Fastest Pace Last Race

[MikeB]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Hi guys,
Wow I see a "FPLR" thread and had to look in!

Jim LOVED this and it is the FIRST concept he showed me with a BOMB winner (one of course I did NOT get at first look til he showed me his "stuff"!! lol)

Jump right in Richie, the water's fine.

Any comments or additions to what is already here would be a big help.

Thanks.

[RichieP]

Jim always worked races projecting paces and analyzing races 1c-2c-sc. Final time involvement brought too many sustained runners as final contenders for me who very rarely won.

Projecting pace was 1c-2c, in routes he would also have me look at the first fraction which virtually nobody paid any attention to. He would tell me when people said it didnt matter to have them go run a quarter mile down the block!

He lays out 2 methods to project pace in his 5 step approach, for myself the first way where there is an actual early runner ( leading or fighting for the lead at 1c and 2c) has worked very nicely.

The second way where an OTE runner has faced the FPLR Jim had me pay special attention to horses that gained both positions and beaten lengths from the 1c to 2c. Check field size and if they were in say midpack or closer positionally and gained those positions and lengths 1c to 2c they were to be evaluated as a contender today if the race shape for the winner was called as OTE. While this is not the same exact process as outlined in the 5 step approach it is what he did with me when there was no true early runner to project the pace with.

I am off to work now, later I will explain his first way in detail and give you a couple of "keys" Jim gave me to look for with the early runners that might signal a big paying mutual today.

Richie

[Mark]

Richie,
I have read your postings in the Hat Check so many times, I feel like I know you. Of course, that is not the case and i realize that much of that was done over 5 years ago and you have a family and a full time profession now. So i will try to keep it short.
I open every race with the last line selected and go immediately to the Velocity POR screen. Starting with the top horse which may or may not be the #1 1st fraction horse but is the #1 2nd Call horse I will switch to the Original screen to see what kind of race that horse ran. Generally speaking, if the pace was not super hot and the horse attempted to Press it and then faded in the final fraction I will not consider his finish good enough unless he finished within 2 lengths. If he did Press a hot pace and faded I will consider it a good effort if he finished within 5 to 7.5 lengths.(I use Val4 format). My effort to learn the Match Up has taken me 3 1/2 years. I have been handicapping the horses for over 50 years. Part of that time was figuring out how to use RDSS2 to implement the Match Up. With the choices of Variant application it is no mean task.
I will start throwing horses out starting with the top horse on the Velocity-POR screen that do not finish well enough until I get to a horse that Pressed or set the Early Pace and finished to my specifications. I have vacillated back and forth as to use the Top 1st fraction horse on this screen or the way they are listed, top 2nd call. I realize the "The Hat" emphasized in his comments and through you on the blog the importance of the 1st fraction and I am a believer. But I also have found the importance of the 2nd fraction which often will bring the 1st fraction leader and the fast moving 2nd fraction horse to even terms. If the 1st fraction horse falls off the cliff in the 2nd fraction generally he is done.
I like older claimers at cheap tracks and NW-2L and NW-3L races. You normally have 10 lines on each horse and it is easier for me to decipher what the trainer is doing. If there is no horse that meets the requirements for FPLR, then I usually just pick POWER LINES and attempt to determine who has been brought up to today's race and might be able to reproduce that effort if it is deep in the pps.
Once I find the FPLR horse I try to find a better line deeper in his pps. I also look for efforts in the last 4 lines which show versatility in Running style that I can be apply Voodoo #1 technique. There are limitations here with RDSS2 as most of this has to be done mentally and my short term memory is not what it once was. Once I have him set I look at horses that can beat him by selecting all the horse's lines, go to Analysis and again Velocity POR to see if the horse ever ran well against the FPLR's finalized paceline POR. This is my concession to variant adjustment because in races with shippers I don't know the 1st fraction adjustments and although for along time would not use DTV, I have recently adopted the 50% DTV +/- 50, ITV and Val4 format. For the most part I think this is serviceable.
Horses are either accepted or thrown out after this exercise. However, I do not eliminate the Non-contenders from the screen. I usually leave them in the Non-contender section off the line that had the closest 1st fraction POR. In this way I can make the variegation call using all horses to determine early contention.
Are there errors in your opinion in the method I am using and if so what suggestions would you make.
Thank you again for your time and all the effort you have put into carrying Jim's work into the future!

[RichieP]

Hi Mark,
Your process looks great (especially if it is making you money!).

Let me share with you and everyone a technique that Jim showed me that led to a bomb winner (this has repeated many times FWIW). It is going to be a variation on what you are doing but check it out going forward and see if it is something that works for you ok?

FPLR Early runner bomb detector:
1) Wait for the FPLR horse to have both 1c and 2c fastest POR along with an Early running style. He should be fighting for the lead at BOTH calls.

2) After the 2nd call he(she) completely packs it in losing by double digit lengths. Speed rating looking at final time is HORRIBLE. (Matchers at least those following Hat's Methodology pay virtually NO attention to final time)

3) Look at today's Matchup. Look at every horse's running style. Mark every horse's Power Line. Match all the Power Lines against our Early runner's best line. If the Early guy can't be beat looking at Power Lines assume with confidence the early guy is in form and he is "Your Horse" as Jim would say to me!

This is a Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw spot play "Early" given to me in 2006. I am so glad I took notes and actually kept them (Karen is a huge help!!!)

More later on his FPLR teachings to me. My grandson, stepdaughter are here and family is calling!

