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2015 Friday and Saturday Oct 30/31 - Keeneland, KY

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Old 10-29-2015, 03:46 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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BC Turf sprint, Race 4 - Saturday

Contenders pacelines and running style:
Looks to be run quite quickly. I started by giving each horse its running style based on very quick fractions and then looked to see the furthest position back from which each horse won or was within about 1/2 a length. The 2 quickest appear to be the 1 and 5. the 1 has broken 4th in last two and either gets or pushes lead; the 5 is more likely to break first, but the faster 1C for the 1 probably puts these two eyeball to eyeball. You can see about 6 others that need to be or very near the lead to win, so this pace cooks them out.

The 2 won last year by coming from off the pace down the hill at SA. I am confused because all other good races last yr were early and comeback effort this yr was early. Last yrs adjusted speed rating was 82. I usually allow another 5 pts to the SA turf sprints, so the 2 could be on the board at 87 which is close to the top figures of 90 and 89???

That leaves the 3-7-9-11-15 as horses vs fast paces that win from mid to late pack. the 3 is my favorite and then the 9.

The 2 and 3 are top 2 in both APV and Class; the 3 is top 5 CSR (5th)

Good luck to you all,
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Old 10-29-2015, 04:17 PM   #2
Bill Lyster
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BC Filly and Mare Sprint - 7 furlongs, race 5

there are six horses entered that have only won races on the lead, or a close 2nd or third. NONE of them has won a GRADE 1 race. The 2-5-11-14 are the only Grade 1 winners and ALL are either pressers or sustained pressers. Not surprisingly the 11-5-14-2 are top 5 APV and Class. The 14 is top CSR and none of the other Grade 1 winners is top 5 CSR. The 5 has been off since last years BC with plenty of works, but iffy at this level. The 2-11-14 have all won from 5th or farther back at this pace; Judy the Beauty, the 11 does not look as good as last year, so that leave Cavorting the probable favorite and Dame Dorothy. Of the non grade 1 winners the 7 Wavell Avenue might be the fastest closer.

Good luck going forward,,,,,
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Old 11-01-2015, 08:43 AM   #3
RichieP
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Of the non grade 1 winners the 7 Wavell Avenue might be the fastest closer.

Good luck going forward,,,,,
I hope you cashed on this one Bill! Nice call man
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