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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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07-30-2021, 12:39 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 778
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Gulfstream park 7/31 race 9
what line will you use for horse 1,3,6,8?
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07-30-2021, 12:46 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 778
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horse 6-10
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07-30-2021, 12:55 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 778
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can some one tell me what line you will use on horse 1,3,6,8,
thank you raymond |
07-30-2021, 07:56 AM | #4 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Thornhill ON
Posts: 437
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Quote:
3 last 6 last 8 line 2 Lawrence
__________________
May all wagers be Winners... |
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07-30-2021, 01:44 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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#1 L 3 V -24 very fast
#3 L 2 V -24 very fast #6 L 1 V 11 normal within range however slow compared to others in here #8 L 3 V -21 very fast This is where a consistent procedure comes in for picking a pace line. Also why your using RDSS. The settings within RDSS will also give you a consistent approach to adjustments. With a recommended setting of -15 & +15 it'll adjust these horses and one should trust the results. Its better than you could do and its applied consistently. Anything under -15 won't be considered and only 50% 0f the -15 will be considered. With the wide variants among so many horses in this race its extremely doubtful you'll find another line for all of them, therefore treat them all alike. The real problem with this race is the UNKNOWN Factors within it. Such as 3 dirt horses and only one are for MTO the #4. The # 9 & 10 are going to try turf and are an unknown quantity. There are a couple 3 yr. old who are on the improve and may keep on improving. A first time Gelding and some new trainers who have only had the horse for less than 3 starts. Definitely not a prime betting situation and ripe for an unset. Scratches may help a little but not enough to elevate the race to a prime betting situation. The 6,9 or 10 could all pay a price however there would have to be some risk reward there. The 10 with a 6-1 ML isn't worth the risk but perhaps the odds should go up and it should after last two performances and long layoff. Tread lightly with just a fun bet. Mitch44 |
07-30-2021, 02:02 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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My two cents:
1 -- Thorn: try both the July 17 and April 18 lines 3 -- Exponential: June 18 race 6 -- Big City Red: try both the July 17 and June 12 lines 8 -- In Honor of Artie: May 1 race Like Mitch44 says, this appears to be a chaos race before scratches. Good luck Richard |
07-30-2021, 02:43 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Horse
1, line 4, don't trust 7.5T lines, especially vs horses who have lines at or near todays distance on the turf. If all you have is 7.5t lines they might be overstating the potential vs the rest of the field. 3, line 1 6, line 1 8, line 5 All of these selections are PROVIDED that each line is within the horses normal energy distribution range. otherwise look again. Once you see what the range of median energys are for these four horses, check to see how close some of the first time turfers run on dirt. They can be contenders if their median energy and total energy are close to the veteran turf horses. Does not happen too often though, but you gotta check. |
07-31-2021, 12:51 PM | #8 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Quote:
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07-31-2021, 03:59 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Double bet with 6 in race 8 to the 1 and 5 in the 9th. Still looking at odds on the 10
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08-01-2021, 02:09 PM | #10 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Quote:
Would you say that it would be a good idea to review all f1 values routinely in selecting lines? I would assume that this situation could exist at other tracks and/or distances. |
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