My RDSS Experience!

[Pat C.]

I first want to thank all at Pace and Cap for welcoming me to this great community. I started out here by using the Matchup as taught by the Hat and Richie's posts, tapes and videos. It was a revelation on how races run and I had more success using it than I ever had with mainstream handicapping methods. However I was still very inconsistent in my ROI. I then worked my way through the manuals and followups to learn the Sartin Methodology.

I have been using RDSS for about three weeks at the local OTB with results that have amazed me. I know I have much to learn and I need much more practice to really use the program to it's full potential, but I have only had one losing session (the second session) since I started. That was a result of my not passing races that I should have and making stupid exotic bets. After that session, my record keeping improved, particularly on my betting. Maybe I should not have started with making actual money bets, but I work better under pressure and it keeps me serious about improving my choices.

Paceline selection seems to be my biggest problem. I have the best luck using the program's top preceptor line with due consideration given to current form if the line is not recent. When I try to stay with one of the latest three lines, my success drops. Any advice???

I have found that making a Brohamer type track profile helps me with betting choices, but with the large variety of tracks available at the OTB, I can't keep up. On my betting records I have a place for noting the race distance, surface and running style of the winner. This is good quick reference for subsequent races. Any other suggestions??

The transition from paper PPs to computer screen has been a challenge but the quick access to tandems, fractions, adjustments and the rest has made the effort much more pleasant.

Sorry, I don't mean to ramble. Just want to say thanks for allowing me to join you all. I'm hooked!

Pat C.

[BillN]

Originally Posted by Maxspa

PlainObill,
Welcome to the RDSS board! I know you have some excellent, well researched handicapping ideas and that you respect handicapping as the tremendous challenge that it is! Good luck with he software and I hope you continue to share your ideas!
Maxspa

You should be in the state department Maxspa - you are kind and diplomatic. I admit to being a crusty old sailor with not much tact. Your analysis of various handicapping programs has provided me with much interesting and thought provoking reading.

What I am thinking about RDSS: This is, bar none, the best contender selection program/means I have used. With RDSS the way the information is presented, the various screens, etc., helps bring things together quickly and allows me to concentrate on bet structuring.

In the last few years I've been trying to intergrate speed/pace with database info and weighting the various factors mentally is tough going. Juggling all this data I'd waffle a lot of times right up to posttime then make hurried betting decisions.

I also have a bad habit of betting against strong favorites with horses I think have some hidden/or underbet factor(s) going for it. Nice to be able to look at the screen and say: This favorite is the real deal, either bet him/wheel him or move on.

I'm going to have a lot of questions later but for now I'm just absorbing the essence of the program.

[Vinnie]

Hello Max:

Just wanted to tell you that I am thrilled that you are over here on the board at Pace and Cap.

I have always thoroughly enjoyed your keen insight and reviews of many programs over at the PA board. I have never before written to you, but, I just wanted you to know that I have always enjoyed reading essentially any and all of your past posts.

"YOU ARE THE MAN MAX"!

Good Skill and again Welcome Aboard.

Vinnie

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Pat C.

Paceline selection seems to be my biggest problem. I have the best luck using the program's top preceptor line with due consideration given to current form if the line is not recent. When I try to stay with one of the latest three lines, my success drops. Any advice???
Pat C.

Hi Pat
You have answered your own question above!

LOSE the best of last 3 as line selection criteria. It ain't working for you.

USE your "top preceptor line with due consideration given to current form if the line is not recent" as your jumping off point for the race being looked at. It's working for you man. Don't try to "fix it"

Big welcome to Bill N and all the new "shooters" here at P&C.

EVERYONE trying RDSS has access to free database of 1 weeks worth of races to get your hands on the package. Just reiterating this for any potential new users reading this ok? You can get a pretty full understanding/working knowledge of RDSS without laying out any cash.

Then if you wish you can access the Pace and Cap library for all the reading/tips you might want to pick up from Pirco's finest pros on topics from contender and paceline selection to the psychological part of the game that is so important to long term success.

Once again NO charge just a commitment of time and study.

Bill V has set up a beautiful site based on a long time dream of his and Ted C is rocking and rolling getting the software together. I am glad to help them and you any way I can.

Welcome all!

[Maxspa]

Zaf,
Good to hear you are still "Capping"!!! It has been awhile but I still remember your handicapping incites a couple of years ago at Saratoga!
John Martino,who flew to Tampa Downs this winter, was at the table.
I sure hope you continue to share your ideas with us on the board, because you can break down a race as good as anyone! Even when Suff
was around!
Hope to see you in TOGA country!
Maxspa

[Ted Craven]

Welcome to Pat C, Max, BillN, Patrick, Zaf, well shoot - welcome to everyone!

