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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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01-09-2018, 09:59 AM | #11 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Quote:
To Mitch and Tim's point, Pizzolla's aim is finding boxcar payouts. It is a high variance strategy susceptible to a lot of bad runs, so someone who is either 1) undercapitalized and/or 2) lacks the constitution to withstand a "cold deck" is going to have a difficult time "waiting out" the payouts. Re: BLAM (Black Magic) and his new update (Valuecapper) - They have their own legion of followers who claim to do well. However, the overhead (nearly $2000 for program and tapes and other assortments, plus over $100 a month for unlimited data) is steep. Someone I know has BLAM and has complained that it does them no good as far as multi-race betting is concerned, because Pizzolla's main aim is attacking each race individually. To each their own I guess. |
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01-10-2018, 10:13 AM | #12 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 644
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Quote:
They alluded to this in PMTR hard cover in the article about using the fulcrum to make an excuse. Good thread! |
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01-10-2018, 01:55 PM | #13 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hi Tom
Excellent post, When I visited Doc, we worked a few races in his office.
I was still pretty new to the methodology.He had me select my pacelines. As I did he looked over my shoulder, Doc entered my lines into his computer. I remember one race, The horses last three races all did not show much, I was unsure of which line to uses so I used the F6 (perceptor) paceline indicator It selected line 1. So that is the line I used. Doc only made a few comments while we worked races. He told me that although the line was selected, Doc told me that the line probably was overly adjusted, He said look at the second call, It was like a 43.4. Doc told me there was no way the pace would be that fast in today's race. He had me start over and pay attention to each horse + races and see what the second call pace of race was in those races. I scanned the PP's and told Doc the pace of the + races for each horse was more like 44.5-45. I also am glad you mentioned the fulcrum. In the hard bound original PMTR the example horse earned a 93 EPR . It was not aberrant. The horse that earned the 93 EPR was the only horse in the race who had shown it could run a + race that fast. That is what the fulcrum in PMTR is used for. Which horses can or can't compete against the fulcrum pace of race. Blessings Bill |
01-29-2018, 02:39 PM | #14 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 25
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I have no problem going back as many as needed. Started back in the early days of Sartin and track horse patterns and how they arrive at a win (not trainer patterns) and have found many good prices doing this. The one thing I can say for certain there are no hard and fast rules on how you handicap. After over 35 years of pace handicapping I rely on experience and gut feeling. The computer only crunches the numbers, you make the decisions on what the computer spits out.
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01-29-2018, 03:33 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,158
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Excellent point Charlie
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
02-01-2018, 05:38 PM | #16 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 8
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2 Excuse method
When using the 2 excuse method I also use michaels Advanced form paterns also.this helps open up a horses form cycle window
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02-05-2018, 06:06 PM | #17 | |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 25
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Pizzola
Quote:
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02-05-2018, 06:11 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Very well said Charlie, that he could do. ha ha ha
Mitch44 |
02-05-2018, 07:08 PM | #19 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 8
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pbs
I also been using BM since it came out. I've been very happy with the program. Originally made pbs and ppf myself and they were great for me. I live in las Vegas and Michael is a personal friend of mine. Meeting him only helped my game.
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02-06-2018, 12:24 AM | #20 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 8
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pbs
I began using the PBS rating when it came out in the follow up. Over the years its been a very solid number for selecting winners.
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