Following the Derby Prep races using Sartin tools only - Page 4 - Pace and Cap

atkinsrr · 04-17-2012, 07:53 PM

I agree about the competitive field...I'm hoping for a favorite @ 5/1 or higher...also Pizzolla is correct about observing...with some races there are other factors that dominate besides the numbers and the Derby is usually one of those races. Prior trips @
CD very important and one factor I've always looked at is when a horse hasn't had a start as a 2yo...DOOMSDAY for him....BODEMEISTER??????? ENOUGH STAMINA TO GO 1 1/4 MILES ??????VERY QUESTIONABLE GOOD HCPG EVERYONE LET'S GET THIS ONE

trotman · 04-18-2012, 10:27 AM

Not just the Derby but horse racing in general I think of the line Sam Levenson wrote, "Our toaster has two settings: too soon or too late". Many trainers have tinkered with the way they want the jockey to ride the race and for that matter they the trainers tinkered with their training. Twenty horse field they don't want the rail or they don't want the outside. Then the aura of the tight turns at Churchill. So I think Levenson's line fits pretty well for the Derby. The best horse will win "The Run For The Roses" the most exciting two minutes in sport but for a handicapper a messy race to figure out.

lone speed · 04-18-2012, 11:50 PM

Bodemeister ran away from the field in the Arkansas Derby and is now the Derby favorite on most lists of top three. Bodemeister is also main subject of discussion on most speed boards and even Beyer himself, had to review the race and adjust the original Beyer that he had given to the Arkansas Derby winner. Bodemeister now has the higest derby prep race Beyer number of 108.

Dullahan won the Blue Grass in impressive fashion over the synthetic surface which favors closers and was given a 98 Beyer. After the finish line, the jockey had to pull up Dullahan shortly after the finish line as his mount was galloping out towards the outer rail. Hansen ran against the surface bias and ran as well as Bodemeister to lose to Dullahan by 1 1/4 length. Hansen and Bodemeister should make the pace in the Kentucky Derby along with Take Charge Indy who burned the 2nd fraction in the optional claiming race.

So with two weeks to the Derby, here are my opinion of the main contenders:

Bodemeister off the Arkansas Derby
Dullahan off the Blue Grass
Hansen off the Blue Grass
Creative Cause off the Santa Anita Derby/BC Juvenile
I'll Have Another off the Santa Anita Derby/RB Lewis
Take Charge Indy off the Florida Derby/optional claiming
Union Rags off the FOY/BC Juvenile
Mark Valeski off the Risen Star
El Padrino off the Risen Star/optional claiming
Daddy Nose Best off the Sunland Derby

Well, here's to the most exciting two minutes in horse racing....

Good Skills to all..

lone speed · 04-23-2012, 01:44 AM

courtesy of Sammy the Sage from another board

early pps of Kentucky Derby field from Bris

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/dby0505u.pdf

or From Daily Racing Form

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/k...ntenders_0.pdf

atkinsrr · 04-23-2012, 06:16 PM

Thx lone speed for the derby pp's...I will run them through my old hand entry synthesis program that "Doc" sent me in 1999 (I think) can't believe that old computer is still working....and I'll post the top 6 or 7 that it gives me...give me a few days Randy A.

Mrbill · 04-23-2012, 06:52 PM

Good evening;

I used the DRF past performances and entered them into VALM. Top 5 BL/BL horses are:

1) Daddy Nose Best
2) Dullahan
3) Bodemeister
4) Hansen
5) Take Charge Indy

Hope everyone hits a home run on derby day.

Mr Bill

atkinsrr · 04-23-2012, 08:59 PM

Just finished with synthesis hand entry for the derby..as you know the program has adjusted ratings and raw ratings on bl/bl and all corollaries...I'll give you the top 7 of each. ATM (adjusted) BLBL 1. Daddy Nose Best 2. Dullahan 3. Bodemeister 4. Alpha
5. Hansen 6. Mark Valeski 7. Done Talking
RAW BLBL 1. Creative Cause 2. I'll Have Another 3. Dullhan 4. Hansen 5. Daddy Nose Best 6. Done Talking 7. Take Charge Indy....I used only 9 Furlong pace lines and 2 of these horses ran in races with weak competition...Daddy Nose Best and Done Talking.
I eliminated those 2 and explored all the other factors and graphs that this program has and Union Rags showed up in the top 5 in tot energy...this is a difficult program to use and haven't used it very often since I've had rdss so I'm better off waiting for my track master download for rdss this is going to be a tough derby and we will need to use some non numerical factors and some of Bradshaws intuitive powers to pick this one

