Track Profiles

[DaveEdwards]

First off, this isn't me starting a thread to teach anybody anything!

More really I was hoping to tease out advice from others who have more experience in this area than I.

Now first of all, I'm good with the data collection involved in setting up a track profile. Clearly data collection is one thing, but the key here obviously is being able to apply the current reality of a racing surface to contender selection.

Selecting contenders based on running style when the winners are all coming from within 2 lengths of the lead at the 1st & 2nd calls is one thing, but what about when the track then changes to suit sustained runners?

Can anyone who maintains a profile offer advice on how to deal with winners of this type? Say winners are coming from anything up to 8 lengths behind, but the PPs of the horses don't give a clear indication of horses that fit the profile exactly. Do you give more latitude to horses that are generally of the preferred running type?
Also, if there are any Follow Up articles that anyone is aware of dealing with this that would be brilliant too.

Thanks all.

[Bill V.]

Hi Dave

There are a few mentions of profiles in the follow ups
The common thing you will read and I strongly advice is
less is better
Here is how I set up my profile
I do it all in a old fashion $1.00 note book
Like Doc says it takes me about 10 minutes a day
All I enter is the date race number CR, field size and the position and
beaten length's for the first fraction and second call
This shows me very clearly where the winners need to be no matter
what their energy or running style says in their PP's
I get this information from the result charts

It won't take long doing just this little task
for you to know were your winners are coming from at your track.

I could just stop there, outside of being more precise with the class issue,
For my own skill level I do one extra entry I also do a raw EPR and LPR (FFR ) for the winning horse.
The EPR and FFR difference helps me see when the track might be starting to favor horses with stronger late energy.
and also tells me how close those horses need to be
compared to the horses with the best 2nd call times

hope this starts you on the road to better understanding of the horses at your track

[Bill V.]

Dave
I the example I posted above the BL at the second call is 4.25
believe it or not this is the BIGGEST deficit a horse has overcome
in the last 25 route races at the distance of 1 mile and 1 mile 70 yards
at my track, the average BL at the second call for my last 25 races is
3/4 of a length !
So even when I consider a Sus Presser or Sustained horse
I know its better be very close to the E and EP and P horses at the
second call

Bill

[DaveEdwards]

Brilliant thinking. I hadn't thought about including these at all, but as you rightly say just keeping the raw figures will should you with any potential shift in the surface as a day's racing progresses.

I'm sure the formulas are in MPH. Will do some bedtime reading now!

As a little aside I see your clocks have gone forward for the summer two weeks earlier than us which lets me take a look at Penn National from 10pm instead of the usual 11pm. Penn is definitely my favourite.

[Bill V.]

Dave
to answer your question about horses beaten by over 8 BL !
I just don't know

Why because they hardly ever win at the tracks I profile

I have profiles for 2 tracks, Both are eastern tracks so they have not started turf races yet

my profile has no maiden races

Track A has in the last 40 sprints # of winners beyond 8 BL = 0
Ave BL = 1.61
Track A has in the last 25 routes # of winners beyond 8 BL = 0
Ave BL = .25!
Track B has in the last 40 sprints # of winners beyond 8 BL = 2
Ave Bl 2.23
Track B has in the last 12 routes # of winners beyond 8 BL = 0
Ave Bl = .5