Match with "The Hat" at Saratoga - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

mufasa · 08-01-2007, 11:08 AM

Last MU race with “The Hat”

Saratoga race #6:

Rich I agree as usual with your on the money assessment of early/late and the projected pace of about 46 and 1.10. I do have a bit of a different twist on the OTE although.

There are two solid early types in this race which are the #3 horse and the #4 horse. One of the other early runners is the #12 horse and he is too slow. The other early runner type runner #8 I have pegged as an early presser type and he is to slow today.

I am looking for an OTE to beat out the #4 horse who is the early reliable based on its 2nd race back on the grass. The #3 horse is a bit of a mystery since he has not shown that good speed of 1.10 projected for today since 8 races back. He has had many opportunities both on the grass and on the dirt but seems to have become a slower horse. I need to make a stand here and say that the #3 horse has become slow as displayed in recent racing or else my slow/fast horse evaluation of the Saratoga race 4 is meaningless. Having said that this race will have a lone early of the #4 horse and now I need to beat him if possible.

Rich I do agree with 1 to 2 of your contenders but I have taken the position that this race will in fact run early and all other OTE’s are out. Additionally none of the OTE’s have really shown me that they can over come the projected 46 and 1.10 pace of the race. I have decided after going over the contenders especially as to the #3 horse who I have taken a position against as now being too slow to really affect the other early type #4. I expect the #4 horse to break well as demonstrated in 3 of his last 4 races and to move on comfortably to win the race. If I am all wet as to the #3 horse then so be it and your #5 horse wins the race. I agree with you that the fastest of the slow OTE’s is the #5 horse as demonstrated to me in his 4th race back (ugh-not a hell of a good power line IMO). I can play it safe and bet to win the #5 horse and the #4 horse but this is MU play. I have to stick to what I think I know and let you or “The Hat” set me straight. I can not allow myself to say that in one race a horse is out because it is too slow and then in another disregard the perceived slowness and continue to use it in other selection assumptions.

Thank you for this opportunity even though I would have wished that it was not done in front of a mostly undeserving internet world.

Robert

THE HAT · 08-03-2007, 10:00 AM

Saratoga Race One

Guys you did a great job in matching this race, determining that the race would run Other Than Early is the key in winning the race. Next find the fastest Other Than Early horse, never rely on one running line to find this horse.

The Three, Five Six and Nine are horse that show an early running style, these horses are "tossed out." The Two, Four and Seven are slow and are "tossed" This leaves the One and the Eight as the main contenders in the race.

Match the One and Eight line by line and decide the one to bet. Did you miss the Tandem they ran? Which one was ahead of the other most of the time? Is there any reason the Tandem will reverse? The answer is no.

Cool the Economy is faster than Tzipi and is the bet in this race.

Turbulator · 08-03-2007, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by THE HAT

Saratoga Race One

Match the One and Eight line by line and decide the one to bet. Did you miss the Tandem they ran? Which one was ahead of the other most of the time? Is there any reason the Tandem will reverse? The answer is no.

Cool the Economy is faster than Tzipi and is the bet in this race.

Jim,

Watching you handicap is like watching a pool player running racks. It looks soooo easy.

The five stages of the "Hat"

1. Visor
2. Cap
3. Sombrero
4. Fedora
5. "Hat"

THE HAT · 08-08-2007, 03:14 PM

Saratoga Race Two & Four

Race Two only has the 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 and 9 horses to match the others are first time starters . Each of the horses only have one line to match and 22.0 is the fastest first call. The race should run "other than early" and the four and Nine are the best. The four horse has faced the fastest second call and almost go the lead. I believe J Z Warrior is a standout and should win, if he isn’t beaten by one of the first time starters. I played him with the One horse in the first race for a Daily Double.

The Fourth race a One Mile and One Sixteenth on the turf. was an interesting race, the Seven, Ten and all the horses entered for the main track were scratched. The Two horse is the only horse with any early speed and can also run "other than early." The Three horse was out run by Will’s Sweet Girl, so is out. The Four horse was outrun by the Six and is out. The Five shows nothing and is out. The Six is slow and is out. The One horse is slow and is out. The Eight is a slow horse and is out. The Nine horse could take the lead, but is slow and should be caught. The process of The Match Up gives me the Two and Eleven. I placed by wager on the Two, but was a late scratch. I usually don’t do ood if I go back and look at the race, so I placed a wager on Will’s Sweet Girl and won the race.