trotman · 04-30-2012, 05:01 PM

atkinsrr here is something no one believes about the Derby but if the track is fast for the day forget about what has happened early in the day by Derby posttime the track crew has tried to make the track as neutral as possible and should the track be slow they will do the opposite to speed it up. So now we come to the race and as you eluded to the raw figures and I do believe you are eliminating the noise in the race using raw figs, in a race that most years is messy and hard to handicap this race is more historical in how it is run and the running style to get the roses. On raw everything Creative Cause, El Padrino and Hansen to me are the contenders with 7 horses on the bubble who could win based on trouble and trip. Ok so there we have it 10 of 20 going into the gate and still no definate winner, all I know is if I don't get any value in this once a year Run For The Roses my money could be at Screwed Up Downs where I have value and a chance, because picking the winner in the Derby is no claim to fame.

atkinsrr · 04-30-2012, 06:42 PM

Trotman..I've been to CD many times and I seen the crew watering the track early in the day but late in the card they quit watering it...since this track is 75% sandy loam it
has been known to get a little slow toward the end of the day kind of like running on the beach at low tide....also you are right about the derby...picking the winner is no claim to fame...actually it's just one race among many...and as Jim Bradshaw used to say..the only thing that matters is when you walk out after the races you have more money in your pocket than when you came in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

atkinsrr · 05-01-2012, 06:45 PM

Mike B I rec'd your email about the synthesis program...my manual syn prog is in a 13 year old computer with the original hard drive...my computer guy has tried to transfer it to another computer and it wouldn't transfer so I can't help you...I rarely use it any more except for tracks like MTH Park that won't show all of the interior fractions on their turf sprints,,,then I have to make up my own fractions when I enter a paceline...but I would suggest using rdss...I have been more successful with that anyway...Best, Randy A.

04-18-2012, 10:27 AM	#32
trotman Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 259	Not just the Derby but horse racing in general I think of the line Sam Levenson wrote, "Our toaster has two settings: too soon or too late". Many trainers have tinkered with the way they want the jockey to ride the race and for that matter they the trainers tinkered with their training. Twenty horse field they don't want the rail or they don't want the outside. Then the aura of the tight turns at Churchill. So I think Levenson's line fits pretty well for the Derby. The best horse will win "The Run For The Roses" the most exciting two minutes in sport but for a handicapper a messy race to figure out. __________________ "Success consists of simply getting back up one more time than you fall"

04-23-2012, 06:52 PM	#36
Mrbill Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 135	VALM Top 5 for Kentucky Derby Good evening; I used the DRF past performances and entered them into VALM. Top 5 BL/BL horses are: 1) Daddy Nose Best 2) Dullahan 3) Bodemeister 4) Hansen 5) Take Charge Indy Hope everyone hits a home run on derby day. Mr Bill

04-30-2012, 05:01 PM	#38
trotman Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 259	atkinsrr here is something no one believes about the Derby but if the track is fast for the day forget about what has happened early in the day by Derby posttime the track crew has tried to make the track as neutral as possible and should the track be slow they will do the opposite to speed it up. So now we come to the race and as you eluded to the raw figures and I do believe you are eliminating the noise in the race using raw figs, in a race that most years is messy and hard to handicap this race is more historical in how it is run and the running style to get the roses. On raw everything Creative Cause, El Padrino and Hansen to me are the contenders with 7 horses on the bubble who could win based on trouble and trip. Ok so there we have it 10 of 20 going into the gate and still no definate winner, all I know is if I don't get any value in this once a year Run For The Roses my money could be at Screwed Up Downs where I have value and a chance, because picking the winner in the Derby is no claim to fame. __________________ "Success consists of simply getting back up one more time than you fall"

