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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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10-21-2017, 11:50 PM | #91 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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FTL,
I have been reading some of the old follow ups and in #26 they wrote about using Energy with KGEN.I was wondering if you ever tried it out. Jeff |
10-22-2017, 02:10 PM | #92 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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FTL
Don't know if putting this question the right way but when picking contenders how much emphasis do you put on class For an example today in the 3rd at Parx it was an 8000 open claimer race. The 4 horse had a impressive win by 3.75 lengths but it was for 5000n1y and was just claimed out of that race. Would you have included this horse in the contender mix? I don't have the PP'S to put up or would have I missed the winner by including this horse Jeff |
10-22-2017, 05:04 PM | #93 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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FTL
Sorry for all the questions When looking at a 7 furlong race how do you determine making a horse a contender with distance pace lines Jeff |
10-22-2017, 11:55 PM | #94 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Shoeless,
The short answer is YES. The information for a model was “built into” my database. Anytime I would want to look at a model for a particular track, dist, surface, sex and etc., all I had to do is ask the program to print it for me. It was always there just waiting for me to access it.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
10-22-2017, 11:56 PM | #95 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
YES, I have KGEN and when it came out I used it, but that was many years ago. Personally, I never found it added to my overall results, but that is just me, someone else my have different thoughts about it. Here’s my advice. Anytime you introduce something new into your handicapping, be prepared to use it for a long time. The only way to make a decision as to whether or not it is helping you is to use it and keep records for hundreds of races. Short term results are meaningless.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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10-23-2017, 12:02 AM | #96 | |
Grade 1
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Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
The short answer is A LOT, when necessary. I don’t have the PP’s for that race either, so I will answer your question based on the information you provided and “general” thoughts. If you have been following along, you know the first thing I do is throw out horses with very little chance of winning, such as horses with a ML 20/1 and greater and horses off more than 90 days. Then I look for lines for the remaining horses based on the guidelines I have set forth many times. Those without a qualifying line are also thrown out. At this point, all horses that are left go into the “contender” column (so to speak). If you have noticed, most players have 5 contenders. I “might” have 5 and I “might not” have 5. There are as many as are left. (more on this later) Now, my observation is that most players consider any of their contenders to be possible winners of the race. I don’t! For that reason they are willing to bet any of them to win based on odds. I don’t! At this point all you have is some horses with lines. The next step is to enter your contenders into the program. Now you can begin to evaluate your contenders. You said the horse you are asking about was coming off an “impressive” win. How impressive was it? I don’t mean, how fast did it run? And I don’t mean, how many lengths did it win by? The important thing you mentioned was that it beat “NON WINNERS OF A RACE IN A YEAR” for a claiming price of $5,000. Think about that. Not one horse in that race had won a race in a year, including the winner. NOT ONE! I mean, how tough of a field was that? I’d say pretty darn weak. The other information you provided was that today the race is an OPEN race for a claiming price of $8,000. So exactly what is an OPEN race? Horses in an OPEN race could have won 5 races in the last year. They could have won 10 races in the last year. I’m sure you get the point. Do you REALLY THINK that horse that just beat NW1Y for $5,000 is going to come right back and beat OPEN horses for $8,000?? Regardless of what its’ rankings might be...I DON’T!! Like I said at the beginning, I don’t have the PP’s for the race and therefore I have no idea what the rest of the field looked like, so I just answered based on the information you provided and “general” thoughts. Ok, back to the number of contenders. Since Tom Brohamer is the father of modeling, I’m going to take his advice. He once wrote that in order to enter a race into your model, you should have at least 5 contenders. You can’t “force” contenders. You have what you have and that’s all that you have. So, suppose you only have 3 contenders and the best “sustained” horse wins. Later on when you look at that race in your model, it will chow the horse 3rd early and 1st sustained. Well, how far back was the horse? The model says 3rd, but maybe it was further back than that. Because you only have 3 contenders in the model it’s hard to tell. If there were 5 (or more) contenders and the horse was ranked 5th early and 1st for sustained, now you have a better picture of how the horse measured up to the rest of the field that day. So, Brohamer's advice was, if you only have 3 contenders, cash your tickets, don’t enter the race into you model and move on to the next race. Only add a race to your model if there was 5 or more contenders. His advice always made sense to me!
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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10-23-2017, 12:07 AM | #97 | |
Grade 1
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Quote:
I’m not exactly sure what your question is, so I’ll just “wing it”. A 7 furlong race can be a pain in the butt. A 7 furlong race is a sprint race. The standard has always been to use races within 1/8th of a mile of today’s race. However, that would make 1 mile races eligible, but 1 mile races are route races and I never use route races in a sprint. The opposite is also true. I never use sprints in a route. I don’t like this particular conversation because there is so much to say on either side of the discussion. I’ll make it as simple as possible and say again, I never use route races in a sprint! Turn time, what is it? It’s suppose to represent the time it takes for a horse to negotiate a turn. In all of racing there is ONLY ONE DISTANCE where time is actually measured on a turn. That distance is 5.5 furlongs. In all other distances there may be “part” of a turn involved, but mostly it is on a straight away. The 7 furlong distance is one such distance. You should get yourself a track layout from a standard one mile oval and look at the different starting points for the various distances so you can get a visual look at what I’m saying. Let me back up for a minute. At 5.5 furlongs the horses start on the backstretch and run approximately ¼ of a mile before encountering a turn. Then they run around the turn which is approximately ¼ of a mile, before entering the stretch where they will run the rest of the race. Back to 7 furlongs races. The horses start from a chute and run almost ½ a mile before entering a turn. That means the turn time in a 7 furlong race is basically run on a straight away. Want proof? Just enter lines from 5.5 furlong races and 6 furlong races. Then add in one line from a 7 furlong race. Keep in mind the lines you use should be from “+” or “(+)” races just like you normally would. Now, see which horse gets the best turn time. Also see which horse gets the worst turn time. Do this over and over again until you get an understanding of what is happening. There have been times when I have used 5.5 furlong lines in a 7 furlong race. There have also been times when I have used 7 furlong lines in a 5.5 furlong race. I don’t like it, but I have done it. Naturally, when I do that there is more evaluation involved. So, I don’t know if that answers your question or not, but I gave it a shot!
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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10-23-2017, 12:22 PM | #98 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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FTL
I’ll make it as simple as possible and say again, I never use route races in a sprint! This answered my question. Thanks very much for your answers and want you to know that you really have helped this old timer out immensely As far as programs go I have been going from one to the next for quite a while but thanks to you and Bill sticking with Energy Shoeless |
10-27-2017, 07:06 PM | #99 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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FTL
Today there was a horse running that was at the top of the Energy readouts but running at this distance had 13 starts 0 wins 4 2nds 2 3rds. Would this have affected your decision if to bet it or not Jeff |
10-27-2017, 08:19 PM | #100 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,153
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FTL
Hopes this makes sense I am having a problem of liking horses and then going back and finding excuses either not to bet them or bet very little. This happened to me recently with a 9-1 shot that Energy had and today with a 5-2 horse. I really am not sure if it's due to lack of confidence or not Any suggestions? Shoeless |
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