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Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion Phase III/MPH, Synergism, Energy, Kgen, Entropy, Thoromation, Quad-Rater, PaceLauncher, Synthesis, Validator, Val4, Speculator, etc ... |
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07-11-2006, 09:21 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Richie,Im wondering how the readouts would have been if you didnt project the 4 horse.By doing that you could have produced a false variegate.Jeff
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07-11-2006, 09:30 PM | #12 |
Administrator
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,643
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Tuff
Rich
I would say the program did its job The winner is top 3 raw TE the variegate is Early the program has it ranked third on paragon A looking at the final odds its a tough call between the 4 7 and 8 I need to redownload the philly card mine gets me a error message I will work the race myself too |
07-12-2006, 12:36 AM | #13 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 50
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Richie,
I would say the software did its job. The 8 jumps off the screen, go and reread FU #26, starting with page #4 DC/Pars where Doc goes in-depth in explaining TT & hidden energy. Based on the match-up of this race the 10 will hinder the 4's ability to run its Early race with success, if the 8 gets any trip at all he has the TT to defeat this field, look at his 2nd fraction figure of 32.91 and his good 3rd fraction, this race will not go Early, the speed should break down. BTW Great paceline picking, how about if you pick the pacelines and I interpret the readouts? |
07-12-2006, 06:42 AM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 212
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Richie:
It might be hard to answer the question of whether the program did its job. There are so many variables. However, the starting point for me is that the program always does its job. The better question concerns input. Looking at what actually happened (which I like to do to understand a race better) it seems the paceline for the #4 might be in question. It might be too fast at some fraction. That might have originated when adjustments were made before data entry. I always like to put everything in raw and see what it looks like after I look at my lines carefully to make sure I have used the most suitable lines available for the horse. Then, when there is an issue, I will look at the Energy manually adjusted numbers to see how bringing all of the total energy numbers even impacts the printouts. In this sample race I think the pace of the race made a difference because the 4 and 7 were evenly matched pressers leaving an opening for the closer. Any other ideas? Gary |
07-12-2006, 07:41 AM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Thank you!
Hi guys,
Thanx so much for all the feedback. I enttered the line for the 4 from it's original 7f dist and it had a FIVE point advantage total Energy. I knew that wasnt real so I sent it into selector. The resulting paceline is what I entered and that's what the readouts show. The # 10 I used a turf route ( last line) because a) had not shown any dirt races b) pace of that race was quick 22.4-47.1-113.3 My first instinct when I saw the variegate " early" was that it was totally wrong. Clue was when I see the 36% f1 Energy on the 10. **** sprinters usually cant win with that high a number. when I removed the 10 still showed early. that 4's projected line is the cause I see now. I honestly think the software DID it's job. it showed the 7 and 8 VERY close readout wise ( uxr). I have been taking 2 races a day and trying something I read in 1 of the earlier followup's that a friend of Howard outlined as his method. a) entering the pacelines into KGEN b) the first screen that pops up has a readout all the way on the right called " Kexdc". This is Howard's deceleration stuff at work ( whatever the hell it's doing it works! )with higherst number being best I keep the top 5 as my final contenders. I scratch everyone else and save the race file. then I open Energy and load the race. Easy. have worked a total of 8 races in four days. 7 winners 6 exactas 5 trifectas in the resulting contenders and some races the five are reduced to 4 sometimes even 3 because of NOTHING readout wise for a horse ( s). quite amazing to be honest in my opinion. of course I have NOT bet them because I wanted to test it figuring this can't work. it's too easy. Dope. 2 screen shots showing the 10 eliminated. thanx guys. appreciate the feedback man Rich
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
07-12-2006, 07:42 AM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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exdc shot
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
07-12-2006, 02:06 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,258
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I am a little late with my comments, but when I saw your screenshots several things jumped out at me which others including yourself have already referred to. The #10 with the 36+ in F1 is really high, and the F3 of course is 29+. Too much early and not enought late. Although 10 is a 0.00 Muv horse his other low rankings in the sort indicates he is a false 0.00 Muv horse. This is one of the few things I use the sort for.
As JoeB alluded to #8's better F2 readout is significant. Regardless of the Variegate predictor I don't see this race setting up as Early. The #8 with a MUV over 3 generally would be cause for concern, but as Gary said the 4 and 7 are close in Presser ability. This would be one of the times that the Match-Up would set up for a horse of this type. I would have to say you and Energy did a very good job. You got the horses down to 3 and they all came in. The only other comment is with a horse such as #4 when they look that good on all the readouts they usually don't win for me. |
07-12-2006, 03:59 PM | #18 |
Maiden
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 3
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Houndog !!!!!!!!!!! Im on here this is Joe Kidd Goo boulavard loubnge
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07-12-2006, 04:08 PM | #19 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,258
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Welcome Aboard!
Quote:
I will check with you this weekend. |
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07-12-2006, 04:41 PM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Hat thought KXEDC was one of the most powerful indicators.
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