Two Races A Day, Keeps the Profits Coming this way - Pace and Cap

Latekick · 08-10-2016, 02:16 PM

Todays races: Del Mar 5, Del Mar 7 (Note, these screenshots are before scratches and before hides)

Del Mar 5th:
A cheap bottom of the barrel Maiden claimer is where i am aiming to break my maiden in this series i will be doing for the rest of the summer. It is something that i usually do alone, for majority of the races on the days card i handicapped, but i figured why not write about it and see how other players played the race and what was done right and wrong.

I will start with what my eye catches first off of my readouts. The #6 STARRING has a HUGE early advantage on the E-L graph, although i think he has very weak readouts, sometimes these types of horses just run the rest of the field off of their feet.

The top two horses, #9 PAMS and #10 CANT look strong in this race, good prices as well. Notice how they are ranked #1 and #2 VDC with no other ties for #1 and #2. Both horses prefer to spend their energy late, therefore i would demand that they have good LPR and HID ratings. Both have these requirements and seem like strong plays especially at the odds they may both go off at.

Contenders: 6-9-10
Top two: 9-10

Race 7: A high level Optional claimer with a few question marks.

What catches my eye first is that both the #2 CHERUB and #6 KALLIFSTER have not run in over 2 months. I checked both work tabs and see both are working well, so nothing to worry about.

The #3 HEIR is 2/1 ML which is already to low for a play, so if this horse stays at it's ML or gets bet any lower, he is an obvious hide.

Once again i cannot find a reason to go back past the top two, unless of course they fall below 2/1. Sometimes it takes some digging to be able to get the winner, but in the case of todays two races it seems as there is no reason to dig and be clever. #6 KALIFSTER is a early pressing type with good EP ratings as well as good LP ratings. The TT is a bit of a concern being that he is rated last in this column, however i think that when so many other readouts are positive for that specific horse, sometimes you can overlook a very low and badly rated rating. #1 CLEVER is obviously a strong bet at anything over 2/1. A horse that uses his energy late, and is rated first in all important readouts for a late energy running closer.

Contenders: 1-2-6
Top two: 1-6

Record:0-0
Amount Wagered: $0
Amount returned: $0 ( so far

Latekick · 08-10-2016, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Latekick

Todays races: Del Mar 5, Del Mar 7 (Note, these screenshots are before scratches and before hides)

Del Mar 5th:
A cheap bottom of the barrel Maiden claimer is where i am aiming to break my maiden in this series i will be doing for the rest of the summer. It is something that i usually do alone, for majority of the races on the days card i handicapped, but i figured why not write about it and see how other players played the race and what was done right and wrong.

I will start with what my eye catches first off of my readouts. The #6 STARRING has a HUGE early advantage on the E-L graph, although i think he has very weak readouts, sometimes these types of horses just run the rest of the field off of their feet.

The top two horses, #9 PAMS and #10 CANT look strong in this race, good prices as well. Notice how they are ranked #1 and #2 VDC with no other ties for #1 and #2. Both horses prefer to spend their energy late, therefore i would demand that they have good LPR and HID ratings. Both have these requirements and seem like strong plays especially at the odds they may both go off at.

Contenders: 6-9-10
Top two: 9-10

Race 7: A high level Optional claimer with a few question marks.

What catches my eye first is that both the #2 CHERUB and #6 KALLIFSTER have not run in over 2 months. I checked both work tabs and see both are working well, so nothing to worry about.

The #3 HEIR is 2/1 ML which is already to low for a play, so if this horse stays at it's ML or gets bet any lower, he is an obvious hide.

Once again i cannot find a reason to go back past the top two, unless of course they fall below 2/1. Sometimes it takes some digging to be able to get the winner, but in the case of todays two races it seems as there is no reason to dig and be clever. #6 KALIFSTER is a early pressing type with good EP ratings as well as good LP ratings. The TT is a bit of a concern being that he is rated last in this column, however i think that when so many other readouts are positive for that specific horse, sometimes you can overlook a very low and badly rated rating. #1 CLEVER is obviously a strong bet at anything over 2/1. A horse that uses his energy late, and is rated first in all important readouts for a late energy running closer.

Contenders: 1-2-6
Top two: 1-6

Record:0-0
Amount Wagered: $0
Amount returned: $0 ( so far

Here are the results from today,
Had a favorite win the 5th, should have passed but couldn't force myself to pass up the prices on my top two.
A nice win in the 7th with a bang bang exacta. Didn't play the exacta, all of this will be based on $2 win bets.

