Projecting Times Refresher Course

[don p]

to tfm...what you stated about class horses.....the matchup does not allow for this....the only way something like that can happen is if ..and only if no other horse really wants the lead or has never won wire to wire....in this case a horse that has been running against fast early turn times may inherit the lead and be gone...

[RichieP]

Ok Jeff
You did great work.

Fwiw Pino emailed me early this morning asking me who I liked in the race because I hadn't picked one here in the thread.

I told him 4 hours before the race run in an email the winner is the Mooji horse #8. Check the pp's out.

Here is the result big bro.

[tfm]

Originally Posted by don p

to tfm...what you stated about class horses.....the matchup does not allow for this....the only way something like that can happen is if ..and only if no other horse really wants the lead or has never won wire to wire....in this case a horse that has been running against fast early turn times may inherit the lead and be gone...

Don

I have no idea what you're trying to convey here.

My only point is that they play alot of games at TAM, and it's hard enough to figure out when they're trying or giving a horse a race, in the attempt to get better odds (they almost NEVER try after a good performance and typically change distance) let alone handle allowance or AOC to claiming class drops.

Good job by all those picking the winner.

[gl45]

reasons why I bet this horse:
7 days rest.
Back class. Won at higher class
Finished in the money in 3 of last 4 races.
Today is entered at his lowest class.
Same jocks on board that won before.
Front running EP
Last race was a coditioning race. Easy race. Performed well in a fast race
Today is cutting back distance.

[shoeless]

Richie,I didnt get home in time to bet but I had also e mailed Pino earlier that I liked the 8 as well.When you have a chance can you tell me match up wise why you had the 8.The match up did lead me to the contenders but the reason I liked the 8 was his race 2 back and the fact that they were putting back on Centeno[the leading jock there] who had won with him 4 races back.Also his last race was run against a 21.3 44.2 and to the stretch he was 4.5 lengths off.


By the way I tip my hat to you for doing the race this way step by step and for using the pp's.After using nothing but the form for 30+ years it's hard to teach an old dog new tricks.Jeff

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Richie,I didnt get home in time to bet but I had also e mailed Pino earlier that I liked the 8 as well.When you have a chance can you tell me match up wise why you had the 8.The match up did lead me to the contenders but the reason I liked the 8 was his race 2 back and the fact that they were putting back on Centeno[the leading jock there] who had won with him 4 races back.Also his last race was run against a 21.3 44.2 and to the stretch he was 4.5 lengths off.

Good work Jeff! You did great.

This race was a good head big bro cause frankly they cause me fits as I have posted before. Those with NO established pace from an early horse.

To be honest I didn't post who I liked because confidence in THIS race type for ME is low ok? That's being real man. I'm glad Pino emailed me and I picked the right one so this isn't a total redboard

OK let me show you what I did Jeff. This is how Hat had me work races with him virtually from day 1. He wanted this same procedure done for ALL races regardless of
track
class
distance
surface

He would do this SAME procedure every time he would come back from the races and had races he wanted to show me when teaching me ok? He let me know early on THIS was how he wanted races worked.

Try it a few dozen times if you like.

1) He wanted a projected pace first EXACTLY how he laid out in the 5 step approach. Either from an early runner or fastest pace last race at this track distance. You did it PERFECTLY Jeff. Serious

2) He NEVER wanted me to project a race to the end Jeff.NEVER. He said doing this would put the user on way too many sustained horses that would NOT win.

Jim spent a LOT of time teaching me how to show OTHERS what he had taught me. He explained the importance of starting out with the very basics which is the 5 step approach. In that write up he DOES project to the finish ok?

I am telling you and any others who have moved beyond the very basics of matching who are reading this thread to NOT project a race to the final time or the "end". This is what Hat wants shown and conveyed to you. Match
1st fraction
1st call
2nd call
stretch call (especially when the stretch call on a pp line is todays distance. A "backup line" as Jim calls it. Ask if you are confused please)

I have to run because as I am typing this distractions have hit here.

I will post the "Hat taught" way of doing the race in the morning using Jeff's PERFECT call of the projected race pace. He also wants me to do another "live race" showing his first way of projecting pace according to his 5 step approach. This way both HIS methods are shown. Jeff he said to ask you to help me and find a race that YOU see ok?

After I will ask for some feedback (good and bad) because Jim is VERY interested in this thread and what comes of it ok? He asked me 2 times today about keeping him informed about it which is a GOOD thing. Keeps his mind off other crap man

ok

[RichieP]

We have our projected pace
22.4 - 45.6 - 58.1

Hat's method:

Start with the 1 horse - last race collapsed against this proj pace. 2 back collapsed against pace 2 seconds slower than today. OUT

Go to the 2 horse - shows 1 race against todays pace,line 3. Horror show. OUT

Go to the 3 horse - Our "pace horse" so we know he's sharp. Come down and use line 8 from Meadowlands as Power Line.Wins from 2nd posisiton. IN

Match the 3 against the 4 now. 4 shows 3 lines against todays pace,lines 3,6,7, Couldn't compete in any (line 7 was just CHASING speed). OUT

Match the 3 against the 5 - Lines 3,4,5 against todays pace. Horror show. OUT.

Match the 3 against the 6.Lines 2 and 3 show runs against this pace where he collapsed. OUT

Match the 3 against the 7 - Lines 2 and 4 against todays pace. Line 4 is ok but he ran from 3rd position and we already have the 3 running and winning from 2nd position. The 3 is ahead of the 7 POSITIONALLY. 7 is OUT

Match the 3 against the 8 - Line 3 against faster pace than todays projected. Runs 3-2-2 positionally. Line 6 runs against a 21.4 - 44.4 - 110.2 and power moves 5-4-2. Now come down to line 9 the Meadowlands route. Has the LEAD at the first call in a 2 turn route in a 22.2. He is now FAST and WINS from the 1st position knocking the 3 horse out. IN

Match the 8 against the 9 - The 9 shows 1 race against the pace,line 2. Horror show and OUT.


The 8 is the horse to beat with the 3 as the "other horse".

THIS is how Jim taught me to work races with him ok? A horse by horse matchup NEVER focusing on only one paceline (using pieces of different fast races where the horse was competitive) and NEVER carrying a projected pace to the finish.

Jeff we will do another "live" race next week where we can project a pace from an on the lead horse.

Richie

[shoeless]

Richie,Great job explaining how you went about matching up the horses for that race and how Hat goes about doing it.Before when I was doing it I was using the final time and the second fraction .I really wasn't looking at the 1st,2nd and stretch positions but now you have cleared that up for me.Can you please explain the backup line?I would enjoy doing another live race sometime and I will look as well.When we do can you use the pp's again,I guess in that respect Jim and I are the same nothing is better then the good old racing form.Send Jim my regards and I'm glad if this is able to take his mind off other things even for a little bit.Jeff

[Rxlawyer]

Richie:

What a tremendous service to those of us on this site trying to learn the Matchup. Absolutely fantastic job!

Gary L.

[raceman5]

job RichieP, the best explanation of a match up race i have ever read. Clear, concise and done horse by horse. I think what would be cool is if we did a race of the week. You post the race then we post our analysis. Then you give yours like you just did. I think this would be a great teaching aid and we would all be on the same page.

Bob