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Old 12-01-2018, 07:21 PM   #1
Mitch44
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Monkey strikes the board.

After spending a few days in the Hosp' for a procedure I warmed up the Monkey today. He didn't know how to act with a couple days off. Off to a slow start but sticking to game plan he finally connected in the 8th at GP today for a $ 246.40 EX. X 3

Taking it easy and playing only 1 track I thought the Clm. Crown races would present some big prices.

The challenge of the 8th race was it had 6 horses stretching out to a route: 1,2,3,11,12 & 14. Thanks to the tools within RDSS I narrowed these down to the 2 & the 14. I primarily used % Med to evaluate these horses along with their % M running styles and settled on the 2 & 14. I thought the 3 was a NTL. He led till late stretch and when passed spit the bit or had it by that time.

I also threw the 10 in my play because he was proven at routes and his last was on dirt which he won, which begs the ? of where the top on this horse. He has won 3 of 6 on dirt , a improving 3 yr. old. The 4 was high in Profit & Prime. The 6 had a new trainer whose stats were less than previous trainer and poor with new horses.



COMPLETED: e324a-842ac GP
#8
$6 Exacta2, 10, WT, 4, 14none $24.00 $739.20
+ $715.20
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 80c8d-56e9a GP
#8
$4 Exacta8, 12, WT, 4, 14none $16.00 $0.00
- $16.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 2a9b8-b1c87 GP
#8
$1 Exacta4, WT, 2, 8, 10, 12none $4.00 $0.00
- $4.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 9bbb8-80676 GP
#8
$3 Exacta14, WT, 2, 8, 10, 12none $12.00 $0.00
- $12.00


Mitch44
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Old 12-01-2018, 08:11 PM   #2
RichieP
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Mitch that is awesome man! Tremendous score, your Monkey should be Bronzed along with you!!

Hey I hope all went well with your procedure, Karen and I send our prayers and best vibes to you

Stay coo
Richie
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Old 12-01-2018, 08:49 PM   #3
Lt1
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Boy oh boy that monkey sure knows how to make big bucks. Nice job big guy. Glad to hear that all went well with your procedure.
Tim
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Old 12-01-2018, 09:50 PM   #4
Bill V.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
After spending a few days in the Hosp' for a procedure I warmed up the Monkey today. He didn't know how to act with a couple days off. Off to a slow start but sticking to game plan he finally connected in the 8th at GP today for a $ 246.40 EX. X 3

Taking it easy and playing only 1 track I thought the Clm. Crown races would present some big prices.

The challenge of the 8th race was it had 6 horses stretching out to a route: 1,2,3,11,12 & 14. Thanks to the tools within RDSS I narrowed these down to the 2 & the 14. I primarily used % Med to evaluate these horses along with their % M running styles and settled on the 2 & 14. I thought the 3 was a NTL. He led till late stretch and when passed spit the bit or had it by that time.

I also threw the 10 in my play because he was proven at routes and his last was on dirt which he won, which begs the ? of where the top on this horse. He has won 3 of 6 on dirt , a improving 3 yr. old. The 4 was high in Profit & Prime. The 6 had a new trainer whose stats were less than previous trainer and poor with new horses.



COMPLETED: e324a-842ac GP
#8
$6 Exacta2, 10, WT, 4, 14none $24.00 $739.20
+ $715.20
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 80c8d-56e9a GP
#8
$4 Exacta8, 12, WT, 4, 14none $16.00 $0.00
- $16.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 2a9b8-b1c87 GP
#8
$1 Exacta4, WT, 2, 8, 10, 12none $4.00 $0.00
- $4.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 9bbb8-80676 GP
#8
$3 Exacta14, WT, 2, 8, 10, 12none $12.00 $0.00
- $12.00


Mitch44
Beautiful hit Mitch
You and the monkey are awsome
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Old 12-01-2018, 11:33 PM   #5
Mitch44
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Thanks ever so much Richie, Tim and Bill. Looking forward to one day meeting up with Richie & Bill, perhaps the next Sar. meeting.

My procedure went well Richie but not out of the woods yet as there are a couple more issues to be dealt with. Thanks for your prayers Richie & Karen and best vibes. Ditto and right back at you.


If you looked at my betting I also played the 8 & 12 with the 4 & 14 as I thought they had a shot but I made a bigger bet with the 2 & 10. The 8 switched to dirt in last two and won both. Again the ? is where is the top on this horse and how good is he, plus his M/L was 20 to 1.


I really thought this race set up for an upset and off the pace horses to win with the 3 leading them to run too fast for the distance. Of the sprinters stretching out the 2 & 14 were the two best counter energy horses.


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Old 12-02-2018, 10:21 AM   #6
rmath
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Congratulations

Way to go Mitch.
A very nice score.
I hope your health continues to improve.
Rmath
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Old 12-02-2018, 01:40 PM   #7
Mitch44
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% Med. arrived in 1988 and was first introduced in Synergism II, a program I had around 1990. It replaced the old % Early and used all 3 Fractions rather than just SC and 3rd FR., making it much more accurate.


The formula for it is (F1 + F2) / (F1+ F2+F3).Its within RDSS and automatically computed by the Feet Per Second fractions. It is not a stand alone Factor but more a supplementary tool that can eliminate contenders. I.e. in the race above 6 horses were stretching out and automatically it eliminates the # 1 & 3 as being too early, of the six stretch outs the 2 & 14 were best on HE and Late with the # 14 & 2 the 1 & 2 counter energy horses. Also the 2 & 14 put together two good FR's (2 & 3rd )which is confirmed on the Vel-POH screen.


In the case of the winner above (#2) he was in the money 9 of 10 races and won 3 of them. The public assumes he is a sprinter but an examination of his % M and his % M ESP dictates he can stretch out. Note: the % Med and the visual ESP are completely different, the visual is for the match up and the % M ESP for all other uses. The parameters for the % Med ESP are much more accurate than the visual ESP. A horse can go wire to wire and not be an E type horse. The public is fooled by this frequently to include many RDSS users.

Those that keep a % Med Track Profile will be able to determine if a shipper can adapt to today's track , adapt to Turf or stretch out. I play too many different tracks for these profiles but if I only played 1 track I would keep one. I understand concept so I'm able to employ it without a profile.


Stretch out are a common handicapping problem that a player must deal with. Anytime you can eliminate even 1 contender or horse you are closer to your goal of winning. The public can not deal with stretch outs and they generally pay much more than your everyday winner. Even if you missed this big EX. the winner # 2 payed $ 30.20 to win. I also wrote about the value of % Med in a previous thread.Get this tool in your toolbox!


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Old 12-09-2018, 10:59 AM   #8
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The real test for the monkey will be when you sit him down with a keyboard, and he types out the complete works of Shakespeare. (sorry inside "probability" joke)
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