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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 08-15-2014, 09:06 AM   #1
Ted Craven
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Alabama Stakes 2014 Saratoga

Greetings from beautiful Saratoga! Here's an early look at Saturday's (August 16) Alabama Stakes, G1 - the premier Summer race for 3 YO Fillies. As usual, we'll take a deeper look tonight at our seminar here at Saratoga, but it could be interesting.

Here's a preliminary look - I'll post further analysis tonight or tomorrow.

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Just for those who are keeping score at home, I think we have picked (and pre-posted) the last 5 winners or so in our top 2 horses, plus several juicy exactas from these Friday night Saratoga Seminars

Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-15-2014 at 10:04 PM. Reason: Corrected Analysis
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Old 08-15-2014, 10:14 PM   #2
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(Please Note: initial analysis above was updated from original post - I mistakenly used a non-standard (for me) adjustment setting.)

From the Saratoga Friday night Seminar 'brain-trust' , here is a betting menu based on the above final selections. We feel there's a good opportunity to bet against the favourite #8 Stopchargingmaria, at least for Win.

Win: #6 Fortune Pearl (2 lines better than everyone else) and #9 Size - both at juicy ML odds

Exacta: 6-9 / 6-9-8-1 (2 units)
Exacta: 6-9 / 6-9-8-4-1 (1 unit)

Tri: 6-9 / 6-9-8 / 6-9-8-4-1 (2 units)
Tri: 6-9 / 6-9-8-4-1 / 6-9-8-4-1 (1 unit)

Super: same as Tri / with ALL

Further updates tomorrow, if scratches.

Good luck All!

Ted
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Old 08-16-2014, 08:29 AM   #3
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Just curious, why is the 7 Catch My Drift listed as a non-contender? Is it because of the distance, or another factor?
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Old 08-16-2014, 08:43 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justin13892002 View Post
Just curious, why is the 7 Catch My Drift listed as a non-contender? Is it because of the distance, or another factor?
Hey Justin,

Agreed, Catch My Drift looks like a 'barn burner' with that 93 SR last out. My opinion, and the consensus of our group, was that true Win contention for a G1 race like this - and specifically against true Graded Stakes tested competition - must likewise be proven in Graded competition. Catch has had 2 races, the last an Optional Claimer (it beat a horse who was running to be claimed for $20K!). The 93 SR (or corresponding Total Energy fig) is too high above it only other race to determine if it is aberrant. It could be on the RAPID improve, but we don't know that from the PP info given.

So - a consistent application of qualities for a Graded Stake, probably means this horse needs more seasoning. Perhaps it does belong somewhere in your vertical bets. Perhaps it will improve dramatically further. Perhaps ...

Anyway, that's my rationale.

Good luck!

Ted
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Old 08-16-2014, 11:12 AM   #5
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Catch My Drift may turn out to be a super horse. However, at this point in time, we came to the conclusion that at this point in time this was an overly ambitious placement. I do want to emphasize that we were very high on Fortune Pearl and think she is the most likely winner at a decent price.
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Old 08-16-2014, 02:19 PM   #6
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Ted, my thought is that if the 7 goes to the lead and the 9 goes with him (2 pushing the pace also) it will hurt his chances. If he stocks the pace setters his chances will be better.
I like the the 6 Fortune Pearl, especially if runs up-to line 3

Mike
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