I'm Dying at Belmont - Pace and Cap

froggy · 05-11-2008, 02:18 PM

Ted,

I have almost not been able to get a winner at Belmont.
The results with RDSS have less than satisfactory.
This is the first race today.
The obvious winner is not included as a contender and as such was not exported.
When I enter the raw pace lines into SYN II the winner has come up as one of the top two in practically every race since the start of the meet.
This is not just an occasional race but a lot of races.
Is there something different or wrong with the way TM generates their variants?
Where I am now is back to hand entry the night before using a program that generates it's own internal variant.
Notice where the top 4 FW horses are in the finish from each program.

Froggy

Profiler8 · 05-11-2008, 04:45 PM

Hi Froggy,

I have not good results as well, but the track was often sloppy these days.
Today, I picked a 14/1 winner at Belmont. Proably the weather is now better.
I got many big winners at Churchill last weekend. Sometimes there are cold streaks.

Your method is very good.

Thanks...

Greetings
Tim

shoeless · 05-11-2008, 05:36 PM

As Bob Purdy says dont compare programs

RichieP · 05-11-2008, 05:53 PM

Live Frog Live!

froggy · 05-11-2008, 06:42 PM

I'm wasn't trying to compare them.
I was just trying to find out what I was doing wrong.
Now I don't think I was doing anything wrong except having my faith in RDSS at Belmont.
Right now I defy anybody to get 6 out of 10 winners at Belmont using only RDSS without cherry picking the races.
At Aqu. it didn't matter what kind of race or surface or track condition.
I was clicking along at 5 to 7 wins a day betting every race that had pace lines using RDSS to select the contenders
and Energy to sort things out.
The first day at Belmont everything ran into a brick wall with only 2 winners.
The second and third days were just about as bad.
Derby Day I hit 3 $20 + bombs and that helped.
Yesterday after 5 straight losses I packed up and came home and spent until 2am trying to get the winners in the races I lost to no avail.
Then I figured that maybe something is out of sync with how TM is figuring their variants.
Thats when I went to and old friend "Syn II" that figures its own variants.
And low and behold it had the winner practically every time in every race and the top 3 or 4 finishers were usually in the top 5 FW.
I learned at an early age that the top 4 FW has the winner 68% of the time.
I don't like to spend my time comparing one program to another.
This is not a hobby for me.
I want to spend as little time as possible punching a keyboard.
I need to be at the betting window and I don't need to be using a program that has a problem that is at this time costing me costing me money.
Since Belmont opened I have not only been in fact out of work but I have been paying the race book cash money for the privilege
Trackmaster has it's own proprietary variants.
I have always been uncomfortable using something other than original Sartin methodology and Trackmaster isn't Sartin methodology.
I am not a purist just a person that needs to win.
In the book I sit next to a guy that is using "The Capper" with good results.
He gets an ROI of $1.20 and he lets the computer do the work. Every night he just turns it on and punches a few keys and 4 hours later he has his plays.
It's just like working a toaster.
Friday he had a $79 horse at Belmont and then there were 8 high percentage
spot plays,but none of them won.
If I could get my same ROI using that program I would start tomorrow.
I like cashing tickets every day and going home a winner and I haven't felt that the past ten days.

Froggy

shoeless · 05-11-2008, 08:10 PM

Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Bullhead City Az
Posts: 766 I'm Dying at Belmont

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ted,

I have almost not been able to get a winner at Belmont.
The results with RDSS have less than satisfactory.
This is the first race today.
The obvious winner is not included as a contender and as such was not exported.
When I enter the raw pace lines into SYN II the winner has come up as one of the top two in practically every race since the start of the meet.
This is not just an occasional race but a lot of races.

Froggy,Sounds like your comparing to me but hey everyone has their own opinion.I hope you get things straightened out.Shoe

froggy · 05-11-2008, 08:34 PM

Shoe,

I certainly didn't start out that way.
And maybe I am comparing.
But If I hadn't I would've had to quit and ask my son for a job as a greeter at Walmart.
At least now I know how to work around the problem and keep my head above water.

