Track Comparisons

[Houndog]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Mike:

A question of clarity. Does your data include all races at a particular track? Does it exclude maidens or is it just for older horses.

Thanks,

Bill

Bill no it does not include all races. These would be your theoretical 10K pars for older horses.

[Tim Y]

You cannot average out something as DISTANCE SPECIFIC as % median. Doing that negates the entire idea of using it as a predictor!


Sprints are then TRACK specific as Oaklawn runs about three to four points lower than inner Aqueduct at 6.0 furlongs but at a mile or 8.5 they are very different.

[Charlie D]

Thanks Mike

Good Skill

[Tim Y]

Again maidens run about 25 to 30 % earlier than fields of winners

[Tim Y]

Then there is another layer on top of all of this: when the maintenance crew plays games and when it is very wet. BOTH can up the early by a large margin so it is best to follow the race to race early/late not an average.

Case in point is the Oaks/Derby track. Whatever bias, IF ANY, there is on Friday tells you what to look for on Derby Day.

[Houndog]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

You cannot average out something as DISTANCE SPECIFIC as % median. Doing that negates the entire idea of using it as a predictor!


Sprints are then TRACK specific as Oaklawn runs about three to four points lower than inner Aqueduct at 6.0 furlongs but at a mile or 8.5 they are very different.

Tim they are all at 6 furlongs so that is distance specific. I also said I did not find much useful information averaging %MED.

[Houndog]

This post has nothing to do with the match-up or an individual race. I am well aware if you have a lone early unchallenged for the lead it will save energy and can win by daylight.

If you put a Calder line for a horse running at Emerald Downs for example the horse in all likelihood will be very deficient in Total Energy. Calder has been this way for as long as I can remember. Validator; Speculator; and RDSS takes care of this to a certain degree because it has adjustments Track to Track; ITV incorporated in the program.

I am not trying to reinvent the wheel and made no assumptions regarding many of the tracks. We have very few Energy/THOROMATION user here so none of this except for in a very general way applies to most here.

Some people have said that the adjustments are not very good in Energy/THOROMATION. Years ago these programs were considered Doc Sartin's flagship product as Doc had not yet embraced par times.

[tom]

It was the best of time, it was the worst of times.

Richie takes the concept and goes and wins three or four races.
Tim makes three or four post why it won't work.

The Yin and Tan of adjustments.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by tom

It was the best of time, it was the worst of times.

Richie takes the concept and goes and wins three or four races.
Tim makes three or four post why it won't work.

The Yin and Tan of adjustments.

Supposition without a shred of evidence one way or the other.

You would, and do make a bad debater, and would be a bad lawyer

[Charlie D]

Tim
Remember, there are no rules, so "can not" should not enter your vocabulary