Would You Make This Bet - Why or Why Not?

[Because I Can Jim]

I do have a life. LOL But, these are the things I think about at 4:00am when I am cooking my wife's meals for the day and when I get a chance to post during my busy day, I do.

In the thread I started on "How To Make People Believe" (Click here to go to that post - http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9321 ) I wrote about how my misses wagered on three different horses to win in one race based on the odds on the tote board. What I didn't write is the rest of the story....

I had asked her why she was betting on so many horses to win. She replied that she wanted to get the winner in the race to which I countered that she should bet on all of the horses to win in the race. This way she will be sure to get the winner.

She laughed because she thought that I thought that she was a big fool. She said that if she did that, she would lose money. However,......

When I said that that was true if the favorite won the race, what would happen if that longshot going off at 30-1 won the race? The horse would pay $62 and wouldn't she make money even though she only wagered $14? She stopped laughing at me and her face showed consternation as it reflected that the question asked went against her immediate belief.

So, here is the scenario.... (Yes, these are the strange things I think about! LOL)

At 1 MTP the tote board shows the following odds for the horses (I'm keeping it simple but not out of the realm of reality):

H1 going off at 1-1
H2 going off at 2-1
H3 going off at 4-1
H4 going off at 6-1
H5 going off at 8-1
H6 going off at 10-1
H7 going off at 15-1

We have to make an assumption ( I can do this because this is theoretical and besides it is my scenario so I can make up whatever rules I please! LOL) that any monies wagered after you make your wager does not change the odds in any way.

The guestion is:

"Would you bet every horse in the race to win? Why or why not?"

Think about it.... and reply with your response!

You are wagering $14 on the race ($2 x 7 horses = $14).

7 horses in the race. The 4 horse is break even if it wins. 3 horses would be losers if they won. 3 horses would be winners if they won. That is 50%/50%. The amount you would win when the higher odds horses come in would be greater than the amount you lose when the lose odds horses come in so on 50% of the horses you are making more money and on 50% of the horses you are losing but not losing as much and can almost be thought of as a rebate because you are getting money back when they win instead of losing the full amount.

Would you make this bet? Why or why not?


Jim

[Appy]

It is NOT a 50/50 chance of winning, it is 4-3 against you winning.
My loss minimizing strategy would be not to bet on a loser.
You only get paid for one of the seven regardless of how many you bet.
If I couldn't confidently choose one of 3-7 for the win I might try to turn a low paying high probable winner into a more lucrative exotic play.

By the way Jim, I've really been enjoying your posts.

[Because I Can Jim]

Thanks for your kind words Appy.

By the way, for those reading this thread, it is a quirky brain teaser that I thought up that caused my wife to stop and think.

After all, if each horse wins once during a 7 race cycle because there is 7 horses running, the total amount wagered would be 7 (races) x 14 (2 on each of the 7 horses) = 98 total wagered.

If each horse won one time in that 7 race cycle (because there are 7 horses running and we would repeat the race 7 times comensurate with the number of horses), each horse would return:

H1 = 4
H2 = 6
H3 = 10
H4 = 14 (break even - 14 wagered and 14 returned if this horse won)
H5 = 18
H6 = 22
H7 = 32

Therefore, if each horse won 1 time in the 7 race cycle, the total return would be 106 on 98 wagered for a profit of $8.

Should my wife wager on this race only using the odds and betting $2 to win on each horse? Sounds logical, doesn't it? Why or why not?

Jim

[iRNA]

The three low odd horses will win 4 races out of 7 on average. Thus, one will lose $14 4 times out of 7 (or $56) and win around $8, on average, 3 times out of 7 (or $24).

[Bill V.]

This has got to be one of the strangest post I have seen
on Pace and Cap

This seems like .....

Hey every day I will bet the 4 horse .....
There is a 4 horse in every race today so that means
the 4 will win at least 1 race and IF it pays enough
I will make a profit

[iRNA]

Three low odds will win around 4 out of 7 in the long run. The remaining four (horses 4-7) will win 3 out of 7 in the long run. I'll let you figure out the rest

One's gotta lose the takeout if betting every horse in the long run.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

This has got to be one of the strangest post I have seen
on Pace and Cap

This seems like .....

Hey every day I will bet the 4 horse .....
There is a 4 horse in every race today so that means
the 4 will win at least 1 race and IF it pays enough
I will make a profit

Bill,

Don't put yourself at a disadvantage.

Year in and year out, post position #1 wins more races than any other post position.

By way of comparison, in a typical year post position #1 wins 600 more races than post position #4.

Betting post position #1 shortens your losing streaks and gives you 600 more chances of cashing that "big" ticket.

[Rverge]

i would not bet every horse in this race. as stated in videos i viewed in this forum, then threre is another race after this one. also my own personal odds line would suggest to bet on selections 4-1 or better IF it has the line selction readouts that will be in the top 4-5 contenders. then again i might consider using the excta as a win bet using the 2 top short priced selections(if contenders) and bet is as as a ex. box