I've always enjoyed your posts as they get right to the point.
Good luck to you in your own handicapping.

Froggy

shoeless · 05-11-2008, 08:59 PM

Froggy,Thanks.I screwed up myself today in the 11th at Woodbine.I had the winner on top at 4-1 and had it down to 4 horses to run 2nd it was a 14 horse field.I threw out the 4 who was 50-1 because of the odds needless to say he ran 2nd for a 277.00 ex.Come to think of it that was a pretty low paying exacta somebody was in on it.I know this isnt RDSS related but thought I would reply.

chris · 05-11-2008, 09:20 PM

It's been tricky; the best I've been able to do is stay afloat. Saturday cashed one ticket - it happens. Today I took a different tack. Perused the form and selected two races to handicap, just two - it was time to re-tool.

Bet them both in advance, and then shut down for the day. One came in at 14-1 and the other tapped out. There's something liberating about focussing on only two races. By not spreading my bets over four or five races, all monies were channeled into these two, so I put myself in a position to win some significant change. Rdss had the 14-1 horse on top, in fact, it had the trifecta in order on BL/Bl, bet a trifecta partial wheel, and a straight $10.00 Triefecta as well, both came in. Only bet one horse to win, he appeared to be the only true overlay.

Tracks go through these cycles, and it appears Belmont's not imune. I think it's an aberrant situation and believe things will soon settle down. The reason I bet the New York tracks is because these cycles are not contagious and tend to be short-lived, however this one appears to be a more resistant strain.

Here's to better days at Belmont,
Chris

partsnut · 05-11-2008, 10:03 PM

Froggy,

Belmont is a unique track that has it's own profile.
You might want to look for horses that are close at the 2nd call that have a good finishing kick.

The software that you use or for that matter most softwares do not have suitable profiling capabilities. If you don't keep a track profile by distance, I suggest that you do. You will be amazed at what it will tell you.

Belmont is considered to be a 1.1 track which relates to sustained.

05-11-2008, 02:18 PM	#1
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	I'm Dying at Belmont Ted, I have almost not been able to get a winner at Belmont. The results with RDSS have less than satisfactory. This is the first race today. The obvious winner is not included as a contender and as such was not exported. When I enter the raw pace lines into SYN II the winner has come up as one of the top two in practically every race since the start of the meet. This is not just an occasional race but a lot of races. Is there something different or wrong with the way TM generates their variants? Where I am now is back to hand entry the night before using a program that generates it's own internal variant. Notice where the top 4 FW horses are in the finish from each program. Froggy Attached Images Last edited by froggy; 05-11-2008 at 02:23 PM.

05-11-2008, 06:42 PM	#5
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	Shoe, I'm wasn't trying to compare them. I was just trying to find out what I was doing wrong. Now I don't think I was doing anything wrong except having my faith in RDSS at Belmont. Right now I defy anybody to get 6 out of 10 winners at Belmont using only RDSS without cherry picking the races. At Aqu. it didn't matter what kind of race or surface or track condition. I was clicking along at 5 to 7 wins a day betting every race that had pace lines using RDSS to select the contenders and Energy to sort things out. The first day at Belmont everything ran into a brick wall with only 2 winners. The second and third days were just about as bad. Derby Day I hit 3 $20 + bombs and that helped. Yesterday after 5 straight losses I packed up and came home and spent until 2am trying to get the winners in the races I lost to no avail. Then I figured that maybe something is out of sync with how TM is figuring their variants. Thats when I went to and old friend "Syn II" that figures its own variants. And low and behold it had the winner practically every time in every race and the top 3 or 4 finishers were usually in the top 5 FW. I learned at an early age that the top 4 FW has the winner 68% of the time. I don't like to spend my time comparing one program to another. This is not a hobby for me. I want to spend as little time as possible punching a keyboard. I need to be at the betting window and I don't need to be using a program that has a problem that is at this time costing me costing me money. Since Belmont opened I have not only been in fact out of work but I have been paying the race book cash money for the privilege Trackmaster has it's own proprietary variants. I have always been uncomfortable using something other than original Sartin methodology and Trackmaster isn't Sartin methodology. I am not a purist just a person that needs to win. In the book I sit next to a guy that is using "The Capper" with good results. He gets an ROI of $1.20 and he lets the computer do the work. Every night he just turns it on and punches a few keys and 4 hours later he has his plays. It's just like working a toaster. Friday he had a $79 horse at Belmont and then there were 8 high percentage spot plays,but none of them won. If I could get my same ROI using that program I would start tomorrow. I like cashing tickets every day and going home a winner and I haven't felt that the past ten days. Froggy Last edited by froggy; 05-11-2008 at 06:46 PM.

