At The table with Bill

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by JimG

The moderators should really consider making this thread a "sticky" thread. It is an excellent example and would be easy for newcomers to follow. Great work Bill!
Jim

Damn fine idea!!
Maybe Ted could link to this workup by Bill when folks sign on with Rdss or Pace and Cap. Then Doc's legacy and core guidelines for contender/paceline selection/hiding/wagering can be right up front for folks to have at their disposal courtesy of Mr. Binder

[tom]

Good thread - very informative.
It's like still getting the Follow Up.

[RichieP]

Info coming in from Jersey that our fearless leader stopped off from work to nail today's Philly 5th race. BOTH the win and exacta safely in the gents pocket!

-

$16.00
$72.40

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Info coming in from Jersey that our fearless leader stopped off from work to nail today's Philly 5th race. BOTH the win and exacta safely in the gents pocket!
-

$16.00
$72.40

"I'm not writing a will Give me $50 win tickets
Jay Trotter Let it Ride

Thanks Rich
Hello To Pace and Cap.
This was one I will never forget. I have had many bigger. Very few will ever
lift me up like this one. It showed something to myself.
Words of love can reach you in time
What you truly feel in your gut is fueled by
a deep self belief. Today I think I turned the corner. I feel I
can do well. I have just myself to overcome doing things the way
you feel are right is a big step Can you get into the zone?
It is possible.

What happened ? I broke down and was stranded. My van full of deliveries and a full days work along with my already beaten down stress
filled mind had to be towed to a repair shop
4 hours later I was told that the cost of basically a whole new
rear brake system and brake line would be needed Big deal no, but not now
not when I know any day I'm gonna lose my biggest account
as well as my inside job and benefits as that company is just about done
I was beat man I was shot

I was stuck I sat there in the waiting area feeling sorry for myself
Then I thought what the heck, Open the laptop and see whats happening at
Philly. I downloaded The card I opened it in Val 4
Just needed some happy comfort The Dos blue screen was magic
Opened 4njbets, 12 minutes to race 5 perfect.
Suddenly I was back in Doc's office Putting in my lines
Hiding to the top 5 Total energy and Primary line score.
Bet the horse in the top 3 that would pay over 5/2
That would be the # 10.
Bet the horse in the top 3 that is the best overlay
That would be the 1.
What about the 8 its the favorite and its right there
tied at VDC 1 with the 10
Follow Doc's guideline and make a exacta key box
8 /1 10
But Bill.. Are you sure you should do this?
You know what I did ? I snapped my rubberband on my wrist and said
The 1 or the 10 is winning this race
You have got it now put in the bets
I did and the 1 did win , The 8 flew up late for the place and exacta
Nothing like that feeling
Thanks for letting me share it
Bill

[JimG]

Bill,

Sounds like you had a tough day and was given lemons but you made lemonade with them...Congrats.

When you get time, I would appreciate your thoughts on when to pass a race you have worked? Thanks.

Jim

[azbacks]

Bill,

Thanks for the very informative examples. I'm with JimG, some insight into what races you pick or pass and why.

Glad your day had a bit of a silver lining. Try not to worry too much about things that are out of your control. Good luck with your work stuff.

Have a great Christmas everyone. Ho, Ho, HO!!!!!!

Pete

[Bill V.]

Hi Jim and Pete

If I open a race I almost always bet it
here is a screen shot of Sundays Fair Grounds card

During the week I usually can only do 1 or 2 races a day
and maybe 2 at night. So I just look at the card and
pick one. I work it and bet off the morning line. I wait to see
the results later. I am not a fan of watching races that
I bet. I love to watch them when I don't bet them

On weekends I down load two tracks and between the two
I get enough action that passing these race types is fine with me.

The difference is working a race than not making a bet or Passing
Or not even looking at a race at all
Here is the screen shot
Thanks Bill

[rjaymes24]

BILL, Newbie here. Where can i find a copy of this "Follow up"? And i am confused with all the abbreviations, anywhere can I find what CPR, TT, HE, Fw means. thanks. Ryan

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by rjaymes24

BILL, Newbie here. Where can i find a copy of this "Follow up"? And i am confused with all the abbreviations, anywhere can I find what CPR, TT, HE, Fw means. thanks. Ryan

You can find all the answers in the Sartin Library media center

http://paceandcap.com/forums/announcement.php?f=38

Thanks and Good Skill

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by rjaymes24

BILL, Newbie here. Where can i find a copy of this "Follow up"? And i am confused with all the abbreviations, anywhere can I find what CPR, TT, HE, Fw means. thanks. Ryan

Ryan,

I encourage you to spend some time reviewing the Follow Up journals in the Library, as Bill advises and which I think you have access to, beginning with Issues 70 and forward. Doc Sartin talks regularly about the different factors which make up the Primary and Supplementary Factor sets.

Here, though, is a quicky primer on the factors you mention:

CPR - the aggregate of EPR and LPR (Early Pace to the 2nd call and Final Fraction respectively). A beginning measurement of Composite Pace, also referred to as a Total Pace Rating, as labeled and described in the early 90's Sartin Methodology intro book Pace Makes the Race. The differential between EPR and LPR creates the Early/Late Differential Graph (all found on the TPR+E/L screen) which can give a model for winners of the balance of energy (E or L) required for a given track, surface and distance - or for knowing which horse(s) in today's matchup display extreme or opposite energy disbursement patterns.

TT - Turn Time, a measurement of the 2nd fraction of a race's segments, so called because on many tracks and at some distances (e.g. sprints) the majority of the 2nd fraction of a race occurs on the far turn (see Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping for more discussion, or numerous Follow Ups)

HE - Hidden Energy, an aggregate of 2nd and 3rd fraction, so called because the calculation is somewhat 'hidden' from the general public (you need to extract the 2nd fraction velocity, the 3rd fraction and more or less average them.

FW - (Factor Win), similar to CPR, but weighted more Early for sprints and more Late for routes.

FX - Average of 1st and 3rd fractions.


These 7 compounded Primary Factors are based on velocity and are themselves aggregated and weighted to become the Bottom Line Score which forms one of the core 'magic numbers' in later Sartin software (e.g. along with V/DC and Total Energy).

Again, much more nuance and inter-relationships are discussed in later Follow Ups.

Hope that helps!

Ted