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05-03-2009, 10:03 AM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Pace lines
A Key factor
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05-04-2009, 10:09 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Pace Lines
Bill,
Thanks for starting the thread on the captioned. As you stated, pace line selection IS "the heart and soul" of the methodology, however, in my opinion, the MOST ABUSED. As you can see, there have been no responses to this post and I wonder "why" since having read many of the posts on this site regarding line selection, people are all over the place. Quite naturally, you and Ted present the most logical approach. Now Richie, I want to tell you something. You have put up some posts that I think are just outstanding and I mean that sincerely, but in this case I'd like to speak directly to Bill and Ted. You set forth the "guidelines" for pace line selection, but I think there is more to it than those guidelines and I don't think the topic gets its' just attention. It is my intention to start an ongoing dialogue with you covering one point at a time, rather than bombard you with many scenarios all at once. My first point has to do with “old” lines. These old lines do not necessarily mean they are at the bottom of the horses PP’s. Before I go any further, for many years I have been downloading every track, every day from the same service you use for RDSS. The exceptions would be tracks like, Prescott Downs, Blue Bonnet, Will Rodgers and others such as those. I keep all of that information, plus the information I create from that downloaded information in data base files. What I can tell you is this. I just decided to look at this past year. Of all the horses whose last race was more than 90 days ago, only 4% won. Of all the horses whose last race was more than 60 days ago, only 8% won. (that includes the group previously mentioned) Of all the horses whose last race was more than 45 days ago, only 13% won. (again, this includes the two groups previously mentioned) So, if you are looking for horses to enter and the horse you are currently looking at doesn’t have a race in the past 45 days, is it wise to enter them off of any line, whether it is the last line, second line back or third line back, or even further back as I have seen in some cases? |
05-06-2009, 10:12 AM | #3 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Quote:
Just a note that a friend who keeps copious records and database tells me the figure for horses winning off more than 45 days back is actually 18%. 45 days and sooner the number is 82%. Class "A" and "B" tracks covered.
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
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05-06-2009, 10:55 AM | #4 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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The pace lines to select are those that best represent the horses ability against todays Projected Pace.
You can the narrow these down by distance, surface suitability, current form or whatever variable you think important Match Up these horses so you are left with the: Best Early Best Sustained Best Late You then can either let the computer Match Up tell you who is ranked 1,2, 3 and make you betting decisions from these readouts or make a call on how you think the race may be won. Using a creative approach or your intuition of what may be about to happen will probably help in finding those nicer priced horses. I prefer Jim Bradshaw' s Match Up concepts
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" |
05-06-2009, 11:27 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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The last 3 pacelines might tell you the horse Current Form, but not is Pace-Class abilities, for that you must go further down in the horse chart
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05-06-2009, 11:57 AM | #6 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 48
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Thread focus and purpose
Morning,
This is a subject that always interests me and I will glad to add my 2 cents to the discussion. I am not sure what the focus and purpose of the thread is; however, I would like to suggest that you include price as a factor and break out wins by odds ranges as a criterion when appropriate. If there is an agenda here please let me know so I don't contribute to thread drift. Buzz |
05-06-2009, 12:59 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bobcaygeon,On,Canada
Posts: 1,308
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FTL
Would you consider an older line for a horse that hadn't raced for more than 45 days if it had been working out regularly in the meantime? |
05-06-2009, 05:52 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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I have been learning Access, and trying to create a more efficient DB.
Here are the winner results at MNR for 5.5f with DSLR (Days since last Race). Is a small sample, but it does indicate that horse coming off a layoff less that 46 days do have an edge. The winner price is also include. |
05-06-2009, 05:54 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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oopsy forgot the file
Last edited by gl45; 08-02-2017 at 08:39 AM. |
05-06-2009, 06:21 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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Msr. Barbara,
ther are few workout patterns that trainers use to their advantage. 1) Last wk was 8 days from today's race. Better if was given 6 days from today's race 2) Wk between last race and 2rb, or between last race and today's race must meet SPF (seconds per furlong): 3f/4f=0:12 spf 5f=0:12.2 6f=0:12.33 7f=0:12.57 8f=0:12.75 3) 3 Wks back within 20 days form today's race. Better if 17 days from today's race. 4) From 4 works back the space between subsequent adjacent pairs of wks is about 8 days 5) in the last 75 days the horse must show 3 wks with an improvement is SPF (second per feet), from the 3rd. wks to the last. 6) last wk was at 6f, within 6 days from today's race 7) Last wk was at 3f within 4 days from today's race, or last wk was at 4f within 5 days from today's race These are the essentials, there are more workouts patterns, but the algos are a bit complicate to put them to words. Enjoy and use them at your discretion. |
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