Bris Class & Race Ratings

[Bill Lyster]

From 2/11 to 2/16 I reviewed this info from SA, TAM, PRX, AQ, GP and FG, in total 115 races where 64 in the top three ranks or 55+%.

Things to take note of:
Races with multiple maiden first time starters have been included. I would be wary of races with more than 2 FTS. If you do play look at the workout % of the last few works. AT GP yesterday in race one, Chad Brown and Christophe Clement had one FTS, both with great workout, Browns 81-89-82 and Clement 84 on turf, 94 on turf and 97 on dirt. They hadn't race so could not be rated, finished 1-2.

Take note of scratches and adjust rankings accordingly. Many times there are ties, so the top 3 ranks can easily have 5 horses in the top 3, which further distorts the percentages.

Horses from long layoffs often raced at much higher levels. Unless they performed well at or just above today's class of race, and have a string of works, the average class rating is bogus. Also it helps if they run today on their favorite surface. Last week a horse who had run in G1 races on dirt, long layoff, coming back on turf for the first time was top ranked with something like a 109 rating and never lifted a leg against horses whose rank was in the mid 90s. Easy to throw out, but your eyeballs woulda popped seeing that class rating advantage.

In places like AQ, GP and SA, even FG this is the time of year for many FTS. Last Sunday SA ran 5 maiden races, not all had FTS but some of the dull horses whose first races were unremarkable, came out of the blue to win.

Always cross reference the four factors rankings with the lines chosen for each horse. with top four ranks in all four it could alter your line selection.

This being said there are tracks that in this small sample had really good results. For instance, 16/20 races from TAM had top 3 average class ratings (ACL); PRX had 20/33 top 3. then come SA 15/27, GP 7/18, AQ 3/9, FG 2/8.

So best advice is to chart your favorite tracks to see how they run. Hmm, heard that along time ago.

Bill

[Lt1]

Hi Bill. When it comes to mdns races Bris doesn't rank FTS so they are always the last horses listed. I look to Profit line rankings when FTS are involved. Most of the the time I avoid MSW races with FTS. No need to deal with multi unknowns with so many tracks and races to look at.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Agreed Tim, I just included them for study integrity purposes.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by tom

I find RR and CR are very powerful, and even more predictive of winners than their SR. I consider a 2 point deficiency in RR to be very suspect, no matter what the SR>

Also, in the summary section of the Ultimate PPs, they have a column for ACL, average competive level of class.

In my current Aqu model, of 191 races, the ACL rating performed as follows:

#1 24% wins
#1,2 49% wins
#1,2,3 65% wins

I just looked at the DRF single file data files. They do not include RR, CR, ACL, jockey/trainer in 14 days and I think race shapes 1 and 2. Those are all in the Multicaps files, but the Multicaps files cost more. Just so everyone will know.

[Speed Figure]

The race pace shapes are included in the $1 files.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

The race pace shapes are included in the $1 files.

Thanks!

[stormbringer]

I have a Question ? I use the Bris Ultimate pps with comments. Where do you find the race ratings and where is profit line found i think the avg race rating is on Race summary page. (but i may be wrong about this to.) thanks for the help!

[Lt1]

Storm the cr % rr are found next to the time of race in the pps. The rr rating is right after the time and the cr rating right after the class of race. Profit line is found on the Twin Spire site. and the top 5 PL horses are listed on the entry screen of RDSS. You can also buy the PL Sheet $5] at Brisnet.com. You are correct the avg race rating is in the summary section of the pps.
Tim

[tom]

Bill, thanks for the study, always helpful!

As a point of clarification, in my model post, I only used playable races, and no MSW races at all. A few MC races, but not more than a handful.

btw, BRIS is offering free full card premium PPs for Oaklawn every race day, for antone interested. No class ratings, but Prime Power is included.

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks Tom