There seems to be a bit of new interest in Doc's work, and I wish everyone trying to get up to speed the very best, but also encouragement for persistence and patience.

There's no substitute for doing your own work and answering your own questions - even if someone else has answered a similar question for themselves: it just doesn't feel the same if someone else says, for example, 'best of the last 3 comparable pacelines, use the best Perceptor or Total Energy' versus, say, 'use best Perceptor from entire PPs if horse is in form today'. Although there will be a lot of overlap between these two example approaches to paceline selection, if you take a random 100 races (and depending on wager selection or race passing strategy), you may find that one method hits rather more or less than the other, and at different average mutuels, giving different resulting ROI, hitting and missing different longshots, etc, etc.

If you choose one consistent approach and it produces a profit over time because you studied the nuances of your method, took the lumps, etc - but most importantly, you came to own that approach, not just accept what someone else worked to own for themselves, then your confidence will be higher, and you will feel like gradually betting more. It is grunt work, but if you did actually take 100 races and work them out each way (using the above 2 example alternatives), then you will know which way works best for you.

Of course, I think it's true that the bottom line ROI is much more affected by which wagers to make from any consistent paceline selection. So after getting comfortable with line selection, next focus on wagering mechanics like minimum acceptable odds for each of your top (say) 3 contenders (either minimums for 1 horse win bets, or net minimums for multi-horse win bets); identifying the likely 'counter-energy' horse for Place or Exacta wagers; developing a rigourous PASSing strategy (or exacta-as-win bet strategy). All the foregoing and many more wagering-related mechanics will probably have a far greater impact on profits than the nuances of paceline selection, though of course all of it is what we need to master.

Someone wrote to me (about the Methodology in general, but it applies to Validator, Speculator and RDSS, and surely older tools) that the programs were "designed by geniuses to be used by idiots". I like to think of myself somewhere around the middle/latter range of that spectrum - but really, the tools make life simple. The adjustments are powerful, the aggregate readouts are powerful: Total Energy, Bottom Line, Early/Late difference, VDC are powerful ideas and are the simplified fruits of a 25+ year research by Doc and crew. Record how the winner looked in the readouts, and the Place horse from a consistent line selection strategy. Then use those records to give you confidence to bet on horses who may look non-obvious or who by 'traditional' analysis look dubious.

Just for the record (and in case anyone is wondering), I am dying for (and working on ) tools to help me with all this bloody record keeping and feedback-loop. Of course there are spreadsheets (electronic or paper) to record it all and (laboriously) copy it down from various sources, and we do what we have to (or don't) , but RDSS will be close to Version 1.0 when my wager selections, my results, my models, my profit & loss show up in about 2 or 3 mouse clicks. After that, I'll take a few weeks off.

Anyway, again, welcome to everyone. A reminder and invitation: you are all most welcomed to post up a race and ask for suggestions how it might best be analysed or wagered. This will help us all learn!

Ted

[Maxspa]

Vinnie,
Thanks for the positive comments! Those reports were always honest from my perspective. This board is very helpful, cooperative and gives a variety of ideas to help individuals who need clarification. I remember Sartin software in the 90's and it has come a long way since then. One of the finest developments that Ted has made is the presentation of the data. Color coded so it's easy to assimilate plus the window placement of important information in a sequential manner is terrific.
Hope to meet you in Saratoga and read your comments on the board.
Maxspa

[So Cal Al]

TED
Speaking of ROI........................most of my betting is done through Youbet.com. which has just set up something called "My ROI". Basically. it takes all my wagers for a selected period of time and does a ROI based upon a myriad of different factors, including track, surface, class, wager type. etc. In effect, it will be doing all my record keeping (and more) for me. I thought that yo.u and the other forum members should be given a heads up.
Al

[Ted Craven]

Al,

I have seen pictures of Youbet's My ROI tool and it is intriguing, but alas I cannot have an account with Youbet (or TwinSpires) - denied to Canadians. I do have Premier Turf Club, BetAmerica and HPI wagering accounts.

I would LOVE to have access to a Youbet (and TwinSpires) account It would definitely have an effect on RDSS' capabilities...

Ted

[Maxspa]

All,
After the first week at Belmont, It was necessary to make some changes in paceline selections. Week 2 was handicapped with the new paceline selection process and it was not profitable. In fact Friday and Saturday
selections contained 0fers! This left me discouraged somewhat with the feeling that this week was really lousy until I checked the weekly totals.
They were not great! However, they were better than the first week!
Psychologically because of the Friday + Saturday Ofers, if I hadn't kept records, I would have thought just the opposite would have been the case!
More important, I know that the new paceline selection process should be kept for additional testing.
PATIENCE is CRUCIAL to developing a winning approach! I hope this post helps others as well.
Maxspa