Pattern recognition

[trotman]

My take is that if you don't have a odds line function in your program that time and time again you can trust, click pass this race. I have a hard time believing someone with a software program could hit this horse, and that is not a slight of what I use because nobody should be in this race period.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by polambi

This is the case of a horse that flew totally undetected under the public's radar, to win at the whopping price of $57.00 from a starting point of 8/1morning line.
I know that there are races that defy logic...and so on..but was this really one of those??? Was there any clue to the horse's potential, other than the fact that it was one of the 3 color coded horses in RDSS? In the BL/BL, that horse wasn't even near the top 5. However, I noticed that there is a 62% accumulation for this horse, in the newpace section, that I circled. What does that represent? Was that a red flag? All comments welcome.

Paul,

The 62% accumulation of Early Speed % for the Winner #1A simply means that that was the horse at which the accumulating ES% for the Early horses reached or exceeded 62%, the cutoff for determining Early horses in the NewPace methodology (just add the ES% numbers for the top 3 horses and you reach 62). No other significance than that.

It was Early Presser visually and the 2nd CR (Class Rating) horse and #1 APV, but it's hard for me to see how it could get an easy lead today (though it did). It did telegraph a good workout 16 days ago, but that's pretty slender evidence that it would improve off its best ever race (its 1st race), sufficient to contend with the best rated other horses today. Maybe in some kind of a superfecta box, if you regularly bet like that ...

Just one of those races, IMO. Next!

Ted

[polambi]

Ted, thanks for your analysis. The lesson for me in this one, is that whenever I'm making exotic bets, I have to include the # 1 APV horse, especially if that horse had a previous win.

[Bill V.]

Paul APV and CR are good tools
that and how the horse will run in todays match up


"The horse had all these positive angles:"

Every time somebody post the PP's of a longshot winner
we see "angles" in some varying code
which leads me to the conclusion that every horse in every race as some kind of angle combination

But which horse do these anglers bet?

I do still stand by my post that the 1A has 90 EPRs in its 2 sprint races
is sugnificant because the average EPR POR at Prx for sprint and routes is a 84-86 EPR
thats about
47' and 112.3 ish second calls

[polambi]

Bill V,
You're right about the EPR of 1A......and I also just realized that It has the best first fraction of the bunch. In fact, he also had a better second fraction than the favorite horse #5.
And 1A also had the best workout form pattern.
So...let's recap: second best CR, Top APV, best first fraction, best workout form. Therefore...it is not a win that defies logic! THis horse is the logical winner.