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03-25-2019, 06:15 AM | #21 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Bill the Wild West table # 1 is doing great with those tickets is because your the # 1 guy at the table.
Wishing you and yours best of health and continued winning. Mitch44 |
03-25-2019, 08:56 AM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,163
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Hi gang. I just took a look at the 8 horse Bill posted and here in my humble opinion on it. Like Mitch I would use line 3 for my pace line. If this horse ends up in my top 5 I go to the next step. I see the it ran a good race in a sprint at 625 n3l. Moving to l2 I see that the horse is up close at the stretch[using Brohamers' definition]. It then falls back from there to the finish. I don't see any trouble noted so as per Quirins' form factor guidelines I charged it with a failure for failing to accomplish what it did in line 3 and what it's being ask to do today[beat 625 nl3 in a sprint]. Next I look at line 1. Again a sprint vs 625 n3l. It's marginally up close at the stretch then folds again. Another failure right. No it's a bad race,but not a failure, because that race was at 7f today it's going shorter by 1 fur therefore the stretch loss doesn't count Additionally it had trouble in the race and is dropping today. So I have a horse with 2 bad races in a row with 1 failure. Unless the rest of my contenders have flaws this is a horse I would downgrade.
Tim
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03-25-2019, 09:26 AM | #23 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,539
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Nice work Tim!
Would straight win bets on the number one slot have been profitable? What about betting your top two? It is hard to get prices in that one slot. I know you said you didn’t necessarily bet any of these situations. But which bet had the highest ROI? Boxing the top three in the exactor? The triactor? If you didn’t work it out don’t worry about it. I was just curious. When you move horses up or down using non-Sartin info I assume you are using trainer and jocket stats along with track models? Mitch is right in that it is those last little moves of intuition that can make a big difference. Thanks for sharing, Mike |
03-25-2019, 10:50 AM | #24 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,163
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Hi Mike how you doing?. I am a 2 horse win bettor and use the odds to dictate bets. If the 2 I want to bet have low odds I will forgo a win bet and instead look to see if any money can be made playing a dd or ex if not I pass the race. I don't play many of the other type of the exoticis
The only time I look at trainer stats is to see how they do in certain areas such as horses coming off layoffs,or with claims etc. With jocks most of the time I couldn't tell you whose on my choices. I found that most of the time my contenders have good trainers and jocks involved with them. I never tracked whether a straight win bet on the number 1 would produce a profit, but since most of them are of the low paying variety, I would guess it wouldn't. When it comes to ex betting I check the probable payoffs. I will key my top 2 sometimes but most times I box. Doc taught us that for exs box the top 3 and for tris box the top 4. I find win bets, and dds are my best source of profit. Hope to see you at the Spa this year. Tim
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03-26-2019, 01:58 AM | #25 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Hello Pook / Mike,
Tim and I do many of the same things such as picking contenders and pace lines. We apply a consistent approach which gives us consistent results. We both analyze our contenders PP's and move horses up and down based on our analysis. Tim tends to move horses up and down a little more that me. When I'm in doubt on something I tend to leave it alone as I have a safety net with the two horse bet and also the odds of a horse. I'm not afraid to follow my analyses such as the BC Classic when they made Baffert's horse(Arrogate) the favorite, while ranked # 1. I threw him out of my top 4 and he was beaten badly out of the money and SF.I deemed him to have declining form and not the same horse. We both use several of the same things however we both use some different ones. For example Lt1 uses Scott's form factors and I don't. They are effective but for me too time consuming. Years ago I used Taulbot's angles, again effective but drudgery and time consuming. We each have probably 45 or 50 years of handicapping experience and have developed a synaptic response to some things or situations. Those can't be taught and experience is the key. Other things we both have done research, kept records which has honed our skills. Today everyone is into instant gratification, work are you kidding? Its amazing what can be learned with basic uncomplicated records and research. I do look at trainer stats but they can be very deceptive, their not a primary factor for me. I also don't pay attention to jockey's and don't know who is riding my horse. Its all about the horse. The trainer has a greater influence than jockeys and the horse a greater influence than trainers. People would be surprised to know that I don't keep a track profile, model, don't believe in the fulcrum, pay no attention to odds for contenders or get off a horse because of its odds because to reap the rewards one must make the bet. I don't worry about internal moves as all that is within the factors and ratings etc. and over rated. I do look at moves if a horse is stretching out or cutting back. I'm able to handle cutbacks and stretch-out's with the tools within the program and experience. I don't use the Tandem concept but did many years back but found it to be hit and miss with no real advantage. I don't pay attention to layoffs regardless of the length of time, if it meets my criteria the longer the layoff the better. Also weight is not a primary factor and I pay absolutely no attention to it. I do believe in the match up but I'm not that good with it, but am aware of its concepts and employ it at times. The reason I don't use a track profile or model is because I play so many different tracks. The work would prevent me from doing anything else to include betting. If I only played one track I would keep them. And I would recommend others keep them to up their game. I've learned to circumvent them and shortcut them or just ignore them. Sartin said 80% was from the match up of the horses within the race. I believe its even greater and within the RDSS program its all done for you. When we came up all we had was the racing form and we became very efficient with it. No speed figures, computers etc. I guess analyzing PP's is a lost art as everyone is into a black box approach today. Some things just jump off the page at us and others require some extra work or analysis. Best of luck Mike, Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 03-26-2019 at 02:15 AM. |
03-26-2019, 11:34 AM | #26 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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consistancy
Hi
I think Mitch's and Tims outline presentations are great Thank you to Tim for a very well presented look at your consistent approach to winning Good Skill today and always |
03-26-2019, 12:15 PM | #27 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,163
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Thanks Bill. Us old timers have to try and carry on Docs work and thanks to you and Ted we get the chance to.
Tim
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Trust but verify |
03-26-2019, 01:24 PM | #28 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Thanks Bill.
I think some things are more a mindset than anything else. Layoffs or pace lines as an example are only a problem if you perceive them to be and then they do become a problem. Having an open mind steers the mind toward success along with positive thoughts. Some are like a person loaded down with gold who refuse to give it up and drowns. If not winning or doing well its obvious, get rid of those old heavy burdens and try something else. Mitch44 |
03-26-2019, 04:26 PM | #29 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,539
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Quote:
Ask the questions. They will answer. Mike |
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