looking at there have only been 14 horses who ran in races with a six furlong time of 112.00 or better and only 11 running lines from only 9 horses that have either gone wire to wire or which gained both positions and lengths against 112.00 six furlong time.

The nine are California Chrome (2x), Wildcat Red, Chitu (2x), General a Rod, Candy Boy, Social Inclusion, Hoppertunity, Samraat and Wicked Strong.

Candy Boy, Hoppertunity, Samraat have all gained from either 4th or 5th and Wicked Strong closed from the farthest out, in sixth, to win the Wood

7 of the top 9 mile times (excluding Midnight Hawk) come from horses expected to run E or EP, the other two top mile times, #4 and #8, come from the SP Candy Boy and Hoppertunity (Samraat rates 15th best mile time).

Looking down the list of mile times there is a noticable gap after #8. The 8th best mile time is 135.77 and the 9th best is 136.41 (or more than 3+ lengths) which means that all the closers must overcome that and have enough in reserve to pass whatever is still in front of them at the top of the stretch.

My preliminary opinion is that Chrome can cruise at a high rate, fend off the rest of the E and EP pretenders and then worry about the two SP's and the lone S - Wicked Strong.

But we can take a closer look after all the entries are known. There is still a lot of flux in the field, so I will wait so as not to get myself fluxed up too much, too soon.

Regards,