VoodooFan · 08-20-2007, 09:06 PM

Thanks for the analysis on the saratoga race's , Mr. Bradshaw. Trying to study these examples very hard. Never tire of the MatchUP. Pino and Richie are there, I'm working at it. VoodooFan

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08-01-2007, 11:08 AM	#1
mufasa Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 310	Last MU race with “The Hat” Saratoga race #6: Rich I agree as usual with your on the money assessment of early/late and the projected pace of about 46 and 1.10. I do have a bit of a different twist on the OTE although. There are two solid early types in this race which are the #3 horse and the #4 horse. One of the other early runners is the #12 horse and he is too slow. The other early runner type runner #8 I have pegged as an early presser type and he is to slow today. I am looking for an OTE to beat out the #4 horse who is the early reliable based on its 2nd race back on the grass. The #3 horse is a bit of a mystery since he has not shown that good speed of 1.10 projected for today since 8 races back. He has had many opportunities both on the grass and on the dirt but seems to have become a slower horse. I need to make a stand here and say that the #3 horse has become slow as displayed in recent racing or else my slow/fast horse evaluation of the Saratoga race 4 is meaningless. Having said that this race will have a lone early of the #4 horse and now I need to beat him if possible. Rich I do agree with 1 to 2 of your contenders but I have taken the position that this race will in fact run early and all other OTE’s are out. Additionally none of the OTE’s have really shown me that they can over come the projected 46 and 1.10 pace of the race. I have decided after going over the contenders especially as to the #3 horse who I have taken a position against as now being too slow to really affect the other early type #4. I expect the #4 horse to break well as demonstrated in 3 of his last 4 races and to move on comfortably to win the race. If I am all wet as to the #3 horse then so be it and your #5 horse wins the race. I agree with you that the fastest of the slow OTE’s is the #5 horse as demonstrated to me in his 4th race back (ugh-not a hell of a good power line IMO). I can play it safe and bet to win the #5 horse and the #4 horse but this is MU play. I have to stick to what I think I know and let you or “The Hat” set me straight. I can not allow myself to say that in one race a horse is out because it is too slow and then in another disregard the perceived slowness and continue to use it in other selection assumptions. Thank you for this opportunity even though I would have wished that it was not done in front of a mostly undeserving internet world. Robert

08-03-2007, 10:00 AM	#2
THE HAT Grade 2 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86	Saratoga Race One Guys you did a great job in matching this race, determining that the race would run Other Than Early is the key in winning the race. Next find the fastest Other Than Early horse, never rely on one running line to find this horse. The Three, Five Six and Nine are horse that show an early running style, these horses are "tossed out." The Two, Four and Seven are slow and are "tossed" This leaves the One and the Eight as the main contenders in the race. Match the One and Eight line by line and decide the one to bet. Did you miss the Tandem they ran? Which one was ahead of the other most of the time? Is there any reason the Tandem will reverse? The answer is no. Cool the Economy is faster than Tzipi and is the bet in this race.

08-08-2007, 03:14 PM	#4
THE HAT Grade 2 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86	Saratoga Race Two & Four Race Two only has the 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 and 9 horses to match the others are first time starters . Each of the horses only have one line to match and 22.0 is the fastest first call. The race should run "other than early" and the four and Nine are the best. The four horse has faced the fastest second call and almost go the lead. I believe J Z Warrior is a standout and should win, if he isn’t beaten by one of the first time starters. I played him with the One horse in the first race for a Daily Double. The Fourth race a One Mile and One Sixteenth on the turf. was an interesting race, the Seven, Ten and all the horses entered for the main track were scratched. The Two horse is the only horse with any early speed and can also run "other than early." The Three horse was out run by Will’s Sweet Girl, so is out. The Four horse was outrun by the Six and is out. The Five shows nothing and is out. The Six is slow and is out. The One horse is slow and is out. The Eight is a slow horse and is out. The Nine horse could take the lead, but is slow and should be caught. The process of The Match Up gives me the Two and Eleven. I placed by wager on the Two, but was a late scratch. I usually don’t do ood if I go back and look at the race, so I placed a wager on Will’s Sweet Girl and won the race.