Record: 1/2
Amount Wagered: $8
Amount returned: $7.40

Latekick · 08-10-2016, 08:15 PM

Payouts

Latekick · 08-11-2016, 12:29 PM

Thursday August 11th
My two races today will be Saratoga 7, and Canterbury 8

Saratoga 7th: The first thing that catches my eye is the high energy expenditure that the #10 SOUTHERN has. In these cheap maidens, sometimes the early energy can run the others off of their feet, not my selection but a contender if either of my two fall 2/1 or lower.
The two i like are #2 CATS, and #6 BLARNE. #2 CATS is a pressing type horse and is well ranked across the board in necessary ratings for a presser. 4/1 ML and am hoping he stays or drifts up from that. He is a long time maiden as is my other selection, but i believe this is a weak field and he will be able to break through.
My other horse will be #6 BLARNEY who is listed as 3/1 on the ML. He is an 0-7 maiden with 3 seconds, but as i said i believe this is a weaker field and he may be able to breakthrough in this spot. He uses his energy rather evenly and can stay close enough to still have a good late kick and finish strongly against these.

Contenders: 2-6-10
Top two: 2-6

Canterbury 8: A mid level claimer that may offer some prices being that it is a pretty wide open field.
My first selection will be #2 PJ's. Top ranked horse with no negative class drop or form defect to be worried about. She is a horse is spends her energy rather evenly, and once again can stay close and maintain a good late kick against these with her superb ratings in LP and HID.

My next selection is #3 STELLA. She is a horse that will spend her energy early and ranks well in this field in early ratings. Hopefully she is able to press a pace that is a bit slower than what she is used to facing and still have something left in the tank for late. She is 7/2 ML.

Latekick · 08-11-2016, 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Latekick

Thursday August 11th
My two races today will be Saratoga 7, and Canterbury 8

Saratoga 7th: The first thing that catches my eye is the high energy expenditure that the #10 SOUTHERN has. In these cheap maidens, sometimes the early energy can run the others off of their feet, not my selection but a contender if either of my two fall 2/1 or lower.
The two i like are #2 CATS, and #6 BLARNE. #2 CATS is a pressing type horse and is well ranked across the board in necessary ratings for a presser. 4/1 ML and am hoping he stays or drifts up from that. He is a long time maiden as is my other selection, but i believe this is a weak field and he will be able to break through.
My other horse will be #6 BLARNEY who is listed as 3/1 on the ML. He is an 0-7 maiden with 3 seconds, but as i said i believe this is a weaker field and he may be able to breakthrough in this spot. He uses his energy rather evenly and can stay close enough to still have a good late kick and finish strongly against these.

Contenders: 2-6-10
Top two: 2-6

Canterbury 8: A mid level claimer that may offer some prices being that it is a pretty wide open field.
My first selection will be #2 PJ's. Top ranked horse with no negative class drop or form defect to be worried about. She is a horse is spends her energy rather evenly, and once again can stay close and maintain a good late kick against these with her superb ratings in LP and HID.

My next selection is #3 STELLA. She is a horse that will spend her energy early and ranks well in this field in early ratings. Hopefully she is able to press a pace that is a bit slower than what she is used to facing and still have something left in the tank for late. She is 7/2 ML.

And here are the screenshots

Tim Y · 08-11-2016, 05:37 PM

Canterbury 8th, if they all run seems to come down to letting the odds board separate these final four 3 Stellabrini 4 Da Kleinen Schatzi 2 P J's Angel 8 Renamed

Long shot 5 could be out front for a long time, so may have to add that UNDER to exotic wagers.

3
5
2 came out of the fastest paced races

Latekick · 08-11-2016, 07:13 PM

Tim i agree with you on the 5, although i dont like him to win i believe he will offer some value underneath. He has the type of readouts of a horse that blasts out and gives everything its got and falters late, but at a price thats exactly what I'm looking for in the 2 and 3 hole in exotics. Thanks for pointing that out.

Bit of an unfortunate day so far, my spot play at saratoga i got caught near the wire and ran 2nd, but to put the icing on the cake i hit FREE N CLEAR in the 9th at $19.60 but didn't have it as a spot play for my project i have going on here! Oh well thats the way it goes! Hopefully this Canterbury 8th can provide a price!

Tim Y · 08-11-2016, 10:47 PM

6 is a big underlay here

Tim Y · 08-11-2016, 10:51 PM

4 2 5 6 with the generous overlay 4) at 5/1 on top

Latekick · 08-11-2016, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y

6 is a big underlay here

Luckily i noticed one of my choices #2 PJ ended up dropping below 2/1, so i filled in my alternate which was the #4 and she was a generous price.

I realized looking back that i forgot to post my contenders and top two for my 2nd screenshot. Unfortunate. All in all I'm glad i checked the tote and was able to make the fill in. I pretty much religiously stick to never betting a horse under 2/1 unless under very specific circumstances.

Good day, could have been much better if i would have chosen the correct spot play race at Saratoga, but all in all a good day.

08-11-2016, 10:47 PM	#8
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	6 is a big underlay here __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

08-11-2016, 10:51 PM	#9
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	4 2 5 6 with the generous overlay 4) at 5/1 on top __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."

