Which Screens to Use?

[Ted Craven]

A newer Spec160 user writes:

'With Validator I found that LS was the most predictive factor. Earlier versions of Spec I used the CBL screen. With Spec160 I am not sure what screen I should be using. Maybe the BL/BL screen?? What do you think?'

I think that different factors apply to different races, though some have near universal utility. Presuming using a regular, consistent paceline selection procedure, Total Energy should show the winner in the Top 5 a high percentage of the time, though not enough to succeed with.

In general, focusing on the Perceptor I ranking or the BL/BL rankings will get you the prime contenders within the Top 3 or 4, then you can determine if other rankings (screens) tell you to eliminate one of those high rated or include another lower rated contender. If your record of certain track/distances show you that surplus Early energy Difference (E/L screen) trumps Total Energy (e.g. often Aqueduct Inner sprints, or Woodbine sprints, but check your own records), investigate the chances of such ranked horses and seek corrollaries.

In a Turf route, I'd want to see good rankings from LPR and HID (from Turf lines) and correlate that with similar rankings from TPP and maybe L/EP. If you keep some records of different races you handicap, you will start to see which factors always show up in certain types of races, at certain tracks.

Ted