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RDSS 2.2 (and previous versions) Racing Decision Support System - The NEW Version 2.2 |
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09-13-2016, 04:25 PM | #21 |
So Cal Al
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Ted:
I have wanted to mention this for some time, so maybe now is the time to do so. It seems that the auto pace line selection uses 7.5 f races as a selection in sprint races (usually turf races). Since it is usually a 2 turn race that is 1/2 furlong shorter than a mile, it should not be used to compare to sprint lines, if possible. Your thought! |
09-15-2016, 11:15 AM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Al:
I have noticed that 7.5T lines usually generate a way too generous adjusted speed rating and resultant higher placement in the final screens. If matching is something you do, I'd suggest looking only to the six furlong mark, or plan B, do what I did with SA 6.5 turf races. I compared horses that were good at both distances and recorded their adjusted speed ratings (ASR). I mean compare the same horse who ran say a six furlong turf ASR of 80, but who could only run a 72 down the hill. Then I looked at the three fractions given by the program and determined that the 2nd fraction should be ignored (down the hill part mostly). I found that 3F and deceleration along with a mental 8 pt ASR assist would tell me if I should consider a horse further. Good luck with your search. I only use 7.5 lines if no others are available. Regards, |
09-17-2016, 02:29 PM | #23 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
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So Cal Al and Bill...I have had the same problems with 7.5 turf....the Bris program Multi Caps does the same thing, uses that distance as a sprint...the worst track for that is Gulfstream where they run a lot of 7.5 on the turf...I just got to a point where I quit handicapping races where that distance was involved, also the horses at 7.5 T have about a 200 ft run up before the timer starts...doesn't make sense to me.
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09-18-2016, 02:21 PM | #24 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Hey guys I was just wondering if anyone found that adjusted speed ratings for 8.3 distances didn't seem to match up with the 8F and 8.5F ASR's?
I've seen a couple of places where the 8.3 ASRs appear about 8 or more points lower than races with the same splits for 8F and 8.5F. Of course the lower ASR would mean a lower total energy, so unless you were comparing only 8.3 lines to 8.3 lines you might discard a decent runner here and there. For a race in question see the first at Belmont today. the #3 paid $69.00! and you would only get him if you used lines 6 or 7 from 8F and 8.5F |
09-18-2016, 06:38 PM | #25 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Quote:
This has been a problem for a decade for me, I see exactly the same thing about 8 point lower than comparable 8 and 8.5f distances. Hope you and yours are doing great! Richie
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
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10-01-2016, 12:12 PM | #26 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,863
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Quote:
The same case could be made for which 'surfaces' are comparable to today and which are not: at some tracks you would want to make Poly/Tapeta/whatever 'comparable' with Dirt; at some, Turf comparable with Poly, etc, etc. Like the above 7.5f issue, these settings would likely end up track specific though, of - even worse - to/from track/surface specific. You could be changing them every race -- IF you relied on an automated process to choose 'comparable'. Of course it could all be driven by a database of track/distance/surface to/from settings. Or - you could continue keeping a manual eye-ball out and make changes when appropriate Ted
__________________
RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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10-01-2016, 06:26 PM | #27 |
So Cal Al
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Ted, since I'm a 40 year "newbie" at pace line selection, my selection process is based upon 2 steps: (1) check the auto selections, and (2) do my own manual sele.ctions. Most of the time, they match up...but not always. I also factor in other "stuff", especially in maiden turf races in So. Cal.
Speaking of "track specific", the 6.5T race at Santa Anita is a tough challenge in that the sprint turf races form other tracks, and dirt sprints, usually come up to high in Energy and can lead to false contenders. Bill may have come to the same conclusion |
10-02-2016, 01:41 PM | #28 |
So Cal Al
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Upon further review, it looks like Bill has already addressed the 6.5T race at Santa Anita and arrived at a similar conclusion.
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