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03-13-2007, 10:59 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Woodbine info to review: Season opens 3/31!
Here is a little study I did of the last week of Woodbine from last year - Dec 6-10th. I will post the place, show and 4th place file a little later.
This study started as a result of a comment made to me by Ted Craven. The short story is that I was trying to relate the Perceptor 1 (Per 1) ranking with the Deceleration (Decel) rank to see if I could perhaps find a useful tool that was not already identified within the methodology. Big surprise, Doc Sartin had already got it right! I will say this. The Per 1 + Decel ranking was most useful at 8.5 furlongs as you can see from the win profile. The right side of win summary shows whether the win and place horses were found in the top 6 PER, [W/P top6] whether the win, place and show horses were in the top 6 PER, [WPS top 6] whether the first 4 finishers were in the top 6 [1-4th Top 6] and whether my handicapping captured the splitzacta [W/S top 6] There is a summary worksheet behind the win profile that summarizes %med and E/L info. I only did this for win contenders (so far) Hope you find this info useful. I for one am looking forward to Woodbine's opening day. Now I only have to hope that the West Coast simulcast geniuses continue to take the feed from Canada. Bill |
03-13-2007, 11:13 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
Woodbine - place, show and 4th info
Place, show and 4th place horse from woodbine, sorted by distance.
A small caveat. This last week of racing in Toronto had several huge fields most probably because it was a last chance to make money before either shipping out or wintering in. So I expect that the prices on some of the favorites were artificially higher than normal as a result of 12 and sometimes 15 horse fields. There were obviously a lot of horses running for one last piece of a purse that were not really win contenders. One item of interest relating to Per 1 rankings. Horses with very high, in fact too high '%med' often ranked in the top 2 or 3 Per 1 rankings. (and often as a result would appear in the top 3 BL/BL) At first based on intuition and later supported by the summary of winning '%med' info I threw these horses out of the mix. For example surprisingly often you could find a #1 TE horse which was also #1 Per 1 horse with a %med of say 71.3 for a sprint. These horses seldom, if ever, hit the top 2 spots on the board despite their total energy ranking and Per 1 ranking. Note: This study was made before Richie layed open the wonders of The Matchup. One of my long term goals is to revisit this work to see if I can identify any of the spot plays developed by Richie with The Hat's tutelage. Happy to answer any questions. Bill |
03-13-2007, 02:29 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 708
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Woodbine WINTER is NOT Woodbine Spring. These horses are NOT going to run any distance races for the first few weeks as most have been off all year. Winter racing is all about speed and the first few weeks are all about conditioning.
ALSO, when I talked to a fellow who works there recently, the polytrack people came back and re-surfaced as well. That track is NOT the one that was there in December as it did not react well with the deep cold.
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velocititian Last edited by tompkins; 03-13-2007 at 02:37 PM. |
03-14-2007, 11:26 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 708
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different
In studying the tracks that have made the change to artificial surfaces :Keeneland, Turfway (have not looked at Hollywood), Woodbine's has NOT changed that dramatically as compared to these others: it remains a speedball's paradise, just not to the same extent as before. Their seven furlong profile is unique in all of racing.
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velocititian |
03-14-2007, 11:36 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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7F quirks
One of the things that I noticed when doing this study was the noticeable demarcation line in the paceline lines of horses that had previously run at both 7 furlongs and less than 7 furlongs. You could observe that there were only a few true 7 furlong horses on the grounds because for many horses their 6f %med numbers would be well within the 6f acceptable range, but as soon as they tried 7 furlongs, they went crazy high, like from say mid to high 69's to well over 70, and as a result, automatic toss outs. I have never previously seen such a marked jump, or slump as the case may be, with a 1 furlong distance change. All of what makes Woodbine such an interesting proposition to bet.
Bill |
03-15-2007, 11:18 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 708
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comparisons
If you compare the shifts in energy distribution in, let's say routes before and after the surface chagnes at Keeneland, the e/l numbers are downright CRAZY going from averages of -1 to +3 TO -12 to -4 (both a more negative and wider range) whereas Woodbine before and after changes were minimal.
All Polys are no more the same than dirt tracks. I have to agree with Andy Beyer who put out a very simple, though logical thought (and I am paraphrasing here): "Do you want racetracks to all be the same? Then you will have the situation that exists in harness racing and the fan who studies the differences tracks make on performance will no longer have any edge." I stongly believe, as the data shows at Turfway (2nd hand information from several freinds), once these new tracks settle into a pattern, it is Sartin methods, with our ability to evaluate the energy requirements of a course, that will give US the edge.
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velocititian |
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