05-11-2008, 09:20 PM	#9
chris Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Richfield, MN Posts: 182	Belmont's been a rough patch! lately! It's been tricky; the best I've been able to do is stay afloat. Saturday cashed one ticket - it happens. Today I took a different tack. Perused the form and selected two races to handicap, just two - it was time to re-tool. Bet them both in advance, and then shut down for the day. One came in at 14-1 and the other tapped out. There's something liberating about focussing on only two races. By not spreading my bets over four or five races, all monies were channeled into these two, so I put myself in a position to win some significant change. Rdss had the 14-1 horse on top, in fact, it had the trifecta in order on BL/Bl, bet a trifecta partial wheel, and a straight $10.00 Triefecta as well, both came in. Only bet one horse to win, he appeared to be the only true overlay. Tracks go through these cycles, and it appears Belmont's not imune. I think it's an aberrant situation and believe things will soon settle down. The reason I bet the New York tracks is because these cycles are not contagious and tend to be short-lived, however this one appears to be a more resistant strain. Here's to better days at Belmont, Chris

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05-11-2008, 04:45 PM	#2
Profiler8 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Germany Posts: 148	Hi Froggy, I have not good results as well, but the track was often sloppy these days. Today, I picked a 14/1 winner at Belmont. Proably the weather is now better. I got many big winners at Churchill last weekend. Sometimes there are cold streaks. Your method is very good. Thanks... Greetings Tim

05-11-2008, 05:36 PM	#3
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	As Bob Purdy says dont compare programs

05-11-2008, 05:53 PM	#4
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Live Frog Live!

05-11-2008, 08:10 PM	#6
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 766 I'm Dying at Belmont -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ted, I have almost not been able to get a winner at Belmont. The results with RDSS have less than satisfactory. This is the first race today. The obvious winner is not included as a contender and as such was not exported. When I enter the raw pace lines into SYN II the winner has come up as one of the top two in practically every race since the start of the meet. This is not just an occasional race but a lot of races. Froggy,Sounds like your comparing to me but hey everyone has their own opinion.I hope you get things straightened out.Shoe

05-11-2008, 08:34 PM	#7
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	Shoe, I certainly didn't start out that way. And maybe I am comparing. But If I hadn't I would've had to quit and ask my son for a job as a greeter at Walmart. At least now I know how to work around the problem and keep my head above water. I've always enjoyed your posts as they get right to the point. Good luck to you in your own handicapping. Froggy

05-11-2008, 08:59 PM	#8
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Froggy,Thanks.I screwed up myself today in the 11th at Woodbine.I had the winner on top at 4-1 and had it down to 4 horses to run 2nd it was a 14 horse field.I threw out the 4 who was 50-1 because of the odds needless to say he ran 2nd for a 277.00 ex.Come to think of it that was a pretty low paying exacta somebody was in on it.I know this isnt RDSS related but thought I would reply.

05-11-2008, 10:03 PM	#10
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	Froggy, Belmont is a unique track that has it's own profile. You might want to look for horses that are close at the 2nd call that have a good finishing kick. The software that you use or for that matter most softwares do not have suitable profiling capabilities. If you don't keep a track profile by distance, I suggest that you do. You will be amazed at what it will tell you. Belmont is considered to be a 1.1 track which relates to sustained.