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04-17-2012, 07:53 PM	#31
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	I agree about the competitive field...I'm hoping for a favorite @ 5/1 or higher...also Pizzolla is correct about observing...with some races there are other factors that dominate besides the numbers and the Derby is usually one of those races. Prior trips @ CD very important and one factor I've always looked at is when a horse hasn't had a start as a 2yo...DOOMSDAY for him....BODEMEISTER??????? ENOUGH STAMINA TO GO 1 1/4 MILES ??????VERY QUESTIONABLE GOOD HCPG EVERYONE LET'S GET THIS ONE

04-18-2012, 11:50 PM	#33
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	Bodemeister ran away from the field in the Arkansas Derby and is now the Derby favorite on most lists of top three. Bodemeister is also main subject of discussion on most speed boards and even Beyer himself, had to review the race and adjust the original Beyer that he had given to the Arkansas Derby winner. Bodemeister now has the higest derby prep race Beyer number of 108. Dullahan won the Blue Grass in impressive fashion over the synthetic surface which favors closers and was given a 98 Beyer. After the finish line, the jockey had to pull up Dullahan shortly after the finish line as his mount was galloping out towards the outer rail. Hansen ran against the surface bias and ran as well as Bodemeister to lose to Dullahan by 1 1/4 length. Hansen and Bodemeister should make the pace in the Kentucky Derby along with Take Charge Indy who burned the 2nd fraction in the optional claiming race. So with two weeks to the Derby, here are my opinion of the main contenders: Bodemeister off the Arkansas Derby Dullahan off the Blue Grass Hansen off the Blue Grass Creative Cause off the Santa Anita Derby/BC Juvenile I'll Have Another off the Santa Anita Derby/RB Lewis Take Charge Indy off the Florida Derby/optional claiming Union Rags off the FOY/BC Juvenile Mark Valeski off the Risen Star El Padrino off the Risen Star/optional claiming Daddy Nose Best off the Sunland Derby Well, here's to the most exciting two minutes in horse racing.... Good Skills to all..

04-23-2012, 01:44 AM	#34
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	courtesy of Sammy the Sage from another board early pps of Kentucky Derby field from Bris http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/dby0505u.pdf or From Daily Racing Form http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/k...ntenders_0.pdf

04-23-2012, 06:16 PM	#35
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	Thx lone speed for the derby pp's...I will run them through my old hand entry synthesis program that "Doc" sent me in 1999 (I think) can't believe that old computer is still working....and I'll post the top 6 or 7 that it gives me...give me a few days Randy A.

04-23-2012, 08:59 PM	#37
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	Just finished with synthesis hand entry for the derby..as you know the program has adjusted ratings and raw ratings on bl/bl and all corollaries...I'll give you the top 7 of each. ATM (adjusted) BLBL 1. Daddy Nose Best 2. Dullahan 3. Bodemeister 4. Alpha 5. Hansen 6. Mark Valeski 7. Done Talking RAW BLBL 1. Creative Cause 2. I'll Have Another 3. Dullhan 4. Hansen 5. Daddy Nose Best 6. Done Talking 7. Take Charge Indy....I used only 9 Furlong pace lines and 2 of these horses ran in races with weak competition...Daddy Nose Best and Done Talking. I eliminated those 2 and explored all the other factors and graphs that this program has and Union Rags showed up in the top 5 in tot energy...this is a difficult program to use and haven't used it very often since I've had rdss so I'm better off waiting for my track master download for rdss this is going to be a tough derby and we will need to use some non numerical factors and some of Bradshaws intuitive powers to pick this one

04-30-2012, 06:42 PM	#39
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	Trotman..I've been to CD many times and I seen the crew watering the track early in the day but late in the card they quit watering it...since this track is 75% sandy loam it has been known to get a little slow toward the end of the day kind of like running on the beach at low tide....also you are right about the derby...picking the winner is no claim to fame...actually it's just one race among many...and as Jim Bradshaw used to say..the only thing that matters is when you walk out after the races you have more money in your pocket than when you came in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

05-01-2012, 06:45 PM	#40
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	Mike B I rec'd your email about the synthesis program...my manual syn prog is in a 13 year old computer with the original hard drive...my computer guy has tried to transfer it to another computer and it wouldn't transfer so I can't help you...I rarely use it any more except for tracks like MTH Park that won't show all of the interior fractions on their turf sprints,,,then I have to make up my own fractions when I enter a paceline...but I would suggest using rdss...I have been more successful with that anyway...Best, Randy A.