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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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05-23-2017, 04:31 PM | #21 |
always learning
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe
Posts: 277
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I think Bill V's reason for tossing the 2 was entirely legitimate. I didn't mean to imply by posting the incidental (basically trivial) info I did, that I thought otherwise. Racing is a long-term enterprise, IMO. If you have guidelines for yourself, that serve you well, (and it did look to me also that the 2 was not competitive at this level), then obviously you don't make exceptions, just because it's a "fancy" race that many are watching. I didn't bet the Derby either, but the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, the race before the Derby, was a really decent race to handicap and bet, with a nice result, partly because the handle is so large that day, I guess. I stick to those. I've been trying to systematically read back through all the manuals and Follow Ups. I always learn something I either never knew, or had forgotten.
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05-23-2017, 08:35 PM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
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I agree Dorian....even tho the 2 came up good on my pace ratings...his class was very ????....so I passed as I pass a lot of 3yo races....older horses to me are more predictive, so that's what I usually bet. But I'm usually not surprised when Castellano wins a big race..he has a habit of doing that when he rides for Chad Brown or Pletcher.
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05-23-2017, 09:36 PM | #23 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Blink
Thanks Mitch, Dorian and Ken
In the end , the Preakness is just another race, Yes I did bet a little more, I even bet a exacta, and covered a five horse superfecta box for my dad , I took my profits from the Derby,I also did well on Friday with the Black Eyed Susan and the 12th race , I made a couple hundred dollar profit doing what brought me to the dance , To me phase 1 / VDC said bet the 5 and the 9, The 9 was decent odds , so that requires a back up place bet, The same logic and methods that won for me said the 2 was not a contender, We can not control the odds , and I don't tote watch , So the 5 ended up at 2.20/1 I would have taken my $6.60 horse , But the 2 horse edged out the 5 by a head. Like Trotter says in Let It Ride , " there is a fine line between winning and losing" Yea, the finish line, I congratulate the winners I went on Sunday I was right back at Monmouth, to phase1/ VDC and took my wins , I started to win and have a lot more fun when I learned, Do what is working for YOU , Good Skill |
05-24-2017, 12:06 PM | #24 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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Consistency and Context
The use of a consistent methodology is one of the keys to successful handicapping. As Bill points out he is prepared for the occasional losses that result from applying his methods when applying universally. However, I suggest that while we can never win all the races we wager on, reading and understanding the conditions of every race, understanding the context of that race can aid in increasing the win rate.
Jim Quinn wrote prolifically 20 -30 years ago and was commonly found in the Turf Clubs of Southern California tracks. While i never subscribed to his methods wholeheartedly, what I found most interesting was his concepts which were mostly derived from Result Chart analysis. I am not sure the name of the particular book, I think it was "Handicappers' Condition Book", I still have it in some box somewhere in the house. What struck me was the type of horses back then that he felt were most favored to win NW-1X Allowance races. These were lightly raced horses with the fewest failures at that condition. In the last 20 or so years I have confirmed some of my own observations based upon this concept. 1) Horses that break their maidens early in the year or in a meet, are invariably best animals. 2) Horses that move through their conditions early in the year and meet are better animals. In the Southern California circuit back then you had most of the top barns west of the Mississippi. Whether pointed for the SA meet that began on Dec 26th each year or as the result of innate speed, those winners generally were the most brilliant, the fastest horses that went to the lead and widened. Each month beyond, the quality of the horseflesh that won these races and moved through their next condition were just not as fast and relied on the Pace Scenario to get the wire first. My point is that if you consider the context of the race you are handicapping in selecting your contenders, then apply a consistent use of your proven methods you can elevate your win percentage. |
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