|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
10-04-2011, 05:51 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
|
Thursday 10/6 Belmont Turf - TM 104 Race Class
Here is the 7th from Belmont on Thursday, a wide open turf affair. Hopefully the weather cooperates and the race stays on the lawn (if someone could update raceday with conditions and scratches it would be MOST appreciated as I will be out in the field working )
Very best of luck/skill to ALL who jump in and match em up!
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
10-04-2011, 05:53 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
|
,.,
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
10-04-2011, 05:55 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
|
..
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
10-05-2011, 11:44 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
Not a lot of pace here and the horses most likely to lead are listed as MTO, the 11-13.
The 1 and 8 could be pace factors but are slow horses. Lots of failure at this level here, so I am left with the tandem of the 2 and 10 along with the 5 and 9. The race record of the 5 is suspect to me. first two races then a big layoff, two races, one at 44 days, the next at 42 days and now a 67 day delay. This horse has run 442, 762 and 453 and its last race was against the best pace of these runners. Has only beat NW of 1 lifetime and that could be anything. The 2 and 10 were in grade 2 with the 2 beating the 10 decisively. The 9 won its second start and did well in its first NW1X and looks to run positionally just behind the 9. 2 and 9 to win (before scratches) with the 5 in an exacta 2nd spot. Good luck |
10-06-2011, 12:06 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
Scratch 11-12-13
Just the three MTO's 11-13 have been scratched.
|
10-06-2011, 12:27 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
|
Thanks for the scratch update Bill...Unfortunately for me I see the #2 as the best of the e/p group and the 5 as the best of the ote gorup, the top 2 ML favorites...You'll should get a price though if the 9 comes in for you.
We'll see how it turns out... |
10-06-2011, 12:39 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
|
6-9 for me
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
10-06-2011, 01:40 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
|
You picked a humdinger of a race, Richie. Nice. :>) I'll take #5 Hyper to win and place. And I'll key him with 4,6,1 and 2. Incidentally, I know what you mean about the layoffs in #5's past performances, Bill. He's what we call a "campaign horse." I generally don't like to bet those horses, however I'll overlook it this time as Chad Brown is 75% adding bandages with an ROI of $7.15. I'm assuming I'll get 3-1 which is okay for this. Last edited by alydar_ David; 10-06-2011 at 01:55 PM. Reason: Had the scratches for the wrong race. |
10-06-2011, 03:20 PM | #9 |
Former member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,136
|
Tough Race. Certainly not one that I'd typically play, as there doesn't appear to be either a stickout or value.
I don't like #5 --- ESPECIALLY in the win slot -- this horse got a once-a-career good trip last out. He could be 2nd or 3rd but he's not winning. The logical horse is #2, Humble and Hungry. He could win but he won't be value. The ones I like are: #10, Benergy: ran by a bunch of horses breaking its maiden; then ran 2nd to Banned next out. This horse has to be able to put in a representative run here. I'll bet this one to win but I need more (closer to 10:1, ideally) than the morning line. #1A, Bakhoor: The SPEED. JUICER trainer doesn't hurt either. Might steal this. |
10-06-2011, 04:08 PM | #10 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Lines
Please help with any comments about my line selection
Been working on it lets see if I show any improvement Pacelines Race is for Alw Non winners 1 other than Maiden, Claiming Starter or Restricted or NW 2 races life 1. 7th try at this condition Jockey feel off last race W/o 7 days ago line 2 fast POR Ill use it speed 83 1A. only has its maiden win last line seems best of last three 42 days with a w/o line 1 speed 72 2. ML fav Last line Speed 78 3. Last line was a yielding track with very slow pace Line 2 was 10 furlongs and slow pace Line 3 was ok but slow pace and speed 69 no line Low apv layoff 4. Ill use the last line for this 4 time winner finally won on the lead last line but will have to run faster early against the 1A 2 and 3 last line based on running style when in form 5. Last line Speed rating 84 2 wins in 5 races 89 apv 3.42 class 6. Last race yielding 10 F out 2nd good 9.out Line 3 for this 4 time winner speed 81 Pace fits the earlies APV 103 7. Show 3 wins but 8 fails against ALNW1x in 10 races shown last race is 72 Speed slow pace NL 8. last line 1 for 17 39 APV 76 speed rating pace fits 9. Both last and line 2 are good 101 APV speed and pace ? line 2 fits better 1 for 3 lifetime but this is for NW1X so MS win is ok correct Line 2 10. Been running against graded stakes horses last 3 Grade 2 last two Line 3 fits against these. Line 2 was 10 furlongs 1/7 life 153 APV Contenders 1 5 6 2 9 from these I will chop the 1 final 4 shows 2 5 9 win bets 5 and 9 Thanks Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 10-06-2011 at 04:10 PM. |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Friday 9/23 - Belmont Turf Route- TM108 Race Class | RichieP | Matchup Discussion | 8 | 09-23-2011 05:10 PM |
Saturday Mth Turf Route - 100TM Race Class | RichieP | Matchup Discussion | 14 | 09-18-2011 01:35 PM |
Saratoga 7th | pktruckdriver | Selections | 10 | 08-17-2011 06:29 AM |
Saratoga 2010 - Workbook for the Seminar | Ted Craven | 2010 | 9 | 08-28-2010 04:13 PM |
Jim Bradshaw's 5 Step Approach to learning the Matchup | RichieP | Hat Check - How Can We Help You? | 1 | 05-25-2009 09:52 AM |