TAM 2nd - 4/5/17

[Jeebs]

Conditions: 7F $8k n3L for F&M, 3up.

My pacelines:



#1 - Line 1/Presser. + line last out and best perceptor. Early stick runner.
#2 - Line 2/Sustained. Both L1 and L2 are +, but L1 is a route. L2 is 4th best perceptor and the TPR screen for E/L sticks suggests the horse is a late runner. Its top perceptor races from awhile back trended early.
#3 - Line 2 (Extracted)/Early Presser. Its lone comparable race is unrateable. Both L1 and L2 are (+) races. I chose the best perceptor of those, which was L2. Late stick runner.
#4 - Line 2/Presser. L1 is a trouble line (off slow) and L2 is a + line and best perceptor. Late stick.
#5 - Line 4/Early. Strong + line in L1 and 2nd best perceptor suggests horse is in form. You can rate the 4th line which is its best race in the cycle. Can either lead or sit off the pace. Early sticks galore.
#6 - Ugly. I will let this one beat me.
#7 - Line 3/Sustained. L1 is a trouble line, L2 is wrong surface, and L3 has the best perceptor of the comparable races. Late.

[Jeebs]

Our "Energy" rankings go like this:



Given the TE gap between #7 and #2, I will eliminate #2 and #3 in today's matchup. We now have 4 horses (I like having 3-4 runners). First thing I notice is that the 2-1 top ML (#7) is at the bottom of the TE for the contenders. This appears to be a weak/vulnerable ML favorite. The 3-1 2nd ML (#4) has a 1.7 point edge over its closest rival on TE. We will take a look at the TPR screen matchup to see if #7's edge on TE is really powerful.



If TPR is to be believed, then #4 has a massive edge in this matchup - A 7 POINT gap separates #4 and #1.

Based on the Velocity readout, #4 has a massive F2 and F3 edge over everyone else. This leaves us to the BL/BL spread:



#4 is shaping up to be a strong lone Win bet - if the odds are right. If you wanted to diddle with exactas to extract better value, I can't see how you can go wrong with #1 and #5 under.

Good luck (and skill) to those involved here!

[Mitch44]

4-6-1-5
After My last post on pace line I saw this . Did this in about 10 minutes.
Mitch44

[Jeebs]

$10 Win #4

[Jeebs]

Mitch and The Monkey are smiling after this outcome.

I didn't post it, but I did play my suggested exacta (4/1-5) and had the 4/1 for $6. Turned a nice dime that race.

On to work. Good luck the rest of the way!

[Mitch44]

$16.00 $33.20 + $17.20
Pending Wagers: $0.00

COMPLETED: a5a75-1b6ba
TAM

#2
$0.50 Trifecta 4, 6, WT, 1, 4, 6, WT, 1, 4, 6 none $2.00
$0.00

- $2.00

COMPLETED: 6ae08-cb952
TAM

#2
$1 Exacta 6, WT, 1, 4 none $2.00
$0.00

- $2.00

COMPLETED: 5f592-1848b
TAM

#2
$2 Exacta 6, WT, 1, 4 none $4.00
$0.00

- $4.00



COMPLETED: 2eafd-b20b5
TAM

#2
$4 Exacta 4, WT, 1, 6 none $8.00
$33.20

+ $25.20
Had to rush getting a tri bet in & left out the 5 which was in my top 4. Next time.
Mitch44

[papajohn3times]

Well Thank you for the race info! I bet the 4 about 2 minutes to post and I was getting 2-1 my minimum price, Shocked a little to watch her win so easily and bet down to 1-1! Of well, any money is good money! Thanks for the race Jeebs!

[Jeebs]

No problem. It worked out to perfection that time. Too bad the $$$ knew the same thing that me and Mitch knew: that #4 is fast!

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeeps, Papa and Mitch

Sorry I am late to the race, I did my work up

Nice work guys !

My bets based on the ML would have been 4 and 7

Tampa race 2 7 furlongs CL 8 N3-L 3+F

Top 5 TPR Line 1
7,1,4,5,3

Fulcrum POR EPR 89 ( horse 5) 46.5

Horse 1 MoTown Presser 7 + races
Just won CL16N2-L This is a logical step up
into the N3-L ladder. Today starts a new form cycle. Line 1

Horse 2 Spring Me Sus. 3+races Just won at CL8
but for non winners of 2 life , The move up against
N3L and routing in line 1 is a positive now cuts back to 7
furlongs, I will use line 2

Horse 3 Zippy Early Only 1 + pace line , Its been stuck at the N3L for awhile, No recent form No line

Horse 4. Impeccable lady Sus 4 + lines , 5th race of current form cycle line 1 is a (+) "slow start" but the lpr is good
Line 2 is a recent + paceline and within the current form cycle.

Horse 5 Pom N Circumstances E-EP. Just won against CL8 N2-L
This is a logical move up, 5 + pacelines , Fulcrum horses
Line 1 ( will need to improve )

Horse 6 Red High Tops Presser Form issues Line 1 is a dud 0
race Line 2 is a + race but after a 220 day layoff win !
Did that race take too much out of her ? is she hurt again ?
Line 2 is her CL-2 win so today's she will try N3-L again
Line 2 with a ? mark.

Horse 7 Moonlight Salsa Sustained 3 + pacelines ,
I went to line 3. Line 1 is a (+) bumped start and the last race of that form cycle , Line 2 is a turf route. Line 3 is a recent + pacelaine at todays track against today's fulcrum


Hey Mitch

Is the LEX ( late Energy ) you are asking about what we used to see on the old classic programs

Thanks
Bill

[Lt1]

Well done gentlemen.
Tim G