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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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11-20-2009, 01:02 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hollywood Bills
Hello from Las Vegas!!! on my way to
San Diego I am doing this race while I wait for my connection flight to San Diego Lets look at race 7 from Hollywood 11/19 6.0 turf I have made my lines selections in RDSS I will work the race in Entropy/kgen I have added my line selection thoughts in a Tick box notepad Last edited by Bill V.; 11-20-2009 at 04:42 PM. |
11-20-2009, 01:05 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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next
..... slot machines in the airport
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11-20-2009, 01:07 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Pretty Girls
playing mentioned slot machines
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11-20-2009, 01:09 PM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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ok I have to board
I will type lines into Entropy/kgen and
make selections on the plane ride to San Diego Next stop San Diego GS Bill |
11-20-2009, 05:37 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Screens
Some entropy readouts
first lines I made the 6 a 6 furlong race by adding 2 6.2 seconds to its final time of 56.0 I left the Favorite as a 8.0 distance |
11-20-2009, 05:40 PM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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En Gen and Velocity
Here is the engen with all the horses entered
I make my first hides from the Velocity pars screen |
11-20-2009, 05:42 PM | #7 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Down to 5
Now I get the race down to 5 horses
The readouts on the sort and Kgraphs say My best are the 4 and 5 Hope they run |
11-20-2009, 10:33 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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A chance to make a noteworthy comparison or is it just not relevant
There are several horses in this race that either have only run turf sprints on the Santa Anita 6.5 down the hill course or have only run flat sprints at Hollywood or other places. I think this is an opportunity to draw some rough parallels for the jump between the 6.5t race and flat races.
Look at the #3 Precious Union who has run races on flat sprints with adjust speed ratings of 85 85 81 and down the hill at 73 77 76 75 78 while being relatively competitive on each course. We might be able to note for future reference that 77 78 down the hill is equivalent to 85 or so on the flats. Anyone have any other info on these races? Bill Last edited by Bill Lyster; 11-20-2009 at 10:34 PM. Reason: clarified repeated text |
11-21-2009, 01:24 AM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Results: 3 nosed out the 10
Well, one race does not make a rule, but perhaps we can find some useful information to help us later. I put the best 6 and 6.5 Turf races in for the winning 3 and the only 6.5 race from the 10. I left in the rest of MY original contenders, Not Bill V's. In my set up I used line 3 from #3 an 85 from Hol. You can see that the 3 also ran a 78 and a 79 at SA - 6.5 turf and that the only turf sprint for the 10 was a 79 adjusted speed rating. So its possible that the 10 improved, but off best lines at Hol and SA turf sprints it appears that 6.5 furlong turfers with adjust speed ratings of 78 or 79 are equivalent to a Hollywood 6f adjusted speed ratings of 85. So you can add 7 or 6 pts to a SA 6.5 Turf sprint adjusted speed rating to gain some form of approximation to the flat Hollywood sprint adjust speed rating.
If you have some old races see how it works. One thing for sure. Even if you put a Holly 85 up against an SA 79 you will probably not be able to make sense of the velocity readings and maybe any other corollary readings because the internal fractions and the downhill portion of the SA race distorts the 1F, 2F and 3F info. (see the 2F info from the 6.5 races being low vs the Holly 6F and the 3F readings very high - this last is also a manifestation of the about distance that this race is run at. If I remember correctly the true distance is a little short of 6.5 furlongs, which by itself would make the 3F readings look fast.) The program favors the horse with the higher adjusted speed rating. See the Bl/Bl screen. Good luck this weekend, Bill |
11-21-2009, 08:36 AM | #10 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Results
well This surely was a Race of interest
Bill Lyster's work opens up questions and I appreciate the effort and ideas Looking back The 3 shows some issus with the hill so being back and in form on the flat was the key Bill's view of using flat and hill lines in a program like entropy fit my mindset and that is why I avoided them Well nether the 4 or 5 ran very well but I hope I shared some of my thoughts and the race helps you Thanks Bill and to all who looked in Bill |
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