Richie

[Mark]

I appreciate your comments, however I have realized over the last 3 1/2 years I am not a Jim Bradshaw. I am in awe of Jim Bradshaw and believe in his Match Up certainly, but my primary task is to figure out how to implement his teachings, concepts and principles via RDSS2. It is just a fact of life that I begrudgingly have come to accept. My canvas is the Original screen and other adjusted screens in RDSS2. So while I have looked forward to opening a dialog with you, it may very well be that you handicap from the Racing Form as Jim did and I will continue to have to experiment and attempt to use the RDSS2 program in a manner that is consistent with his teachings.
For example when I have assigned Running Styles and established a projected pace either through the use of FPLR or via POWER LINES, my reality is the Segment screen. These numbers and visuals are what I have to develop pattern recognition with. The Energy screen is also helpful especially if I think the race will run Late as the L/EP# is extremely good. And when my final contenders are off of the same track I can usually use the Original screen and voodoo lines to find the "horse closest to the leader, factoring in the pace of the race. Your 3 matching early spot play is easily seen there as well. I have also learned to discount horses with earlier ESP than their Running Style in my contender selection. If an E or EP shows position over 4 at the 1st fraction that is a pretty good indication he/she is not going to be near the lead today against these competitors,
Any advice or suggestions relative to use of implementing the Match Up via RDSS2 would be greatly appreciated.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Mark

I appreciate your comments, however I have realized over the last 3 1/2 years I am not a Jim Bradshaw. I am in awe of Jim Bradshaw and believe in his Match Up certainly, but my primary task is to figure out how to implement his teachings, concepts and principles via RDSS2. It is just a fact of life that I begrudgingly have come to accept. My canvas is the Original screen and other adjusted screens in RDSS2. So while I have looked forward to opening a dialog with you, it may very well be that you handicap from the Racing Form as Jim did and I will continue to have to experiment and attempt to use the RDSS2 program in a manner that is consistent with his teachings.
For example when I have assigned Running Styles and established a projected pace either through the use of FPLR or via POWER LINES, my reality is the Segment screen. These numbers and visuals are what I have to develop pattern recognition with. The Energy screen is also helpful especially if I think the race will run Late as the L/EP# is extremely good. And when my final contenders are off of the same track I can usually use the Original screen and voodoo lines to find the "horse closest to the leader, factoring in the pace of the race. Your 3 matching early spot play is easily seen there as well. I have also learned to discount horses with earlier ESP than their Running Style in my contender selection. If an E or EP shows position over 4 at the 1st fraction that is a pretty good indication he/she is not going to be near the lead today against these competitors,
Any advice or suggestions relative to use of implementing the Match Up via RDSS2 would be greatly appreciated.

Hey Mark,
The post I made above is 100% doable with RDSS ( I know because RDSS is ALL I use when I go racing). Speaking for myself I have issues understanding the written word so please forgive me if my response to your initial post was "short". Jim always taught me over the phone and looking at races in front of me.

I have an idea if it's cool with you. Let's do a race or 2 together before it runs. You pick a race or 2 for us to work, let me know the day before so I can download the track (s) and we will have at it! I like your criteria of older horses with everyone having 10 running lines to evaluate. We can do it privately by phone or post up the pps and workup here, whatever works for you ok? It's all good!

This weekend is completely tied up for me with my Grandson's Christening party tomorrow at our home. We have a ton of people coming and Karen and I are going crazy today and tomorrow AM setting things up, cooking etc etc.

Maybe next weekend? I checked with Karen and she said Saturday morning is clear for me for at least a couple of hours maybe we can look at a couple for Saturday or the next days racing. Personally I like fuller fields with at least 8 betting entries, no maidens. I look at all 3 surfaces.

Have a great day
Richie

[raceman5]

Would love to see the work ups here so we can all get a lesson.

Bob

[MikeB]

I too would like to watch along, and I am sure others would also. If you guys could indicate the races to be worked here as soon as possible, that would be great.

I use RDSS and my methods are a lot more like what Richie is talking about, but I think Mark has some good ideas about other ways to approach it and I'd like to see those in more detail.

Thanks

[Mark]

First, let me say that I am both humbled and extremely appreciative by your offer. Over the last 3 1/2 years many is the time that I wished for exactly this kind of opportunity. I even asked Ted if you were available and he explained that handicapping had taken a backseat to the very full and happy family life you now enjoy as well as full time employment.
I am retired and can make myself available whenever you have time. Other than tending to the chickens, caring for my heirloom tomatoes or our 6 dogs, my main activity is handicapping.
So as to maximize the value of this interaction possibly we can do it in such a way that interested members on the website can follow along. However, I have no experience in doing this type of thing so would ask that you set the rules and parameters how this is to be done. Saturday next would be ideal or Sunday for that matter, whatever works for you best. Either day we have nearly unlimited tracks to play. I tend to shy away from top quality races as the horses are too consistent and basically the pace scenario or obvious pure athletic talent determines the outcome. I almost never play a race with less than 8 betting interests as well. I like all surfaces but am less confident when the track gets sealed prior to or during rain storms. Alas, I love older cheap claimers at cheap tracks or Non-winners of 2 or 3 lifetime at same. These are the types of races as I am sure you can attest where trainers are trying to put a horse over at a big price to pay the feed bill and handicappers willing to go deeper into the past performances for a paceline are handsomely rewarded.
In my experience, too many folks pulling at the steering wheel tends to produce bad results. So if agreeable with you, please pick day, time and races and establish the ground rules. I believe that a great many Matchers and others will put it on their calendar. After all, you are doing us a great service.
Thank you again for this opportunity, I am very appreciative.

[DaveEdwards]

Excellent stuff. Looking forward to this.