Automated Paceline Selection: 'Population Sample 2nd Call' - Pace and Cap

SilentRun · 05-14-2012, 11:29 PM

Ted,

I have started looking at using the PSS feature and I have a question based on the results I am seeing. I took a sample race from MNR Race 4, 5/01/12.

In the first screen I used the "All Horses" option with the following POH results.

#2 line 7, #5 line 10 and # 4 line 8.

I then ran each of the above horses (2, 5, 4) using "This horse" option and in looking at the results I see that the best POH line (in red)
is a different line number, (#2 line 6, #5 line 1 and #4 line 5). Refer to screens below.

Maybe I need some clarification or my lack of understanding but should not the line number in red be considered the top 2nd call POH ?

Thanks,

Ernie

Ted Craven · 05-17-2012, 05:04 PM

Ernie,

Very sorry it took a few days to respond to this. Here is an extract from the Release Notes for Beta 2, Page 3, describing the different PSS (Paceline Selection Strategies):

PSS: Population Sample. An experimental Strategy based on 2nd Call PoH Adjusted Velocity. Based on the number of lines in a horse’s PPs, the line with the 1st or 2nd or 3rd best 2nd Call PoH velocity is selected. Experiment at your leisure ...

The book on applied statistical methods by Douglas Hubbard 'How to Measure Anything' suggests how to find a representative range of values for a collection of items (a large or small collection) by taking a limited sample of the larger population. The sample taken depends on an estimate of the size of the total population. The resulting estimate is supposed to be an accurate assessment of the likely range of values, with a degree of confidence approaching 90%.

A similar statistical measurement approach is used as a component of NewPace.

The Population Sample PSS looks at the 2nd Call Velocity and selects the 'nth' ranked 'high' value depending on how many pacelines are available to measure. The 'low' value (representing the low range of the sample for each horse) is omitted.

For 9 or more lines, it selects the 3rd highest
For 6-8 lines, it selects the 2nd highest
For less than 6 lines, it selects the highest

In your example above, all the horses had 9 or more valid pacelines, so the rank of 2nd Call Velocity chosen for each horse was 3rd. This accounts for why the checked line always identifies the Yellow coloured 2nd Call (3rd ranked). The 1st ranked 2nd Call Velocity would only be selected when there are 5 or less valid pacelines.

You mentioned the 'All Horses' setting versus the 'This Horse' setting on the PSS window: this merely tells the PSS module to find a line either for the current horse you're looking at, or for All the horses in the race. The same PSS rules apply regardless.

I hope this clarifies what is going on. Good luck with your research!

Ted

SilentRun · 05-17-2012, 07:40 PM

Ted,

Thanks for the reply....somehow I missed this description in the release notes.
I know that this is the book that Dave Schwartz referred to in New Pace.

This is not what I had in mind because I really want to stick to recent pacelines but I'll work with it a bit and see if it is worthwhile going further.

Ernie

05-14-2012, 11:29 PM	#1
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	Automated Paceline Selection: 'Population Sample 2nd Call' Ted, I have started looking at using the PSS feature and I have a question based on the results I am seeing. I took a sample race from MNR Race 4, 5/01/12. In the first screen I used the "All Horses" option with the following POH results. #2 line 7, #5 line 10 and # 4 line 8. I then ran each of the above horses (2, 5, 4) using "This horse" option and in looking at the results I see that the best POH line (in red) is a different line number, (#2 line 6, #5 line 1 and #4 line 5). Refer to screens below. Maybe I need some clarification or my lack of understanding but should not the line number in red be considered the top 2nd call POH ? Thanks, Ernie Attached Images

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05-17-2012, 05:04 PM	#2
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	Ernie, Very sorry it took a few days to respond to this. Here is an extract from the Release Notes for Beta 2, Page 3, describing the different PSS (Paceline Selection Strategies): PSS: Population Sample. An experimental Strategy based on 2nd Call PoH Adjusted Velocity. Based on the number of lines in a horse’s PPs, the line with the 1st or 2nd or 3rd best 2nd Call PoH velocity is selected. Experiment at your leisure ... The book on applied statistical methods by Douglas Hubbard 'How to Measure Anything' suggests how to find a representative range of values for a collection of items (a large or small collection) by taking a limited sample of the larger population. The sample taken depends on an estimate of the size of the total population. The resulting estimate is supposed to be an accurate assessment of the likely range of values, with a degree of confidence approaching 90%. A similar statistical measurement approach is used as a component of NewPace. The Population Sample PSS looks at the 2nd Call Velocity and selects the 'nth' ranked 'high' value depending on how many pacelines are available to measure. The 'low' value (representing the low range of the sample for each horse) is omitted. For 9 or more lines, it selects the 3rd highest For 6-8 lines, it selects the 2nd highest For less than 6 lines, it selects the highest In your example above, all the horses had 9 or more valid pacelines, so the rank of 2nd Call Velocity chosen for each horse was 3rd. This accounts for why the checked line always identifies the Yellow coloured 2nd Call (3rd ranked). The 1st ranked 2nd Call Velocity would only be selected when there are 5 or less valid pacelines. You mentioned the 'All Horses' setting versus the 'This Horse' setting on the PSS window: this merely tells the PSS module to find a line either for the current horse you're looking at, or for All the horses in the race. The same PSS rules apply regardless. I hope this clarifies what is going on. Good luck with your research! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-17-2012 at 05:08 PM.

05-17-2012, 07:40 PM	#3
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	Ted, Thanks for the reply....somehow I missed this description in the release notes. I know that this is the book that Dave Schwartz referred to in New Pace. This is not what I had in mind because I really want to stick to recent pacelines but I'll work with it a bit and see if it is worthwhile going further. Ernie