"Hold or Fold?" - FL Race 8 - 10/2/17

[Jeebs]

Randomly combing through some PP's and found a strong minor sprint stake at the little track in Western NY known as "The Thumb".

FL1002 8 6.0 D ST 3+F $50,000 RC=96 122 lbs  TMPAR=111.09 4:19PM

              Arctic Queen S. - FOR FILLIES AND MARES
              THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.  FOALED IN
              NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW
              YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY.  No nomination
              fee.  $200 to pass the entry box and to
              start.  To be divided 60% to the winner,
              20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to
              fourth  2% to fifth & 1% sixth, seventh
              and eighth. Weight: Three Year Olds 122
              lbs Older 124 lbs; Non-Winners of

     EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 8-9)

[Jeebs]

Here are PP's. Look for Monday, October 2nd, Finger Lakes Race 8:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

[Jeebs]

Here are my lines. BLT/C with user changes made if necessary.

#1 - Line 2/Early
#2 - Line 1/EP
#3 - Line 4/EP
#4 - Line 1/Early
#5 - Line 7/Early
#6 - Line 2/Presser
#7 - Line 2/EP
#8 - Line 1/EP
#9 - Line 2/Presser
#10 - Line 4/Presser
#11 - Line 1/Presser

     FL1002 8 6.0 D ST 3+F $50,000 RC=96 122 lbs  TMPAR=111.09 4:19PM

                         TRACK MASTER PACELINES (VART)
NO PN NAME    1STC  2NDC  FINC    BL1    BL2    BLS    BLF  SR  TV  COND
 1  1 VICTO2  22.8  45.5 104.8  1-1.0  1-2.0  1-2.5  1-1.3  93   1   FT
 2  2 BUSTI1  22.7  45.6 110.4  3-1.1  3-1.1  3-1.6  3-4.3  96  -9   FT
 3  3 TOUGH4  22.4  46.4 106.1  1-0.5  1-1.0  1-2.0  1-4.3  80   3   FT
 4  4 RIP L1  22.7  46.4 111.9  1-1.0  1-0.5  3-3.5  4-6.8  71   2   FT
 5  5 PACHA7  22.4  45.4 111.9  2-1.0  2-1.0  4-2.6  5-7.5  68   5   FT
 6  6 BROOK2  22.7  45.6 110.4  6-4.1  6-2.7  4-2.1  2-3.5  98  -9   FT
 7  7 BEE N2  22.9  46.0 118.5  4-1.6  4-2.6  1-2.5  1-4.5  88  -2   FT
 8  8 SHE'S1  22.2  45.3 110.6  5-2.2  3-2.0  3-3.5  3-4.0 103 -10   FT
 9  9 SLAM 2  22.7  45.6 110.4  5-2.6  5-2.2  2-1.5  4-4.8  95  -9   FT
10 10 WONDE4  23.4  46.2 123.5  4-1.6  3-2.0  5-0.8  3-3.8  82  12   FT
11 11 LEMME1  22.7  45.6 110.4  1-1.0  1-1.0  1-1.5  1-3.5 105  -9   FT




                           PACELINE DATA (ADJUSTED)
 # PN NAME LdNT 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR  MAN RC TRKDISTSE

 1  1 VICTO2    22.0  44.8 110.1  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  85       94 SAR 5.5D
 2  2 BUSTI1    22.4  45.1 109.5  1.10  1.10  1.60  4.30  84       90 FL  6.0D
 3  3 TOUGH4    21.4  45.5 110.9  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  81       73 FL  5.5D
 4  4 RIP L1    22.2  45.6 110.6  0.00  0.00  3.50  6.80  76       84 FL  6.0D
 5  5 PACHA7    21.9  44.7 110.7  1.00  1.00  2.60  7.50  75       87 FL  6.0D
 6  6 BROOK2    22.4  45.1 109.5  4.10  2.70  2.10  3.50  85       90 FL  6.0D
 7  7 BEE N2    22.3  45.1 110.8  1.60  2.60  0.00  0.00  82       87 AQU 6.5D
 8  8 SHE'S1    21.6  44.4 109.1  2.20  2.00  3.50  4.00  86       98 PRX 6.0D
 9  9 SLAM 2    22.4  45.1 109.5  2.60  2.20  1.50  4.80  84       90 FL  6.0D
10 10 WONDE4    22.7  45.3 109.7  1.60  2.00  0.80  3.80  83       96 KEE 7.0D
11 11 LEMME1    22.4  45.1 109.5  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  88       90 FL  6.0D

[Jeebs]

#11 looks the fastest visual "Early", and the other earlies will be hard pressed to catch.

     FL1002 8 6.0 D ST 3+F $50,000 RC=96 122 lbs  TMPAR=111.09 4:19PM
                          BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE

HIDE#  PNcNAME Ld   SR  BAL    LS TIE ODDS   TRKDISTS  M/L DAYS AGE

    6  11 LEMME1    88    4  23.5     EVEN   FL  6.0D  5/1   28   6   90   7

    4   8 SHE'S1    86    5  17.5      5-2   PRX 6.0D  3/1   15   4   98   0

    3   6 BROOK2    85    6  16.3      3-1   FL  6.0D 15/1   16   4   90   7

    1   1 VICTO2    85    7  13.8   *  4-1   SAR 5.5D  6/1   41   4   94   1

    2   2 BUSTI1    84    7  13.8   *  4-1   FL  6.0D  7/2   28   4   90   7

    5   9 SLAM 2    84    8  12.3      9-2   FL  6.0D 10/1   16   5   90   7

                     SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS
                  ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐          │    PRIM     │  SUPP   │
                  │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│          │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│T│E│T│T│
┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│O│N│S│P│
│#│PNcNAME Ld │ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│T│T│ │P│
├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤
│1│ 1 VICTO2  │ 85│ 7│1│3│26│4│24│5││3│6│6││EAR│ 0.9││1│6│3│5│6│3│2│5│3│6│4│6│
│2│ 2 BUSTI1  │ 84│ 7│6│5│26│4│21│4││4│4│5││E/P│ 4.2││3│4│5│3│4│4│3│4│5│3│5│4│
│3│ 6 BROOK2  │ 85│ 6│2│4│22│3│15│3││6│3│2││PRE│ 5.8││5│2│4│1│1│5│4│3│4│2│3│3│
│4│ 8 SHE'S1  │ 86│ 5│3│2│20│2│12│2││1│2│3││E/P│    ││1│5│2│4│5│2│1│2│2│4│2│2│
│5│ 9 SLAM 2  │ 84│ 8│4│6│29│5│28│6││5│5│4││PRE│ 5.3││4│3│6│2│3│6│5│6│6│5│6│5│
│6│11 LEMME1  │ 88│ 4│5│1│11│1│ 5│1││2│1│1││PRE│ 3.0││2│1│1│3│2│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│
└─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘

[Jeebs]

To clarify on my ESP: those are Energy Run Styles based on the Median% of the lines that I selected. #11, who I labeled as a visual "Early" horse, has a Median% output of presser.

[raceman5]

Interesting race. I like the 8 and 10 because they seem to like running against fast pace races. The 1 bothers me he looks like the speed of the speed. He can run quarters in 21.4 and 21.2, so he may get the jump on the rest of the speed. Breaking from the 1 hole the jock has no choice but to gun him.


Bob