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05-04-2012, 08:50 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 134
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Kentucky Derby
I'll be the first here......I'm liking El Padrino. If you look at his past performances, he tied a track record at GP, broke a track record at FG, then bounced in the Florida derby. I'm hoping he bounces back in the derby...I'll be paying him to win and an exacta boxes with him and Bodemeister, Daddy Nose Best, and Went the Day Well.
I'm throwing out Union Rags....his figures haven't improved from last year...could be a mistake, but you have to take a stand somewhere. I love derby day, huge pools and the chance for some major scores. Good luck to all and I'm hoping everyone makes some kind of score! Mr Bill |
05-05-2012, 08:50 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
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I will make 6 horses my picks if the track becomes muddy
3 / 4 / 6 / 11 / 15 / 16 Without mud, then I am more confused, but may look to the following... Alpha Gemologist El Padrino Bodemiester Dullahan Take Charge Indy I'll have another Went the day well there you have it, as you can see I have no Idea who will win this race Dullahan /Bodemiester would be my keys
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05-05-2012, 10:28 AM | #3 |
Dap Daddi
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I am going to take a chance with a big win bet on Alpha. He reminds me of Manarchos who ran 2nd in the Wood and won the Kentucky Derby at a healthy price. His numbers per RDSS is in the top 3 of contenders.
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05-05-2012, 11:19 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Given the strong collection of Early horses here (Hansen, Trinniberg, Bodemeister, Gemologist), yet no dominance by any of them, I'd have to make this a race favouring Other Than Earlies, though I would not put it past the maturing Bode or the superconsistent Gemologist (though I'd like to see higher class race wins) to finish somewhere in my superfecta.
So, my top Other Than Early, Late energy, VDC horses are: Alpha Dullahan Union Rags in likely descending order of post-time odds. I thought the race was going to be inscrutable (as I usually do going into it ) but it seemed to shake out like it always does using a few reliable guidelines: 1. Use Win or very close 2nd finish in G1 or G2 races, this year, the longer the better 2. Emphacize Late energy (L/ep, LPR, TS+F3) but not at the expense of Total Energy 3. Identify if the Earlies with any of the above are too disadvantaged by a surplus of other early competitors. 4. Get a price. Alpha and Dullahan may offer all of the above plus a good price. Good luck to all! Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
05-05-2012, 12:25 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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6-11-14 for me
good luck all mike
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
05-05-2012, 02:28 PM | #6 |
Happy Punting
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 481
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Tough to call....
I really think Union Rags has a monster race today - however, I will take 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 15, 19.
Happy Punting JD |
05-05-2012, 02:40 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Derby
4-6-9-14
Good Luck All |
05-05-2012, 02:52 PM | #8 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,678
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Quote:
I'll probably put a wager on him and also "Went The Day Well" as a live longshot. |
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05-05-2012, 03:24 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Pembroke Pines, FL
Posts: 170
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Dullahan
Hansen Creative Cause |
05-05-2012, 06:03 PM | #10 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 57
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Win bets on Dullahan & Alpha
Will use them with Union Rags, Creative Cause & Hansen in the exotics |
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