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08-10-2016, 02:16 PM	#1
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Two Races A Day, Keeps the Profits Coming this way Todays races: Del Mar 5, Del Mar 7 (Note, these screenshots are before scratches and before hides) Del Mar 5th: A cheap bottom of the barrel Maiden claimer is where i am aiming to break my maiden in this series i will be doing for the rest of the summer. It is something that i usually do alone, for majority of the races on the days card i handicapped, but i figured why not write about it and see how other players played the race and what was done right and wrong. I will start with what my eye catches first off of my readouts. The #6 STARRING has a HUGE early advantage on the E-L graph, although i think he has very weak readouts, sometimes these types of horses just run the rest of the field off of their feet. The top two horses, #9 PAMS and #10 CANT look strong in this race, good prices as well. Notice how they are ranked #1 and #2 VDC with no other ties for #1 and #2. Both horses prefer to spend their energy late, therefore i would demand that they have good LPR and HID ratings. Both have these requirements and seem like strong plays especially at the odds they may both go off at. Contenders: 6-9-10 Top two: 9-10 Race 7: A high level Optional claimer with a few question marks. What catches my eye first is that both the #2 CHERUB and #6 KALLIFSTER have not run in over 2 months. I checked both work tabs and see both are working well, so nothing to worry about. The #3 HEIR is 2/1 ML which is already to low for a play, so if this horse stays at it's ML or gets bet any lower, he is an obvious hide. Once again i cannot find a reason to go back past the top two, unless of course they fall below 2/1. Sometimes it takes some digging to be able to get the winner, but in the case of todays two races it seems as there is no reason to dig and be clever. #6 KALIFSTER is a early pressing type with good EP ratings as well as good LP ratings. The TT is a bit of a concern being that he is rated last in this column, however i think that when so many other readouts are positive for that specific horse, sometimes you can overlook a very low and badly rated rating. #1 CLEVER is obviously a strong bet at anything over 2/1. A horse that uses his energy late, and is rated first in all important readouts for a late energy running closer. Contenders: 1-2-6 Top two: 1-6 Record:0-0 Amount Wagered: $0 Amount returned: $0 ( so far Attached Images Last edited by Latekick; 08-10-2016 at 02:18 PM.

08-10-2016, 08:15 PM	#3
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Payouts Attached Images

08-11-2016, 12:29 PM	#4
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Thursday August 11th My two races today will be Saratoga 7, and Canterbury 8 Saratoga 7th: The first thing that catches my eye is the high energy expenditure that the #10 SOUTHERN has. In these cheap maidens, sometimes the early energy can run the others off of their feet, not my selection but a contender if either of my two fall 2/1 or lower. The two i like are #2 CATS, and #6 BLARNE. #2 CATS is a pressing type horse and is well ranked across the board in necessary ratings for a presser. 4/1 ML and am hoping he stays or drifts up from that. He is a long time maiden as is my other selection, but i believe this is a weak field and he will be able to break through. My other horse will be #6 BLARNEY who is listed as 3/1 on the ML. He is an 0-7 maiden with 3 seconds, but as i said i believe this is a weaker field and he may be able to breakthrough in this spot. He uses his energy rather evenly and can stay close enough to still have a good late kick and finish strongly against these. Contenders: 2-6-10 Top two: 2-6 Canterbury 8: A mid level claimer that may offer some prices being that it is a pretty wide open field. My first selection will be #2 PJ's. Top ranked horse with no negative class drop or form defect to be worried about. She is a horse is spends her energy rather evenly, and once again can stay close and maintain a good late kick against these with her superb ratings in LP and HID. My next selection is #3 STELLA. She is a horse that will spend her energy early and ranks well in this field in early ratings. Hopefully she is able to press a pace that is a bit slower than what she is used to facing and still have something left in the tank for late. She is 7/2 ML.

08-11-2016, 05:37 PM	#6
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Canterbury 8th, if they all run seems to come down to letting the odds board separate these final four 3 Stellabrini 4 Da Kleinen Schatzi 2 P J's Angel 8 Renamed Long shot 5 could be out front for a long time, so may have to add that UNDER to exotic wagers. 3 5 2 came out of the fastest paced races __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 08-11-2016 at 05:43 PM.

08-11-2016, 07:13 PM	#7
Latekick Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 389	Tim i agree with you on the 5, although i dont like him to win i believe he will offer some value underneath. He has the type of readouts of a horse that blasts out and gives everything its got and falters late, but at a price thats exactly what I'm looking for in the 2 and 3 hole in exotics. Thanks for pointing that out. Bit of an unfortunate day so far, my spot play at saratoga i got caught near the wire and ran 2nd, but to put the icing on the cake i hit FREE N CLEAR in the 9th at $19.60 but didn't have it as a spot play for my project i have going on here! Oh well thats the way it goes! Hopefully this Canterbury 8th can provide a price!