MatchUp Positioning

[MIKE1121]

I will do a LIVE race tommorow after I download my race file, It will show what I am talking about.


Mike.

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by don p

TO VOODOO......i really don'tuse where a horse breaks until i need it...to establish the pace of the race i only look for the one's at the two furlong call..as for routers taking the lead on sprinters the way to start seeing that before the race is to qualify the speed and see if they have ever given up the lead in a sprint or route...some of these horses are "pretend" lead horses and routers can take the lead if they want it....

Good stuff to think about, good show, Don P, thanks.

VoodooFan

[MIKE1121]

Sam Houston 2-15 race 2........ I don't know how to load the pps, maybe someone can do this.

I have noticed that looking at how many times a horse has run at a particular position in the pack, it is a fairly reliable indicator of where he will be positioned today i.e. you can predict the position of a horse after 2 furlongs.
This is useful if you wish to elimminate horses who you see may be too far back at the beggining of a race.

I see all field sizes as if they had 10 entrys it makes it easyier.. so if a horse exits a 5 horse field and he is in 3rd his position is equivalent to being 6th in a 10 horse field ( pretty much in the middle of a field ). 1rst is always 1rst,no matter the field size.

The breakdown of todays horses i.e the positions they hold the most often.I group them 1-2, 3-4 , 5-6, 7-8, 9-10.

1. 9 races is 1rst or 2nd , 1 race 3-4

2. 6 races is 9-10th he is mostly last or 2nd to last

3. 3 races 5-6, 3 races 9-10th

4. 7 races 1-2 , 1race 3-4th

5. even thru ought

6. 3 races 3-4th position, 2races 5-6th position

7. 4 races 1-2, 4 races 3-4th positions

8. 4 races 7-8th positions

9. 4 races 5-6th position, 2 races 7-8th position

10. 4 races 9-10th position, 3 races 7-8th position

11. 8 races 1-2 position 1 race 3-4

12. 6 races 3-4 th position.


1rst call prediction the # 1 horse will be the leader , the # 2 horse will be last after 2 furlongs. the predicted position of all the horses top to bottom, with the bottom being last after 2 furlongs.

1
11
4
7
12
6
5
9
8
3
10
2

See what happens when the charts are done. usually using this position only, i will get the top half and the last 3 bottom feeders right. This is still a work in progress, but it is another way of looking at predicting position. If a horse has a troubled trip at the gate this will effect his position, no one can predict trouble.


Mike

[RichieP]

Mike
Here is a link to a free screen capture program: http://wisdom-soft.com/products/screenhunter_free.htm

That will enable you to post pp's,screen shots etc in the future. If you need any help setting it up just holler.


Here are the pp's for your race mentioned above. The time shown are in 10ths. The lower tab shows tandems.

Horses 1-4

[RichieP]

horses 5-8

[RichieP]

to complete the field horses 9-12

[VoodooFan]

Richies 8 month update - 5th key spot play : Lone Early -1st Example race :

Divide--Aqu--8.5d--24.1--48.2--112.9--145.5 1[1.5]-1[2.5]-1[hd]-3[2.5]

Dodge--Aqu--6.0d--23 -46.3 --58.9 --111.9 3[2.1]-3[1.6]-2[hd]-1[hd]

Nine - Aqu--8.5d--24.1--48.4 --114.2--146.6 4[4.6]-1[.5]--1[hd]-1[1]

I would suppose "proven fighter" or " proven challenger" does NOT apply to
Dodge. A Presser that's "BEHIND" the Boss and behind the Early Presser.

Although penalizing him with even 4/5ths at the 1st fraction would
"mathematically" have him at least tied, or challenging for the lead.
Coupled with that 46.3 as compared to a 48.2 EASY lead.

GATE start positions for various distances + Running Style +
Past Performance Positions = "Actual " Position ?? (Reality)?

VoodooFan

[MIKE1121]

Now that the results are in. Looking at just frequency of a horses position after running 2 furlongs and its predictability of todays position.
I predicted that the #1 horse would lead and the #2 would be last at first call, with the rest in the following positions to the Right I will post the actual order at the 2 furlong mark, with the leader on top and the horse in last at the bottom.

1. 1................1
2. 11................11
3. 4..................7
4. 7..................8
5. 12................4
6. 6.................. 5
7. 5.................. 2
8. 9..................6
9. 8................. 3
10. 3................ 10
11 10............... 9
12 2................. 12


The complete misses where the 12, I had the 12 at position 5 , he was last at the first call. The #8 horse also surprised me he was 4th I thought he would be 9th. The # 2 was my biggest surprise I thought he would be 12th he was 7th.

The rest fell at or close to their frequency of position. 12 horse fields are a little tougher to get, 7 or 8 horse fields many times will fall at or within a position.

mike.

[don p]

good work mike.

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by MIKE1121

Looking at just frequency of a horses position after running 2 furlongs and its predictability of todays position.

Very interesting MatchUp research , Mike.

More results like these would solidify and give one confidence in ones
ability to put horses in their position , MATCHUP style.

Nice.

VoodooFan