Bris Class & Race Ratings

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by tom

I find RR and CR are very powerful, and even more predictive of winners than their SR. I consider a 2 point deficiency in RR to be very suspect, no matter what the SR>

Also, in the summary section of the Ultimate PPs, they have a column for ACL, average competive level of class.

In my current Aqu model, of 191 races, the ACL rating performed as follows:

#1 24% wins
#1,2 49% wins
#1,2,3 65% wins

Tom (or anyone using the BRIS PPs) - are these ACL (Average Class) figs the same ones displayed on the TwinSpires public site (see image below)?

Regardless, do you think ACL performs any better than Prime Power? Or any better than closing odds? Your stats seem quite similar (or a bit worse?) than either of these 2 public ratings.

If YES to the above (per your stats), and if the numbers you used for ACL in your study are the same (rounded) as in the screenshot - that's very interesting ...





Or if anyone has today's Feb 26, 2023 Oaklawn BRIS PPs PDF file with these ACL figs and can email to me, I could answer myself.

Thanks in advance!

Ted

[Ted Craven]

While we're at Oaklawn, above race (default settings) -



Ted

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Storm the cr % rr are found next to the time of race in the pps. The rr rating is right after the time and the cr rating right after the class of race. Profit line is found on the Twin Spire site. and the top 5 PL horses are listed on the entry screen of RDSS. You can also buy the PL Sheet $5] at Brisnet.com. You are correct the avg race rating is in the summary section of the pps.
Tim

Tim (and everyone) - just a tip, RDSS Entries screen shows ALL the ProfitLine (and Prime Power) ratings for every horse and every other rating (not just Top 5) - IF you expand the screen:



Ted

[ranchwest]

Ted, I know that over the long haul some numbers perform better than others. However, I like to look at things like class from many different perspectives. As one example, I pay close attention to horses that are dropping into a claim for the first time or are in for the lowest tag. By looking at all of the class considerations, I feel more confident in the true class of the horse.

Because Prime Power is a composite rating, i lump it in with odds rather than class, but that's just my call.

For me, this also goes for other categories of consideration, such as speed and form. I look at multiple angles.

[Lt1]

Thanks Ted.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

While we're at Oaklawn, above race (default settings) -

Attachment 51050

Ted

Handicapped, but not bet. Finished my analysis and the race was running. Too bad Great minds...???!!!!



Ted I emailed the last three days Oaklawn Platinum pps last night

[tom]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Tom (or anyone using the BRIS PPs) - are these ACL (Average Class) figs the same ones displayed on the TwinSpires public site (see image below)?

Regardless, do you think ACL performs any better than Prime Power? Or any better than closing odds? Your stats seem quite similar (or a bit worse?) than either of these 2 public ratings.

If YES to the above (per your stats), and if the numbers you used for ACL in your study are the same (rounded) as in the screenshot - that's very interesting ...

Ted

Ted, I only model races I would bet, so samples are limited, but typically, I get PP as #1, ACL #2, and SR last race #3. But ACL sometimes is slightly best for some races, like SAR yurf sprints .

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Handicapped, but not bet. Finished my analysis and the race was running. Too bad Great minds...???!!!!

Ted I emailed the last three days Oaklawn Platinum pps last night

Bill, so far I didn't receive those (sadly, like several of our recent email exchanges). Not in Junk, not nowhere. Could you resend them, and also try my personal email (check your PMs).


Ted

[dlivery]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

While we're at Oaklawn, above race (default settings) -

Attachment 51050

Ted

Nice read out

What realy makes the time are the pace lines.

[Ted Craven]

A follow up - the Average Class Level (Average Class last Three) displayed in the BRIS PP Summary are the same figures displayed on the TwinSpires website (rounded to the nearest whole number). RDSS has access to these figures, just like Prime Power and Profit Line (the fig including the decimal, not just the rounded value).





I will try to find somewhere to put this into RDSS so others can study if it is of any additional value, even if situationally (e.g. certain class levels, surfaces, times of year, ages, etc). I'll take Tom's word that he has found it at least as valuable as Prime Power in some cases.

Thanks Tom for the tip!

And thanks to Tim G (Lt1) for sending me today's PARX BRIS PPs to check!

Ted