Belmont July 3

[Ryan.p.coli]

I was looking through the card for Thursday at Belmont. This seems like the first race worth betting so far (Maidens/Chalk...ugh). I

Lets walk through the field:

#1: I don't have her as a contender. She hasn't been relevant in the last 4 races.


#2: 3rd favorite and is a contender


#3: Again- She wasn't relevant over the last 4 races. Not a contender:


#4: The second favorite. 2nd race off a layoff. Lost by 28 lengths the last out. I searched for a reason to forgive the last two races. I don't like to make injury assumptions, but this horse just doesn't seem the same. I know it's dropping down in class, but she just wan't remotely relevant in either of its last two race. The only usable lines are over 300 days ago....

I looked for reasons to forgive the last two, but I just can't bring myself to give this horse it's 3rd line back. She's not the same. I am starting to get excited because I just threw out the second favorite.



#5: I'm a little confused about what to do with this horse. 2nd race back was a route in the slop- so it's forgiven. I'm waivering on whether to throw the last race out and give it it's 3rd line back. FOR NOW I am going to give it its 3rd line back... and we will revisit the conversation in a second.

[Ryan.p.coli]

#6 Today's Favorite. Coming off a 171 day layoff. I'm not a huge stickler for layoffs under 180 days. Everyone needs a vacation from time to time right? It's last race was a (+). I'm going to leave it in there for now. I am however noting, that there is cause for concern.

#7 Probably the most intriguing horse in the race. The last race (from last Friday) it was pinched back. That means we get to throw the last race out. I'm going to go with the 2nd line confidently.

#8 Another confusing one. The last race was a tandem with the 7 (Where it was absolutely spanked). 2nd line back is a route. 3rd line is a +... but The energy total doesn't stack up with some of the other horses in the race. We'll make it a contender for now to round out a contender field of 5.


Here is the segments readout with all of our contenders.


Here is the BLBL Readout

[Ryan.p.coli]

Now, for the difficult part. I want to discuss the 5 and the 6.

#5: Take a look at the tandems. The horse lost by 8 lengths to the #7 horse. I'm pretty sure The Hat's matchup rules would say to throw the 5 out. I really don't have an issue doing this considering that her success last year came at a lower claiming level.

#6: Our favorite: Coming off the maiden win, the horse looked in good form. It has since I can make 2 observations from its PP's, neither of which really inspire confidence.
1. The horse got injured at some point hence the declining performance and the short layoffs, followed by the long layoff we will be coming off of today.
2. The horse just couldn't handle the class of it's currently running against.

Now, if we use the paceline from 171 days ago, the horse is still predicted to win. Can we expect it will be the same horse as before? I don't know. I tend to lean towards no. I still don't know if I can throw her out.

Readouts:





I am going to likely bet on the #7/#8 on a 70%/30% 6-5-7 EX. All of this odds permitting.

[Ryan.p.coli]

7 & 1 both scratched. I think that changes things quite a bit.... although the pace of the race shouldn't be too different. It also rained at Belmont last night.. which will add another variable to the mix.

Bill gave some good analysis in the below forum if anyone is interested.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9876

[Bill V.]

Sorry the race took a turn with the scratches and conditions

Thank you Ryan. I hope people take your presentation and concepts to heart.
You are a very encouraging new voice here at Pace and Cap.

This selections area is kind of a white elephant
This race is another example of why the journal of the Sartin methodology
was The Follow Up , not the Imminent

[Bill V.]

This is a product of the game we chose to bet into

If we use the line from over 300 days ago and the horse runs up the track we say oh darn, It must be hurt. If we don't use a line and the horse wins we say oh darn. My 3 did nothing, The fact that it rated so well off the last line should be a indication that this field was not too good. Lost this one

[Ryan.p.coli]

Bill-

No worries at all. Belmont was a chalkfest today. Yawn.

I actually didn't end up betting this race as I was at work and couldn't re-work the race in RDSS.

[Ryan.p.coli]

Bill-

I also wanted to remind you- that there's a reason why you are teaching here. You can't win them all. All you have to do is win one 6/1 or better to make up for 3 losses.