Memorial Day Grade 1 Metropolitan Hdcp at Belmont

[RichieP]

Here is Monday's Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap going 8f on Belmont's dirt course. Post time looks like 5:45 PM Eastern.

** Hat Helper - 8f dirt races run at Belmont, Aqueduct (Main Track NOT inner), Churchill, Gulfstream are ALL 1 turn races from the chute. **

Very best of luck/skill to all and good matching!

[RichieP]

cont

[RichieP]

..

[RichieP]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0cpKzDoOdA

[PeteC]

In this race, the 10 is early, but can also win from 2nd. The 2,3 and 8 are E/P types. Looking at the pace the 10 can handle at this distance, I don’t feel it can hold on today. I will match the E/P and OTE runners to look for the winner.

I focused in the on the FPLR tandem won by the 5 against 44.7 108.5!. The 5 has won from 2nd, 3rd and 4th position. The 8 should be ahead of the 5 early and the pace may be slower today enabling him to reverse the tandem. Two-back he pressed from 2nd at the 1C, then fought all the way to the finish against 45.3 109.8.

My other contenders were the 1,2,4 and 11, but I will stick with the 5 and 8 out of the FPLR as my win selections.

Hope everyone enjoys the holiday!

[raceman5]

I am with u 100% on this race Pete. hope we get some decent odds

Bob

[Bill Lyster]

1 - P, SLOW
2 - EP, SLOWER
3 - E, NEEDS OPEN LENGTHS, USE LINE 1
4 - SP, PROJECTS TO MID 134 RANGE OFF CD 7F
5 - P AND FPLR OFF LAST RACE
6 - P, SLOW ROUTES AND LOST GROUND IN LAST TANDEM WITH 4
7 - S, TANDEM WITH 4 BUT FROM FAR BACK

8 - EP, AND COMPETITIVE OFF LINE 2
9 - P, CAN CLOSE OFF FAST SA MILE 2 TURN MILE TIME
10 - E, CAN WIN FROM OFF PACE, BUT USUALLY NEEDS LEAD
11 - P, SLOW

Pace of race: used last line from 3, Rodman
24-47.1-110.3-134.3.

Rodman needs open lead and looks to be able to get it from Tackleberry. The 2-3-8 and 10 could push for lead; 2 is first to drop out, with the other 3 looking pretty solid. Winner should come from 4th or so;

3 - 24.0 - 47.1 - 110.3; sets pace and fades from internal pressure
5 - 22.1 - 44.3 - 108.4; BL = 1.5/0.5/lead by 1 in str. - has won from 4th
8 - 22.3 - 45.1 - 109.3; BL = 1.0/hd/hd - probably takes lead at top of str.
9 - 22.1 - 45.0 - 109.0; BL = 2.50/1.50/0.50 - has won from 3rd, but several lengths off; closed against fast 2 turn mile

Fastest race might be 2nd back from Kensei since 2 turners are 6-8 fifths slower than one turn miles.

I like the 5 and 9 to win; there should be a lot of late movement from first the 4 and then the 7. I would box 4-5-9 in exacta.

good luck,

[Capcondo]

The 5-8 tandem I think is the key here. I don't think the 10 will get the kind of fractions he's been getting recently. The last line for the 5 is so much better than anything he has run. I look for verification in a line.

My choice is the 8.

Tim